Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 113.872 | EURUSD 1.15947 | AUDUSD 0.76771 | NZDUSD 0.69173 | USDCAD 1.27273 | USDCHF 1.00016 | GBPUSD 1.3116 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.16049 | 1.15857
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 114.072 | 113.443
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31390 | 1.30994
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00059 | 0.9981
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.76897 | 0.76626
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.27410 | 1.27212
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.69724 | 0.6945
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.15973 | 1.15814
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88459 | 0.88304
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 132.263 | 131.638
For today
- EUR: Early trading moved quietly into the Tokyo session holding the opening 1.1595 areas before dipping to its lows just above the 1.1585 area, the market moved smartly off the lows trading back towards the 1.1600 areas and then struggled with the level for a few hours before popping through late in the session to move into the grey hours above the figure to test the 1.1605 areas. Light offers through the 1.1660 areas with very few stops until beyond the 1.1700 areas with stronger offers leading up to that level, weak stops open the 1.1750 areas with strong congestion through that area and offers then building 1.1780-1.1800 levels, with German trade balance and ECB bulletin to come, Downside bids into the 1.1550 are likely to be reasonably strong with some reasonable bids into the 1.1500-1.1480 levels and stronger stops likely through the level opening up a deep move with better bids into the 1.1400 areas.
- GBP: Cable slipped a little through from the opening before rising quickly on the timetable reported in the FT of Brexit compensation or punishment whichever view you take, the cable pushed from the 1.3105 areas to push back through the opening levels and test briefly above the 1.3130 level before holding for a couple of hours, the next push saw the market extend the high into the grey hour to test towards the 1.3140 level. Cable has slipped into a tight medium term range with downside bids around the 1.3100 areas with stronger bids continuing through the level into the 1.3050 areas which is likely to be a key level with possible strong stops down through the level into the limited congestion around the 1.3000 areas, topside offers light through the 1.3200 level with congestion on any move beyond the level with some weak stops through the 1.3220 areas with stronger offers then appearing on any test above the 1.3250 level.
- JPY: USDJPY saw early buying from the lower opening around the 113.85 areas and pushing through into the Tokyo session testing the 114.05 areas and holding through to the stronger ECO watchers number seemingly setting the USDJPY quickly lower and the USDJPY testing quickly through the 113.50 areas before finding some bids appearing to hold the market and a small bounce to the 113.65 areas into the grey hours. Topside sees congestion through the 114.00 levels with weak stops on a push through the 114.30 areas and possible weak stops on a move through the 114.60 and an opening to the 115.00 areas again if it can gain any momentum before grinding through the 114.80 areas. Downside bids into the 113.40 areas and a keenness for buying through to the 113.00 levels with possible weak stops appearing quickly on a move through the level.
- AUD: The Oz struggled with the NZD into the Tokyo session with the market dropping off from the 0.7680 areas to test to the 0.7665 areas before recovering to the opening level, the push through the opening levels saw the market test quickly higher to set the high close to the 0.7690 level before sliding lower through to the session into the grey hours back to the opening levels. As with previous days, weeks and months the Oz is caught in the narrow 0.7700-0.7650 areas for the most part with downside bids likely to appear through to the 0.7640-30 areas and while there is a possibility of weak stops they if present would be limited and the bids from 0.7620-0.7600 would likely soak up the stops, a push through the 76 cent areas runs into further congestion with the 75 cent level being the key to a new move lower and too far away one thinks, topside offers into the 77 cent areas are reasonably strong with weak stops on a move through the level likely to see some weak stops however, the market would really need to push on through the 0.7730 areas to find stronger stops appearing.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
NZD:
RBNZ sees average OCR in 1q 2019 at 1.8% then 1.9% for proceeding 2019 qtrs
RBNZ now forecasts rates rising in 2Q 2019 vs. 3Q
RBNZ falling NZD if sustained will lift tradables inflation
RBNZ numerous uncertainties remain, policy may need to adjust
RBNZ Sees inflation slowing to low of 1.5% in 2018
RBNZ Cuts 4Q 2017 growth forecast to 0.9% from 1%
RBNZ CPI projected to remain near midpoint of target range
RBNZ Asst. Gov. McDermott says would be good if NZD fell a little bit further
McDermott: inflation has gone up because of temporary factors, we always look through those
