Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 113.743 | EURUSD 1.18135 | AUDUSD 0.77037 | NZDUSD 0.68709 | USDCAD 1.27965 | USDCHF 0.98964 | GBPUSD 1.32597 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.18330 | 1.18125
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 113.712 | 113.37
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.32793 | 1.32592
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.98961 | 0.98854
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.77174 | 0.76972
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.28110 | 1.27858
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.68980 | 0.68721
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.16993 | 1.16851
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.89162 | 0.89022
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 134.379 | 134.095
For today
- EUR: The Euro slowly pushed from the 1.1815 areas to push above the 1.1830 levels before holding around the 1.1825 areas in quiet trading through to the grey hour, Topside congestion likely through the 1.1850 areas and increasing on a move to the 1.1880 levels with stronger offers moving into the 1.1900 levels with strong congestion likely behind the level. Downside bids light back through the 1.1800 areas with some congestion on a push through 1.1780 and into the 1.1760-40 levels before stronger bids start to appear with possible further congestion as the market pushes through the level and into the 1.1700 areas, weak stops on a push below the 1.1680 levels will likely see some bids into the 1.1660 levels and stronger bids through to 1.1640.
- GBP: Cable rose from the opening levels to run towards the 1.3280 areas before slipping back again to hold in a tight range just above the 1.3260 levels into the grey hour. Offers to the topside through the 1.3270 areas and strengthening into the 1.3300 level with weak stops on a push through the 1.3330 likely and opening up the market to a test towards the 1.3360 areas with congestive offers running into the 1.3400 levels, downside bids light through the 1.3200 with some congestive bids however, stops are possibly on a move back through the 1.3150 areas opening up a fresh attempt to push cleanly through the 1.3100 levels.
- JPY: USDJPY dipped slightly from the opening initially running around the 113.60 areas before limited demand into the Tokyo fix saw the market testing the 113.70 levels to make the high for the session, the market again started to slip and the move through the lows saw the market dip on weak stops and trade through to the 113.40 levels before starting a slow recovery to hold around the 113.50 level through to the grey hour. Topside offers still strong above the 114.00 areas with those offers likely to continue through to the 114.20-30 areas before weak stops appear and the market opens to a push through to the 1.1480-115.00 level and stronger stops with some light barriers, weak stops likely into the 115.20 areas with strong offers beginning to appear on a move towards the 115.50 levels. Downside bids light through to the 113.20-40 areas with some congestive bids before stronger bids appear on a dip through the figure area and possibly opening a stronger move through to the 112.20 areas before a reappearance of stronger bids.
- AUD: A light probe through the 77 cent levels on the move into the Tokyo session however the market eventually pushed slowly into the 0.7715 areas before slowly moving back to the opening level. Topside offers weak through to the 0.7735 areas and the possibility of a limited short squeeze if there is any impetus in that direction however, congestion into the 0.7775 areas sees the market limited for the time being with offers continuing through into the 78 cent level, downside bids still remain in the 77 cent area with a push through the 0.7680 areas likely to open up the downside a little with weak stops appearing and the market then congested around the 0.7640-60 areas with that downside through the 0.7640 likely to see stronger stops appearing however, the congestion is likely to continue and limits any really quick movement and the downside potential for the moment.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
MXN:
Central Bank boosts currency hedge
USD:
Trump wants to make mark on FED but calls Yellen Terrific
Trump to make fair deal with NAFTA, you have to terminate it
Trump my people negotiating NAFTA will have to get tougher
3rd Navy Carrier group to move into the N. Korea theatre
CAD:
BoC Dovish tone prompts speculation of move to January for next hike
TRY:
Turkey’s Lira sinks on financing risk
EUR:
Catalan parliament to meet Thursday at 5pm in Barcelona
Catalan parliament to hold plenary session, may declare independence
ZAR:
Ratings downgrades loom as S. Africa’s debt burden mounts
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (NZD) Sep A -1143M | C -900M | P -1235M | R -1179M
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Corporate Service Price Y/Y Sep A 0.90% | C 0.80% | P 0.80%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Import Price Index Q/Q Q3 A -1.60% | C -1.50% | P -0.10%
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GfK Consumer Confidence Nov C 10.8 | P 10.8
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone M3 Y/Y Sep C 5.00% | P 5.00%
10:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CBI Realized Sales Oct C 14 | P 42
11:45Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Rate Decision C 0.00% | P 0.00%
12:30Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Press Conference
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Inventories Sep (P) P 0.90%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (OCT 21) C 236K | P 222K
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Advance Goods Trade Balance (USD) Sep C -63.8B | P -62.9B
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Inventories M/M Sep C 1.00% | P 0.90%
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Pending Home Sales M/M Sep C 0.60% | P -2.60%
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P 51B
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Harry Hindsight
- EUR: With NAFTA negotiations coming into focus again the Euro eventually started trading slowly higher, opening around the 1.1765 areas and slowly drifted through the 1.1755 levels and based through to the grey hours in a tight range, the move into London started to see a steady rally with the market pushing through to the 1.1780 levels into the NYK session with decent numbers in the US the USD started to lose ground as further comments from NAFTA started to filter through the market and the Euro eventually pushed through the 1.1800 areas only to come to a halt just above the 1.1815 areas with resistance holding through to the close of the session finishing just off the highs and unable to dip back through 1.1800.
