Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 113.986 | EURUSD 1.1650 | AUDUSD 0.76611 | NZDUSD 0.68413 | USDCAD 1.28459 | USDCHF 0.99773 | GBPUSD 1.31609 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.16547 | 1.16247
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 114.269 | 114.00
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31535 | 1.31131
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99898 | 0.99727
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.76642 | 0.76258
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.28740 | 1.28483
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.68468 | 0.68183
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.16282 | 1.16109
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88681 | 0.8857
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 132.943 | 132.595
For today
- EUR: A slow decline with steady two way through in the Asian session slipping through the 1.1640 levels into the Tokyo opening and holding through the first few hours around the 1.1630 areas before rising only a touch into the grey hour, the push through the 1.1660 areas opens a deeper potential with the market open to sentimental values through to the 1.14 handle technically, an overly long formed head shoulders pattern now dominates the charts with possible light bids through the 1.1600 areas and further stops likely beyond that level the market will likely see very little support and a very nervous London until the Spanish senate vote is made public, stronger bids are not likely to really appear until the test of the 1.1500-1.1480 area. Topside offers likely through the 1.1700 level being light with stronger offers possibly into the 1.1750 areas with weak stops through the level potential for a short squeeze however, difficult to see with current situations in Spain.
- GBP: Opening around the 1.3160 areas Cable did a little bit of a catch-up with the market dropping quickly through to the 1.3130 areas into the Tokyo session and then ranging for several hours with a minor dip into the 1.3115 areas before recovering and slowly rising through to the 1.3140 levels and into the grey hours around the 1.3130. Cable for the moment seems to be dominated by events in Europe with strong bids likely into the 1.3100-20 areas and some weakness on a move through however, the 1.3050 level is likely to be just as strong if not more supportive for the market with bids likely congestive in nature through the level and into the 1.300 levels. Topside offers very light through to the 1.3200 areas with only limited offers until the market again pushes through the 1.3250 areas, from there the market is likely to find stronger offers from the 1.3270 levels into the 1.3300 areas before weak stops open up a renewed test of the 1.3400 level.
- JPY: USDJPY rose a little with the USD looking a lot more stable for the moment than GBP, EUR, the market pushed into the Tokyo session pushing through the 114.20 areas and testing into the 114.25 areas before drifting off after the Tokyo fix to trade around the 114.10 levels for the move into the grey hour. Topside offers still strong above the 114.00 areas with those offers likely to be around the 114.20-30 areas before weak stops appear and the market opens to a push through to the 1.1480-115.00 level and stronger stops with some light barriers, weak stops likely into the 115.20 areas with strong offers beginning to appear on a move towards the 115.50 levels. Downside bids light through to the 113.20-40 areas with some congestive bids before stronger bids appear on a dip through the figure area and possibly opening a stronger move through to the 112.20 areas before a reappearance of stronger bids.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7660 areas the market held around the level until the High court ruling was made, this in turn relieves the Government of its majority and some negotiations to go through to stabilize the situation before any true tests of its metal occur, the Oz dropped through to the 0.7630 level and light support holding the market for the move into the grey hour just off that low. Oz well and truly broken down through to test into the congestive 76 cent handle with a light support line in the current area and possible limited congestion on a test of the 76 cent level however, talk in the market of a head and shoulders formation now in play and the market having room to drop through to the 74 cent level over the coming days is dependent on the current government situation and any horse trading that surrounds its survival with no clear majority, Congestion possible through around the sentimental values so it the market can push through the 76 cent levels then 0.7550 area and again around 75 cent. Topside offers light for the time being as the market adjusts to the current movement with the possibility of a short squeeze if things go right for the government and weak stops/weak shorts quickly react. Topside offers likely into the 0.7700 areas with weak stops through that level leikely to see a quickly rise through to the 0.7775 areas and congestion around the level we struggled with earlier in the week.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
AUD:
Australia’s high court rules deputy PM Joyce ineligible for parliament, and government loses majority
RBA’s Debelle says inflation may be weaker than data show
USD:
FED hopeful Taylor blames economic policy for lower US growth
House passes budget blueprint, clearing path for tax overhaul
