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All the latest business and technology views and insights on the FX industry from LMAX Exchange management and staff

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Daily FX Market Commentary

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 113.627 | EURUSD 1.16667 | AUDUSD 0.76234 | NZDUSD 0.68981 | USDCAD 1.2733 | USDCHF 0.99623 | GBPUSD 1.31161 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT

                                High | Low

EURUSD               1.16766 | 1.16617

USDJPY                 113.729 | 113.573

GBPUSD               1.31287 | 1.31106

USDCHF               0.99690 | 0.99578

AUDUSD              0.76388 | 0.76088

USDCAD               1.27457 | 1.27304

NZDUSD               0.69012 | 0.6857

EURCHF                1.16367 | 1.1621

EURGBP               0.88999 | 0.88899

EURJPY                 132.731 | 132.481

 

For today

  • EUR: A slow drift from the opening saw the market rising in the Tokyo session to push to the 1.1675 areas and then holding around the 1.1670 level in very quiet trading, light offers through to the 1.1680 levels then a little stiffer until the market pushes through the 1.1700 levels with some light stops possibly mixed with congestive offers through to the 1.1750 level and possibly stronger offers into the area, a push above the 1.1760 level will likely see lighter congestive offers into the 1.1800 areas where offers increase. Downside bids light through to the 1.1600 areas with stronger stops through to the 1.1580 areas before any chance of weak stops a push through to the 1.1550 levels will likely see stronger bids appearing, weak stops likely through the 1.1540 areas and a move through to them opens the 1.1500 level to a test with stronger bids likely into the 1.1480 levels with larger stops possibly lurking below.
  • GBP: A little rise from the opening however, the market held quietly through the Tokyo session around the 1.3120 areas. Downside bids into the 1.3050 is a key level protecting the downside below 1.3000 with the market likely to see strong stops through the level and the 1.3000 likely to be tested quickly and the market opening to a larger fall through to the 1.2950 area and light bids. topside offers likely through the 1.3180 areas and possibly a little stronger than last week, weak stops on a push above the 1.3230 areas and the market opening to the 1.3250 levels and congestive offers increasing into the 1.3300 level.
  • JPY: A little choppy but limited in range with the market opening around the 113.60 jumping through the 113.70 levels and back again through the session with the market held in that tight range for the most part. Topside offers into the 113.80-114.00 levels with congestion thereafter, a push through the 114.60 level could see weak stops appearing however, stronger offers are likely just above the level and only a strong break through the 115.20 area will see stronger stops appearing, further offers likely into the 115.50 areas with those offer then protecting the possibility of a larger gain. Downside bids light into the 113.50 level and then congestion likely to appear on a test back to the 113.00 areas with stops possibly appearing through the 112.80 areas, and into stronger congestion the deeper the market pushes into the 112 handle, weak stops likely below 112.50 could see the downside tested if the market has impetus.
  • AUD: Minor selling from the opening as another falls to the dual citizenship rule and the market testing the 0.7610 areas before starting a steady rise to make the highs close to the 0.7640 areas and ranging around the 0.7630 level into the grey hours, Downside bids into the 0.7600 areas with weak stops on a move through the level however, plenty of congestion on the 75 cent handle could see the same pattern again with the market struggling around the areas for several weeks before eventually pushing the 75 cent strong level, Topside offers into the 77 cent level with weak stops on a push through the 0.7720 areas however, the market is then likely to struggle close to the 0.7740 areas and continue to see offers appearing into the old 0.7775 trend line and stronger offers to 78 cent.