- GBP: A quiet session through the Asian session with the market holding quietly around the 1.3130 levels and the move into the grey hour saw nervous selling testing through the 1.3120 levels to set the lows, the release of a better quarter GDP number saw the market rise quickly from the lows to the 1.3160 levels and then a steady climb through to the 1.3200 levels triggering some weak stops on a break of the 1.3220 areas testing through towards the 1.3260 areas before struggling and ranging around the 1.3240-60 levels the market tested slightly higher into the NYK session but generally held in that range to the close finishing just off the highs.
- JPY: Ranging around the 113.90 levels through the Asian session the market struggled for news and movement until the move into the London session, the move on Cable saw the USDJPY rallying sharply as the GBP/JPY cross weakened the JPY and the USDJPY pushed to the 114.20 areas holding through into the NYK early session before dropping back through the figure level and triggering some weak stops to quickly take the market back to the 113.70 areas, a slow decline took the market to the low of the day around the 113.50 level before starting a slow recovery and a return to the 113.80 levels for a close a little short of the opening level.
- AUD: A quiet start to the session saw the Oz drop back quickly as the CPI numbers came in lower than expected with Oz quickly pushing through the 0.7775 and congestion to test quickly to the 0.7735 areas, the market slowly pushed through to the 0.7720 areas for the move into the grey hour and once London and a slow decline to the 77 cent level, the market based along the level through to the end of London with a minor drop below the figure before finishing the day just above.
Yesterday’s premiership results
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Q/Q Q3 A 0.60% | C 0.80% | P 0.20%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Q3 A 1.80% | C 2.00% | P 1.90%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI RBA Trimmed Mean Q/Q Q3 A 0.40% | C 0.50% | P 0.50%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI RBA Trimmed Mean Y/Y Q3 A 1.80% | C 2.00% | P 1.80%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI RBA Weighted Median Q/Q Q3 A 0.30% | C 0.50% | P 0.50%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI RBA Weighted Median Y/Y Q3 A 1.90% | C 2.00% | P 1.80% | R 1.90%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â UBS Consumption Indicator Sep A 1.56 | P 1.53
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Business Climate Oct A 116.7 | C 115.1 | P 115.2 | R 115.3
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Expectations Oct A 109.1 | C 107.3 | P 107.4 | 107.5
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Current Assessment Oct A 124.8 | C 123.5 | P 123.6 | R 123.7
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q3 (A) A 0.40% | C 0.30% | P 0.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Y/Y Q3 (A) A 1.50% | C 1.50% | P 1.50%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Index of Services 3M/3M Aug A 0.40% | C 0.40% | P 0.50%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Durable Goods Orders Sep (P) A 2.20% | C 1.00% | P 2.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Durables Ex Transportation Sep (P) A 0.70% | C 0.50% | P 0.50%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index M/M Aug A 0.70% | C 0.40% | P 0.20% | R 0.40%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoC Rate Decision A 1.00% | C 1.00% | P 1.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Home Sales Sep A 667K | C 556K | P 560K | R 561K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A 0.9M | C -2.6M | P -5.7M
Good Luck,
Andy
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