Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 113.466 | EURUSD 1.16415 | AUDUSD 0.7680 | NZDUSD 0.69598 | USDCAD 1.26828 | USDCHF 0.9940 | GBPUSD 1.31462 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.16547 | 1.16381
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 113.544 | 113.266
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31518 | 1.31389
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99528 | 0.99342
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.76902 | 0.76647
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.26967 | 1.26667
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.69575 | 0.6921
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.15857 | 1.15665
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88657 | 0.88526
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 132.218 | 131.956
For today
- EUR: A very quiet session with the market moving off the opening 1.1640 areas and pushing weakly towards the 1.1655 areas before drifting back into the 1.1640’s through to the grey hour, Topside offers beginning to increase into the 1.1660 levels the longer the market struggles with a move back higher a push through the level will likely see weak stops appearing and the market then running to the 1.1680-1.1700 areas and some limited offers and light congestion through to the 1.1750 area, downside bids into the 1.1550-40 levels with a push through that level likely to see stronger stops appearing and possibly only sentimental bids around the 1.1500 areas and the market opening to a deeper move.
- GBP: As with the rest of the market the move through the Asian session saw the Cable pinned in a tight 1.3140-50 range with the market unable to move any further and favouring the downside, Topside offer light into the 1.3150 areas with stronger offers likely to appear on a move towards the 1.3200 levels weak stops on a push through the 1.3220 areas are likely and the market again starts to run into congestive offers through the 1.3250 areas and continuing through to the 1.3300 level and strong offers into that area. Downside bids light into the 1.3100 level with a move back through the level likely to see stronger bids moving in below the 1.3080 areas and continuing into the main supportive areas around the 1.3050 areas, possible stops through the level with weaker bids likely into the 1.3000 areas with stops likely to be hanging around just below and the downside becoming vulnerable to a strong move.
- JPY: USDJPY had a larger range than most with the market opening just short of the 113.50 area and drifting through into the Tokyo session to test the 113.25 level before slowly moving back to test through the 113.50 levels lightly the range narrowed a little from there before slowly moving off the 113.30 levels to hold into the grey hour around the opening level. USDJPY downside sees weak bids until the 113.00 levels some support in the area is likely to then become congestive through the level and the market struggling through to the 112.50 level where possibly stronger stops appear and the downside opening to the 112.00-111.80 level with larger weakness then through to the 110 handle. Topside offers through the 114.00 level more congestive with some weak stops likely however, stronger stops are likely through the 114.60 areas if the market has momentum to push the level, a break will see the market likely to have a quick push through to the 115.00 areas and that momentum dependent on whether the market breaks.
- AUD: RBA monetary policy statement caused some gyration with the market holding around the 0.7680 areas with the market testing slightly higher before dipping back to the 0.7665 and back to the highs again on the release, the market then settled down like the rest in a tighter range through to the grey hour, two weeks or so the market has been stuck in the 76-77 cent range with offers to the Topside into the 0.7680-0.7700 area, a push through will likely see congestive offers continuing through the 0.7720 areas with some possible weak stops appearing above the 0.7730 areas and the market opening to the 0.7775 resistance area with offers likely piled up into the 78 cent level, downside bids into the 0.7640 areas and possibly congestive bids continuing slightly through however, a strong test of the 0.7620 areas could see weak stops appearing and the market testing through to the congestive bids on the 75 cent handle.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
USD:
Full US house to attempt to pass tax bill as early as next week RTRS
SAR:
Saudis urge citizens to leave Lebanon as Iran tension rises
Saudi Billionaires said to move funds to escape asset freeze
EUR:
ECB warns complacency is the enemy as Euro region recovers
Brexit talks thrown into chaos after Ireland makes fresh border demands UKT
CHF:
SNB’s Jordan ready to intervene in FX markets if necessary
NZD:
FinMin Robertson says not always clear to him that RBNZ has given enough consideration to employment
NZ Oct retail card spending rises less than forecast
Robertson: Govt targets 4% jobless rate in first term
Robertson: RBNZ 2% inflation focus could be up for discussion
GBP:
Theresa May warns Tory rebels that she will not tolerate any attempts to undermine Brexit
AUD:
RBA Trims inflation forecasts, GDP outlook little changed.
