Untitled

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 113.182 | EURUSD 1.16514 | AUDUSD 0.7688 | NZDUSD 0.68655 | USDCAD 1.28328 | USDCHF 0.99435 | GBPUSD 1.32077 |

LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT

                                High | Low

EURUSD               1.16531 | 1.16252

USDJPY                 113.283 | 112.983

GBPUSD               1.32149 | 1.31915

USDCHF               0.99657 | 0.99475

AUDUSD              0.76991 | 0.76714

USDCAD               1.28446 | 1.28251

NZDUSD               0.68815 | 0.68377

EURCHF                1.15976 | 1.15846

EURGBP               0.88235 | 0.88049

EURJPY                 131.816 | 131.515

For today

• EUR: Early sellers as the market continued to react to the Spanish/Catalonia however, as the early traders moved in the market lifted off the 1.1625 areas to test back to the opening levels without testing the early highs above 1.1650, possibly light offers through the 1.1660 areas with limited stops beyond and stronger offers likely through the 1.1700 levels with congestion likely through to the 1.1750 areas a push beyond the 1.1760 areas will likely see weak stops appearing and the market possibly seeing only light offers into the 1.1800 level more congestive than anything else. Downside bids through the 1.1600 levels likely to increase on a move through towards the 1.1580-60 areas with sentimental bids only below the level until the market approaches the 1.1520 areas where bids are likely to be a little stronger and deeper through to the 1.1480 area.
• GBP: Slow day for the Cable with the market drifting off the opening 1.3205 areas into the Tokyo session to test the 1.3190 level before starting a slow rise through to the opening levels again before moving into the grey hour, Topside offers through the 1.3220 levels likely to be light with stronger on a push through to the 1.3250 areas and stronger congestion then likely to continue to the 1.3300 level where the market is possibly strongest before opening up to stops on a move through the 1.3330 areas. Downside bids light back through the 1.3200 areas with weak stops on a move through the level however, congestive into the 1.3150 areas with stronger bids likely to appear on a push through the 1.3100 area and continue through to the 1.3050 areas which is likely to be the key level to whether the market returns to the 1.29 handle.
• JPY: Very limited day for the USDJPY with the market trading in the 113.00-20 areas for the most part with early sellers touching through the figure level only to snap back once the Tokyo session moved in fully the market then regained the opening level and a brief spike made the highs but was unable to push beyond the 113.30 level and drifted into the grey hour holding around the 113.10 areas, bids to the downside through the 113.00 level and while there may be some weak stops on the dip through the 112.80 level congestion over the past month through to the 112.50 areas is likely to soak up those orders and leave the market supported through to the 112.20-00 areas if it can break, Topside offers through the 113.80-114.20 area are likely to be strong again with the short term sellers willing to play the range again if it can push towards the level, weak stops likely through there however, the stronger offers probably don’t really appear until the market moves to the 114.50 areas and the highs from last week.
• AUD: Rising in the Sydney period the market pushed to its highs on the run to the Tokyo session testing towards the 77 cent level and falling just short of the level, the move through the Tokyo session saw the Oz under pressure a little with no real good news through the session and dropped back into the low 0.7670 to trade around the 0.7675 areas for the bulk of the session, the market started to rally a little into the end of the Asian session pushing through to the opening levels, Topside offers light through the 77 cent areas with limited congestion around the 0.7740, stronger offers on a test back towards that 0.7775 areas with the market likely to see congestion continuing with weak stops behind the 78 cent levels, downside bids into the 0.7650 level and through to the 0.7630 with small stops below however, these are likely to be soaked up by further bids congestion through to the 76 cent levels and stronger bids,

Overnight News                                                                  

NZD:

NZ FinMin not especially concerned by Kiwi’s drop

Robertson says RBNZ reform will include outside experts Minutes

NZ building approvals fall on houses, retirement Units

NZ Sep home building approvals fall 2.3% MoM

NZ Oct Business activity outlook index at 22.2

NZ Oct Business confidence index at -10.1

NZ ANZ Oct firms own activity outlook 22.2% vs. Sep 29.6%

AUD:

Yields drop as Iron ore hits four month low Inside Australia

Australia’s Sep Private new home sales fall 6.1% MoM

Senate President Stephen Parry believes he is still a British Citizen and may need to resign

Laws passed since the last election could come under scrutiny having been passed with MP’s forced out because of dual citizenship

JPY:

Japan fund managers increase overall bond holding in Oct to 57.5% from 57.3% in Sep – RTRS

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

JPY         BoJ Policy Balance Rate A -010% | C -0.10% | P -0.10%

NZD       Building Permits M/M Sep A -2.30% | P 10.20% | R 5.90%

JPY         Unemployment Rate Sep A 2.80% | C 2.80% | P 2.80%

JPY         Household Spending Y/Y Sep A -0.30% | C 0.70% | P 0.60%

JPY         Industrial Production M/M Sep (P) A -1.10% | C -1.60% | P 2.00%

GBP       GfK Consumer Confidence Oct A -10 | C -10 | P -9

CNY        Manufacturing PMI Oct A 51.6 | C 52.1 | P 52.4

CNY        Non-manufacturing PMI Oct A 54.3 | C 54.3 | P 55.4

JPY         Housing Starts Y/Y Sep A -2.90% | C -3.20% | P -2.00%

EUR        French GDP Q/Q Q3 (A) A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P 0.50% | R 0.60%