Yellen out of Fed chair race
EUR:
Bundesbank Dombret says Hard Brexit is economically manageable
The EU is secretly preparing for Britain to leave with a deal despite Tusk saying not the case earlier this month
ECB Halves the QE pace, but signals a slow exit
Spanish senate meet to discuss a government proposal to implement article 155
Article 155 would see Catalan regional president Puigdemont and administration removed from office
Draghi says ECB must be patient, persistent
CNY:
China’s Sept industrial profits surge most in nearly six years
JPY:
Japan inflation ticks up in September but way off BoJ target
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â National CPI Core Y/Y Sep A 0.70% | C 0.70% | P 0.70%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Oct A 0.60% | C 0.50% | P 0.50%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Q/Q Q3 A 0.2% | C 0.40% | P 0.50%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Y/Y Q3 A 1.60% | P 1.70%
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Import Price Index M/M Sep C 0.50% | P 0.00%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP (Annualized) Q3 (A) C 2.60% | P 3.10%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Price Index Q3 (A) C 1.80% | P 1.00%
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â U. of Michigan Confidence Oct (F) C 101 | P 101.1
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Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Early light gains through the grey hour for the Euro, Asia were light builders through the session pushing from below the 1.1820 levels to test towards the 1.1850 areas before moving into the London session to slowly erode the gains and hold quietly into the ECB rate decision with no surprises on the rate front the halving of QE but a continuing one for the moment saw the market drop back quickly as the end to cheap money, the Euro dropped quickly through the 1.1800 levels triggering weak stops and testing to the 1.1740 before finding some solid interest and a small bounce, however, with further reading the market saw further weakness returning added to which some decent US numbers saw the market sliding back to the 1.1720 areas and eventually pushing to the 1.1700 areas into the London close, with the NYK session in flow the market continued to slip lower testing through to the 1.1640 into the last hour and holding through to the close, the Catalan situation continues to worry the market also however, tomorrows vote is possibly the stronger news for the markets.
- GBP: Cable held its levels through the Asian session with the market testing to the 1.3280 areas and holding in a tight 1.3260 level through into the London session, the market slipped lower as the drag of the Euro pulled Cable lower at a slower rate but the market moved into the grey hour just off the high and then slipping through into the London session in a tight channel running through to the 1.3230 areas before accelerating a little dipping through to the 1.3180 level with a few weak stops triggered along the way before holding through to the NYK session around the 1.3200 areas, the move through the end of London saw the market drifting steadily lower and pushing back through to the 1.3180 levels again before dipping slowly through to the 1.3150 areas into the close.
- JPY: Dominated by cross trades the early Tokyo session saw the market dipping through to the 113.40 areas before holding through to the grey hour testing a little above the 113.50 levels and a steady recovery through to the NYK session testing to the 113.80 level and struggling around the 113.70 areas until late in the session in NYK before pushing through the 113.80 areas and pressing lightly through the 114.00 areas and a steady close around the level.
- AUD: The Oz held for much of the day around the 77 cent level with only minor fluctuations during Asia, dipping a little in early London through to the 0.7680 areas before recovering for the move into the NYK session, with US numbers in line at worst with expectations the USD strengthened through to the close with the Oz drifting steadily lower and the market pushing through to the 0.7660 areas before holding through to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (NZD) Sep A -1143M | C -900M | P -1235M | R -1179M
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Corporate Service Price Y/Y Sep A 0.90% | C 0.80% | P 0.80%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Import Price Index Q/Q Q3 A -1.60% | C -1.50% | P -0.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GfK Consumer Confidence Nov A 10.7 | C 10.8 | P 10.8
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone M3 Y/Y Sep A 5.10% | C 5.00% | P 5.00%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CBI Realized Sales Oct A -36 | C 14 | 42
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Rate Decision A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Press Conference
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Inventories Sep (P) A 0.30% | C 0.40% | P 0.90% | R 0.80%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (OCT 21) A 233K | C 236K | P 222K | R 223K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Advance Goods Trade Balance (USD) Sep A -64.1B | C -63.8B | P -62.9B | R -63.3B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Pending Home Sales M/M Sep A 0.00% | C 0.60% | P -2.60%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A 64 | C 61B | P 51B
Good Luck,
Andy
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