Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 113.684 | EURUSD 1.16094 | AUDUSD 0.76772 | NZDUSD 0.68758 | USDCAD 1.28103 | USDCHF 0.9981 | GBPUSD 1.31309 |

 

LMAX Ranges 6am London time

Highs    Lows

EURUSD               1.16188 | 1.15941

USDJPY                 113.833 | 113.526

GBPUSD               1.31501 | 1.31155

AUDUSD              0.76825 | 0.76646

USDCHF               0.99910 | 0.99702

USDCAD               1.28340 | 1.28171

NZDUSD               0.68914 | 0.68362

EURGBP               0.88466 | 0.88314

EURCHF                1.15882 | 1.15717

EURJPY                 132.092 | 1.31852

For today

• EUR: A very quiet session with early seller showing through towards the Tokyo session and the market testing back to the 1.1595 levels before recovering and holding through into the session around the 1.1600 levels, limited news saw the market rising a little through the day to the 1.1615 levels into the grey hours. Topside offers light through to the 1.1650 areas with some stronger offers in the area however, a push through the 1.1660 level will likely see stronger offers on a move back to the 1.1680-1.1700 areas and congestion from there through to the 1.1750 levels, confidence numbers during the London session and weak stops likely on a move through the congestion however, it will likely be slow going without some decent numbers, especially later in the day as the market focuses on the German CPI figures, downside bids into the 1.1600 levels light with some stronger bids on dips to the 1.1580 areas however, the downside has little technical interest until below the 1.1500 level and the market is likely to be lightly bid through to those levels, from there though the market sees some stronger bids starting to appear with weak stops on a break through the 1.1480 likely and the market opening to limited congestion around the sentimental 1.1450 areas.
• GBP: A steady slow rise in a quiet market with the Cable initially trading around the 1.3130 levels in pre Tokyo before making a steady rise through to the grey area having tested the 1.3150 levels briefly and holding on to the bulk of the gains, Topside offers light into the 1.3200 areas and some congestive offers to the 1.3220 level will likely see weak stops position behind the level and the market opening for another run to the 1.3250 levels and the stronger offers from then too the 1.3300 level where offers are likely to increase again with weak stops behind the level, Downside bids light through the 1.3100 level that is until around the 1.3080 level where the bids increase and while there may be some stops on a move through the 1.3050 areas now becomes key to any further loses for the Cable.
• JPY: A slow drift for the USD as could be seen in Euro and Cable with the market initially pushing above the 113.80 levels into the Tokyo morning only to slip slowly back to hold just above the 113.50 areas and holding the mid 113.6 area to the grey hour, Topside offers through the 113.90 level again, with the market likely to see very little until the market approaches the 114.40 area where the offers again increase and a break here likely to see weak stops triggering a minor run higher, Downside bids into the 113.20 levels with weak stops on a fresh push through the 113.20 will likely see the 112 weak and only light stops before the stronger bids appear into the 112.40 and 112.00 areas become vulnerable to a strong test.
• AUD: A narrow range for the Oz with the market initially testing the 0.7665 areas before moving a little high, Topside offers into the 0.77 cent level and rising through to weak offers around the 0.7730 areas and stronger into the 0.7775. Downside bids through the 0.7640 areas and the market struggling on congestive bids into the 76 cent levels.

Overnight News

GBP:

Dealmakers still like UK best despite Brexit Ernst & Young

EUR:

Greek government in spat with Spain’s ambassador over Catalonia

USD:

Trump tax overhaul under intensifying fire as congress readies bill

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

JPY         Retail Trade Y/Y Sep A 2.20% | C 2.30% | P 1.70% | R 1.80%

07:00     EUR        German Retail Sales M/M Sep C 0.50% | P -0.40%

08:00     CHF        KOF Leading Indicator Oct C 106.5 | P 105.8

09:30     GBP       Mortgage Approvals Sep C 66.0K | P 66.6K

09:30     GBP       M4 Money Supply M/M Sep C 0.70% | P 0.90%

10:00     EUR        Eurozone Economic Confidence Oct C 113.3 | P 113

10:00     EUR        Eurozone Business Climate Indicator Oct C 1.4 | P 1.34

10:00     EUR        Eurozone Industrial Confidence Oct C 7.1 | P 6.6

10:00     EUR        Eurozone Services Confidence Oct C 15 | P 15.3

10:00     EUR        Eurozone Consumer Confidence Oct (F) C -1 | P -1

12:30     USD       Personal Income Sep C 0.40% | P 0.20%

12:30     USD       Personal Spending Sep C 0.90% | P 0.10%

12:30     USD       PCE Deflator M/M Sep C 0.40% | P 0.20%

12:30     USD       PCE Deflator Y/Y Sep C 1.60% | P 1.40%

12:30     USD       PCE Core M/M Sep C 0.10% | P 0.10%

12:30     USD       PCE Core Y/Y Sep C 1.30% | P 1.30%

13:00     EUR        German CPI M/M Oct (P) C 0.10% | P 0.10%

13:00     EUR        German CPI Y/Y Oct (P) C 1.70% | P 1.80%

21:45     NZD       Building Permits M/M Sep P 10.20%

23:30     JPY         Unemployment Rate Sep C 2.80% | P 2.80%

23:30     JPY         Household Spending Y/Y Sep C 0.70% | P 0.60%

23:50     JPY         Industrial Production M/M Sep (P) C -1.60% | P 2.00%

Weekend News

AUD:

Queensland calls snap election after the Labour party lost its legislative majority

PM Turnbull names Foreign Minister Julie Bishop as acting PM

USD:

Special counsel Mueller to serve first indictment in Russia probe today.

Close scrutiny of former National security adviser Michael Flynn and campaign chairman Paul Manafort

Trump’s approval rating falls to lowest level since taking office BBG

EUR:

Hundreds of thousands march for unified Spain, poll shows depth of division Reuters

Harry Hindsight

• EUR: Light decline through the Asian session saw the Euro dip on the move into the Tokyo session from the opening around the 1.1655 level to hold around the 1.1630 areas and moving through into the grey hours regaining some of the early loses, early Europeans sold through the lows into the London opening with concerns surrounding the Catalan succession, the market held the 1.1620 areas on the first move but eventually dropped through the level to test gradually through the 1.1600 areas and testing into the NYK session to the 1.1580 areas with the market holding for a short period below the 1.1580 level before beginning a steady rise once the London session left the arena to finish the day above the 1.1600 levels.
• GBP: Cable was under pressure from the opening around the 1.3160 areas with the move into the Tokyo session seeing the market drop back to trade the 1.3120-30 areas before eventually attempting a recovery of sorts and testing the 1.3140 level and into the grey hour, The move through into the London session saw the market dropping again and slipping through the 1.3100 level with little effort before finding support as it test the 1.3070 areas and recovering back to the figure, the market ranged through into the NYK session and lifting higher again after the poor Michigan number and squeezing through to the 1.3120 level and a slow rise through to the close testing into the 1.3130’s
• JPY: Choppy day overall but limited in range, rising steadily through the Asian session testing through to the 114.25 areas before holding in a tight range around the 114.10-20 areas before heading into the London session to push slightly beyond the 114.30 areas, the market dropped quickly back to the 114.00 areas into mid-morning London session before starting a steady rise again triggering some weak stops on the move back to the 114.30 levels spiking to the 114.45 areas before dropping back to the 114.00 levels again in a quick move, limited hold in the 114.00 areas however, the move below saw weak stops and the market testing through to the 113.75 levels before returning to the figure and then a steady drift into the close to make fresh lows.
• AUD: A quiet move into the Tokyo session holding around the 0.7660 levels, the release of weaker CPI numbers and the Oz dropping back to the 0.7630 areas as the market perceived the chance of a rate rise diminishing, a little choppy for a short period saw the market set fresh lows into the 0.7620’s before holding around the 0.7640 through the grey hour and into the NYK session before testing the lows again and rising quickly as the market squeezed higher to the 0.7670 areas and quietly ranging around the level before lifting slowly to the close.

Yesterday’s premiership results

JPY         National CPI Core Y/Y Sep A 0.70% | C 0.70% | P 0.70%

JPY         Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Oct A 0.60% | C 0.50% | P 0.50%

AUD       PPI Q/Q Q3 A 0.20% | C 0.40% | P 0.50%

AUD       PPI Y/Y Q3 A 1.60% | P 1.70%

EUR        German Import Price Index M/M Sep A 0.90% | C 0.50% | P 0.00%

USD       GDP (Annualized) Q3 (A) A 3.00% | C 2.60% | P 3.10%

USD       GDP Price Index Q3 (A) A 2.20% | C 1.80% | P 1.00%

USD       U. of Michigan Confidence Oct (F) A 100.7 | C 101 | P 101.1

Stay lucky

Andy

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