EUR        French GDP Y/Y Q3 (A) A 2.20% | C 2.10% | P 1.80%

10:00     EUR        Eurozone Unemployment Rate Sep C 9.00% | P 9.10%

10:00     EUR        Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q3 (A) C 0.50% | P 0.60%

10:00     EUR        Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Oct C 1.50% | P 1.50%

10:00     EUR        Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Oct (A) C 1.10% | P 1.10%

12:30     CAD       GDP M/M Aug C 0.10% | P 0.00%

12:30     CAD       Industrial Product Price M/M Sep C 0.50% | P 0.30%

12:30     CAD       Raw Materials Price Index M/M Sep C 0.40% | P 1.00%

12:30     USD       Employment Cost Index Q3 C 0.70% | P 0.50%

13:00     USD       S&P/CS Composite-20 Y/Y Aug C 5.90% | P 5.80%

13:45     USD       Chicago PMI Oct C 60 | P 65.2

14:00     USD       Consumer Confidence Oct C 121 | P 119.8

 

Harry Hindsight

• EUR: A reasonable quiet day with the Euro dipping from the opening to set the lows just below the 1.1615 areas through into the grey hour, London bought off the early sellers taking it quickly through to the 1.1630 and the market slowly pushed the 1.1640 level and held into the opening in NYK where the Euro started to move back to the 1.1600 areas again with weak stops cleared on the way down however, the market again held the 1.1600 area and pushed through to the highs again seeing a little drift before pushing higher again this time pushing through the 1.1650 levels before drifting to the close just off the highs.
• GBP: Cable was more of a steady climber through the day opening around the 1.3130 areas the market pushed through the Asian session testing the 1.3150 level before moving into the London session slipping a little before climbing quickly through to the 1.3170 levels and holding through to the NYK session, NYK joined the early London model and took the market to the 1.3200 levels and the market held the area for a period before running a second time to test through the 1.3210 areas and remained for the most part around the level to the close.
• JPY: USDJPY made early highs into the Tokyo session topping just beyond the 113.80 levels however, with arrests or arrest to be made in the US and several media talks likely to happen the USD came under limited pressure through the day, with the market dipping into midsession Tokyo around the 113.55 areas before pushing back to the opening level into the London opening, London were steady sellers unable to push beyond the previous low and only once NYK came in did the market drop lower with some limited stops taking the market through the 113.20 level eventually pushing through to the 113.00 areas and holding the 113.10 level through to the close.
• AUD: Limited range but a steady push higher over the course of the day, opening around 0.7675 areas dipping a little and then rising through in the Tokyo session to test above the 0.7680 level only to return to the 0.7665 area into the London opening, the market saw early buyers extending to the 0.7685 areas however, the move through into the NYK session again saw the lows stretched to the 0.7655 area before solid buying came in and the market pushed to its highs through NYK settling back only slightly from the 0.7690 level in the close.

Yesterday’s premiership results

JPY         Retail Trade Y/Y Sep A 2.20% | C 2.30% | P 1.70% | R 1.80%

EUR        German Retail Sales M/M Sep A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P -0.40% | R -0.20%

CHF        KOF Leading Indicator Oct A 109.1 | C 106.5 | P 105.8

GBP       Mortgage Approvals Sep A 66.2K | C 66.0K | P 66.6K | R 67.2K

GBP       M4 Money Supply M/M Sep A -0.20% | C 0.70% | P 0.90% | R 1.10%

EUR        Eurozone Economic Confidence Oct A 114 | C 113.3 | P 113 | R 113.1

EUR        Eurozone Business Climate Indicator Oct A 1.44 | C 1.4 | P 1.34

EUR        Eurozone Industrial Confidence Oct A 7.9 | C 7.1 | P 6.6 | R 6.7

EUR        Eurozone Services Confidence Oct A 16.2 | C 15 | P 15.3 | R 15.4

EUR        Eurozone Consumer Confidence Oct (F) A -1 | C -1 | P -1

USD       Personal Income Sep A 0.40% | C 0.40% | P 0.20%

USD       Personal Spending Sep A 1.00% | C 0.90% | P 0.10%

USD       PCE Deflator M/M Sep A 0.40% | C 0.40% | P 0.20%

USD       PCE Deflator Y/Y Sep A 1.60% | C 1.60% | P 1.40%

USD       PCE Core M/M Sep A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%

USD       PCE Core Y/Y Sep A 1.30% | C 1.30% | R 1.30%

EUR        German CPI M/M Oct (P) A 0.00% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%

EUR        German CPI Y/Y Oct (P) A 1.60% | C 1.70% | P 1.80%

Good Luck,

Andy

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