RBNZ Gov. Grant Spencer says currency is in the vicinity of fair value
USD:
Suburbs rebel against Trump, threatening republicans in congress – NYT
Speaker Ryan opens door to delayed corporate tax cut RTRS
Trump urges China, and Russia to act fast on N. Korea
US Carriers in rare Pacific operation amid N. Korea tensions
EUR/GBP:
Brexit is getting dramatic, say EU
EU gives UK 2 or 3 weeks to make Brexit bill offer FT
CNY:
China’s strong factory gate inflation shows economic momentum still robust
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
20:00Â Â Â Â NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBNZ Rate Decision A 1.75% | C 1.75% | P 1.75%
23:50Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â BOJ Summary of Opinions Oct Meeting
23:50Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Machine Orders M/M Sep A -8.10% | C -2.00% | P 3.40%
23:50Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Current Account (JPY) Sep A 1.84T | C 2.05T | P 2.27T
0:01Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RICS House Price Balance Oct A 1.00% | C 4.00% | P 6.00%
0:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Home Loans M/M Sep A -2.30% | C 2.00% | P 1.00% | R 1.50%
1:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Oct A 1.90% | C 1.70% | P 1.60%
1:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â PPI Y/Y Oct A 6.90% | C 6.60% | P 6.90%
5:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Eco Watchers Survey Current Oct A 52.2 | C 50.5 | P 51.3
06:45Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Oct C 3.10% | P 3.10%
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Trade Balance Sep C 23.1B | P 21.6B
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Economic Bulletin
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â EU Economic Forecasts
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Housing Price Index M/M Sep C 0.20% | P 0.10%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (NOV 04) C 231K | P 229K
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Inventories M/M Sep (F) C 0.30% | P 0.30%
15:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P 65B
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Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Opening around the 1.1585 areas the market traded through to the 1.1605 areas in early Tokyo trading however, while the highs and lows were extended a little the market remained around the 1.1595 areas throughout the day, with no data and even less news the market struggled for direction through the day, well that is apart from sideways, the move into the London session saw the market extend the highs through the 1.1610 areas and the move towards the close in London saw the lows set just beyond the 1.1580 areas with the market drifting to a close around the 1.1595 areas just above the opening.
- GBP: A quiet Asian session saw the market move quietly through to the grey hours holding around the 1.3170 areas with the market unable to push through the 1.3180 areas, the move into the grey hour saw the market drift off to test the 1.3150 areas before the early London session stepped in to hold the market through to the official opening before dipping again testing through to the 1.3130 areas and again pausing, with politics again taking the front page news and so what movement there was, was sporadic at best dipping lower in steps through to the NYK session to test the lows through the 1.3090 areas before starting a slow recovery through to the close around the 1.3120 areas.
- JPY: USDJPY dropped back as soon as Tokyo opened with the market dropping from the opening highs around the 114.00 areas to test the 113.65 area before finding some bids, and holding around the 113.80 level through into the grey hours, early London saw a limited rise but generally stayed steading through to early morning and dropping off through into the NYK session to test the 113.40 areas, from that point it was a long day with the market gradually rising through to the 113.90 areas for the close.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7640 areas with a weak opening before steadily rising through into the Tokyo session testing above the 0.7655 levels and holding around that level through to the CNY numbers, some weakness in the numbers saw the Oz dip back to the 0.7645 level on a couple of occasions before starting a steady climb in the grey hour slowly testing through to the London session pushing through the 0.7665 area. The market continued a slow rise through to the 0.7685 area before ranging around the 0.7675 level through to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (USD) Oct A 38.2B | C 39.5B | P 28.5B
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CNY) Oct A 254B | C 275B | P 193B
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Leading Index Sep (P) A 106.6 | C 106.6 | P 107.2
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Oct A 223K | C 220K | P 217K | R 219K
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M Sep A 3.80% | C 0.70% | P -5.50% | R -5.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A 2.2M | C -2.5M | P -2.4M
Good Luck,
Andy
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