Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 113.702 | EURUSD 1.16095 | AUDUSD 0.76915 | NZDUSD 0.69224 | USDCAD 1.27047 | USDCHF 0.99749 | GBPUSD 1.3171 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.16155 | 1.16018
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 114.011 | 1.13696
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31783 | 1.31630
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99900 | 0.99721
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.77008 | 0.7677
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.27215 | 1.27053
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.69540 | 0.69289
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.15926 | 1.15762
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88196 | 0.8810
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 132.338 | 132.045
For today
- EUR: A quiet session with the market in Euro’s holding quietly through to the grey hours, initially dipping from the opening around the 1.1615 level through into the Tokyo session to test towards the 1.1600 areas before recovering and attempting the highs again, before drifting a little into the grey hours, light congestive offers through the 1.1650 areas with limited stops just beyond the weak offers are likely to continue through the 1.1700 areas and only increase as the market moves towards the 1.1750 areas with weak stops likely through the 1.1760 level opening the topside to further gains. Downside bids into the current levels and through to the 1.1580 areas, weak stops in the area through that level and the market opening for a deeper move with limited bids through to the 1.1500-1.1480.
- GBP: Cable was no different to the Euro for the most part with a very limited range testing towards the 1.3180 areas before slipping back to the 1.1365 level having opened around the 1.3170 areas, Topside weak offers through the 1.3200 areas with some limited offers continuing through the 1.3220 levels, with stops likely through the level and further congestive offers into the 1.3250 areas and the market opening up for a renewed push to the 1.3300 areas and stronger offers. Downside bids light through to the 1.3100 levels with some bids likely to be building in the area however, the stronger bidding area is likely to still be in the 1.3050 areas with strong stops likely on a move through the area and a return to the 1.2900 areas.
- JPY: Opening around the 113.70 areas the market moved a little higher into the Tokyo session holding the 113.80 areas before drifting a little, deeper into the Tokyo session saw the market slowly pushing through the 113.90 areas and a steady rise back to the 114.00 areas before holding quietly into the grey hours. Topside for the moment remains fairly weak until the 114.70-115.00 areas and possible weak stops on a move through the area, a move through will likely see the 115.50 tested quickly with the market possibly strongly offered into with a push through. Downside bids light through to the 113.50 level with some minor bids through to the 113.25 areas with stronger bids likely into the 113.00 areas before stops start to appear on a dip through the 113
- AUD: Overall a quiet range for the Oz drifting into the Tokyo session before moving a little higher through to the 0.7695 areas before again drifting through the opening 0.7690 area and the market holding for the most part around the 0.7680 level, the RBA announcement saw a spike through the 77 cent areas before dropping back again and holding into the grey hour. Topside offers into the 77 cent areas are likely to be light with possibly with those offers possibly extending a short distance through the level and the market then seeing some congestion into the 0.7040-60 areas and stronger beyond this area, Downsdie bids litgh through to the 76 cent level with bids likely from the weakened 0.7620 areas onwards. Topside offers into the 0.7710 levels before weak stops appear in the market and then limited congestions through the 0.7750 areas.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
NZD:
FinMin Roberson will release the terms of reference for a review of the Reserve Bank act
Will also resign the current policy targets agreement with RBNZ acting Gov. Grant Spencer
FinMin says in some circumstances, RBNZ changes could lead to lower rates than otherwise
NZ’s Robertson: Phase 1 to focus on employment, committee
USD:
Dudley: US close to full employment inflation a puzzle
Dudley: Bank stress tests are going to remain very stressful
Dudley to retire mid 2018 NYK FED says
JPY:
Abe: Supports US policy of all options on Table on N. Korea
AUD:
RSB says forecast for Australian economy largely unchanged
RBA: Judged steady policy consistent with growth, inflation targets
RBA: Expects economy to grow at an annual 3% over the next few years
RBA: Higher AUD is restraining price pressures
RBA: Increased infrastructure investment support the economy
RBA: Rising AUD would slow economy
RBA: Growth in wages, high household debt likely to constrain spending
RBA: Signs conditions are easing in Sydney house prices
RBA: Unemployment expected to decline gradually