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Oct A 4.10% | C 4.10% | P 4.10% | R 4.00%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBA Monetary Policy Statement
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tertiary Industry Index M/M Sep A -0.20% | C -0.10% | P -0.20%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Sep C 0.30% | P 0.20%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y Sep C 1.90% | P 1.60%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production M/M Sep C 0.30% | P 0.40%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production Y/Y Sep C 2.40% | P 2.80%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction Output M/M Sep C -0.90% | P 0.60%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Sep C -12.9B | P -14.2B
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â U. of Mich. Sentiment Nov (P) C 100.6 | P 100.7
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Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A very limited day with most of the noise in the UK and political wrangles, Euro drifted from the opening testing to the lows around the 1.1585 area and then recovering in Mid Tokyo to the 1.1600 areas and holding through to the grey hours, the move into the London session saw the market rising slowly through to the EU economic forecast and a run to the 1.1640 level, the run into the NYK session saw the gains lost and a dip back to the 1.1600 areas before bouncing on a stronger initial jobless claim this time moving through to the 1.1650 areas before finding some limited resistance to the close drifting back to the 1.1640 areas.
- GBP: Trading was fairly choppy however, contained in a reasonable range through the day, opening around the 1.3115 areas the market drifted a little through the Tokyo session before rising strongly once the CNY numbers were released rising to the 1.3130 level and holding through towards the grey hours, testing through to the 1.3150 area and light resistance holding the market in place, the sacking of another front bencher was sufficient to set the Cable moving lower into the London session and the market moved down through the 1.3100 triggering some weak stops along the way to test to the 1.3085 areas before bouncing with the help of the Euro and the market ranging in the 1.3100-30 through into the NYK session, NYK saw steady buying after the Jobless numbers with the market trading in a tight channel through to push above the 1.3150 level testing to the 1.3165 levels before drifting to a quiet range around the 1.3150 area.
- JPY: Rising from a weaker opening the market testing through the 114.00 areas and held in the area deep into Tokyo before dropping back on the stronger Eco survey and moving into the grey hours holding the 113.50 area, the market drifted around that level through the London session before dipping late in the NYK session to test through to the 113.10 levels and recovering only slightly through to the close.
- AUD: The OZ had a tight range through the day with the market holding for the most part around the 0.7680 areas the market opened in that area and dipped a little as AUDNZD saw limited movement after the RBNZ decision and testing initially to the 0.7665 areas before returning to the opening level and pushing to the 0.7690 level to make the high in Asia, the move inot the grey hours saw the market again marking time around the opening levels and the London session extended the high slightly but with less conviction, and then drifting back towards the lows. Weaker GBP saw the Oz again testing the highs however, the move into the NYK session saw that new high wasted as the market dropped quickly through the lows to test to the 0.7650 areas before a slow steady grind back to the opening level.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBNZ Rate Decision A 1.75% | C 1.75% | P 1.75%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â BOJ Summary of Opinions Oct Meeting
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Machine Orders M/M Sep A -8.10% | C -2.00% | P 3.40%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Current Account (JPY) Sep A 1.84T | C 2.05T | P 2.27T
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RICS House Price Balance Oct A 1.00% | C 4.00% | P 6.00%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Home Loans M/M Sep A -2.30% | C 2.00% | P 1.00% | R 1.50%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Oct A 1.90% | C 1.70% | P 1.60%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â PPI Y/Y Oct A 6.90% | C 6.60% | P 6.90%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Eco Watchers Survey Current Oct A 52.2 | C 50.5 | P 51.3
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Oct A 3.10% | C 3.10% | P 3.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Trade Balance Sep A 21.8B | C 23.1B | P 21.6B
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Economic Bulletin
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â EU Economic Forecasts
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Housing Price Index M/M Sep A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (NOV 04) A 239K | C 231K | P 229K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Inventories M/M Sep (F) A 0.30% | C 0.30% | P 0.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A 15B | C 15B | P 65B
Good Luck,
Andy
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