RBA: Global economy continuing to improve
RBA: Inflation remains low, likely to stay so for some time
RBA: Labour market has continued to strengthen
RBA: Australia’s terms of trade expected to decline over the period ahead
RBA: Forecast remains for inflation to pick up gradually
GBP:
Retail sales weaken as cash strapped consumers hold back (nothing new given Christmas is coming)
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Labour Cash Earnings Y/Y Sep A 0.90% | C 0.50% | P 0.90% | R 0.70%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Retail Sales Monitor Y/Y Oct A -1.00% | C 0.90% | P 1.90%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBA Rate Decision A 1.50% | C 1.50% | P 1.50%
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Industrial Production M/M Sep C -0.80% | P 2.60%
08:00Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF) Oct P 724B
09:10Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Retail PMI Oct P 52.3
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Sep C 0.60% | P -0.50%
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Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A very quiet session for the Euro, opening around the 1.1605 levels with the market dipping a little into the Tokyo session pushing through the 1.1600 areas before returning through the level to test to the highs of the day and testing close to the 1.1625 level, the move through to the grey hours saw the market drifting to the opening levels and dipping just a little as the Italian Services PMI the market again tested through the 1.1600, as successive numbers came out so the market dipped a little further and the move into the NYK session saw the market dropping back to the 1.1585 level and holding quietly through the opening with the market extending to the 1.1580 level before bouncing into the London close to return to the opening levels and a quiet close around the opening level.
- GBP: Cable opened in line with Friday’s close, the move through Asia was limited with the market holding around the 1.3075 areas only to move into the London session gradually pushing through the 1.3100 areas as news of May’s deal, while still not confirmed the market is speculating of £53B as a divorce settlement from Europe, the market then held through the opening in NYK until the close of the London session with the range just beyond the 1.3100-20 areas and steadily moving higher through the closing period in London to test the 1.3150 level and a slow push through to the close above the 1.3170 areas with the belief that some of the uncertainty was cleared.
- JPY: USDJPY opened around the 114.10 levels and the move into the Tokyo session test quickly through the 114.60 levels as the BoJ minutes dismissed to some extent any lessening of Abenomics testing through the 114.70 levels to make the highs the market drifted from those highs and then dropped quickly through the 114.50 areas as weak stops to hold through to the London session to trade the 114.20-40 areas, early London forced the market back to the opening levels and the market traded around the 114.10 areas until the end of London session saw the lows extended with the USDJPY dropping quickly through to the 113.80 areas and a slow drift through to the close on its lows.
- AUD: The Oz slipped a little lower as the USD found some early strength into the Tokyo session to test the 0.7640 areas before starting a slow recovery back through the opening 0.7650 level and making the Asian high around 0.7660 in a quiet session for the Oz, the move into the London session saw the market holding the opening level and a slow push through to the NYK session trading to the 0.7665 level, the move through the London close once London had departed the market started a slow rise through to the close testing through to the 0.7690 levels.
Yesterday’s premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â BOJ Minutes Sep Meeting
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â TD Securities Inflation M/M Oct A 0.30% | P 0.30%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBNZ 2-Year Inflation Expectation Q4 A 2.00% | P 2.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Factory Orders M/M Sep A 1.00% | C -1.10% | P 3.60% | R 4.10%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Oct A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.20%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Oct A 0.70% | C 0.70% | P 0.70%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Italy Services PMI Oct A 52.1 | C 53 | P 53.2
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Services PMI Oct (F) A 57.3 | C 57.4 | P 57.4
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Services PMI Oct (F) A 54.7 | C 55.2 | P 55.2
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services PMI Oct (F) A 55 | C 54.9 | P 54.9
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Nov A 34 | C 31 | P 29.7
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PPI M/M Sep A 0.60% | C 0.40% | P 0.30%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Ivey PMI Oct A 63.8 | C 60.2 | P 59.6
Good Luck,
Andy
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