 

Overnight News                                                                  

MXN:

Mexico foreign ministry says hopes to see good conclusion to NAFTA talks but preparing for different scenarios

ForMin preparing a macroeconomic response along with central bank in case US leaves NAFTA

ForMin says working with central scenario that NAFTA talks have good outcome

AUD:

Jacqui Lambie quits the Senate after learning she a dual citizen

USD:

Donald Trump Jr, exchanged messages with WikiLeaks

Jeff Session Attorney General is considering appointing a second special counsel to investigate Hillary Clinton

US fighter jets said to have flown close to N. Korea yesterday – Herald

 

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

AUD       NAB Business Confidence Oct A 8 | P 7 | R 8

CNY        Retail Sales Y/Y Oct A 10.00% | C 10.50% | P 10.30%

CNY        Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD Y/Y Oct A 7.30% | C 7.30% | P 7.50%

CNY        Industrial Production Y/Y Oct A 6.20% | C 6.20% | P 6.60%

07:00     EUR        German GDP Q/Q Q3 (P) C 0.60% | P 0.60%

07:00     EUR        German CPI M/M Oct (F) C 0.00% | P 0.00%

07:00     EUR        German CPI Y/Y Oct (F) C 1.60% | P 1.60%

08:15     CHF        Producer & Import Prices M/M Oct P 0.50%

08:15     CHF        Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Oct P 0.80%

09:00     EUR        Italian GDP Q/Q Q3 (P) C 0.50% | P 0.40%

09:30     GBP       CPI M/M Oct C 0.20% | P 0.30%

09:30     GBP       CPI Y/Y Oct C 3.10% | P 3.00%

09:30     GBP       Core CPI Y/Y Oct C 2.80% | P 2.70%

09:30     GBP       RPI M/M Oct C 0.20% | P 0.10%

09:30     GBP       RPI Y/Y Oct C 4.10% | P 3.90%

09:30     GBP       PPI Input M/M Oct C 0.80% | P 0.40%

09:30     GBP       PPI Input Y/Y Oct C 4.70% | P 8.40%

09:30     GBP       PPI Output M/M Oct C 0.30% | P 0.20%

09:30     GBP       PPI Output Y/Y Oct C 2.90% | P 3.30%

09:30     GBP       PPI Output Core M/M Oct C 0.20% | P 0.00%

09:30     GBP       PPI Output Core Y/Y Oct               C 2.20% | P 2.50%

09:30     GBP       House Price Index Y/Y Sep C 5.20% | P 5.00%

10:00     EUR        Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Sep C -0.60% | P 1.40%

10:00     EUR        German ZEW Economic Sentiment Nov C 19.5 | P 17.6

10:00     EUR        German ZEW Current Situation Nov C 88 | P 87

10:00     EUR        Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Nov               C 29.3 | P 26.7

10:00     EUR        Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q3 (P) C 0.60% | P 0.60%

13:30     USD       PPI M/M Oct C 0.10% | P 0.40%

13:30     USD       PPI Y/Y Oct C 2.30% | P 2.60%

13:30     USD       PPI Core M/M Oct C 0.20% | P 0.40%

13:30     USD       PPI Core Y/Y Oct C 2.20% | P 2.20%

 

 

Harry Hindsight

  • EUR: Another quiet day with the market trading in a fairly narrow band through the day, opening around the 1.1660 levels the market struggled into the Tokyo session with the market dropping quickly through the 1.1650 level before holding around the level and then starting a slow drift back to the 1.1660 opening level into the grey hours, with the early sellers pushing the market to its lows testing through the 1.1640 level and holding through till mid-morning in London before starting a steady rise through to the opening levels and pushing to the 1.1675 before holding and ranging around the 1.1665 areas through to the close.
  • GBP: Independent newspaper article damaged the opening for the Cable with the market dropping from the 1.3190 areas to hold around the 1.3120 levels into Tokyo and holding around that level with minor dips below the 1.3110 areas, the move towards the grey hours saw some light buying before early Europeans also sold the market back however, this time it is more likely to be a consequence of the weaker house prices than a limited newspaper report, the market touched through to the 1.3070 areas before starting a slow rising through to the 1.3130 areas on a move into the NYK session before holding quietly around the 1.3120-30 level to the close.
  • JPY: USDJPY rose from the opening pushing through to the 113.70 areas from the opening around the 113.50 level, the market held around the 113.65 areas through to the grey hours, strong GBPJPY selling moved in and the market dropped quickly back to the 113.40 level before moving into the London session and rising from the 113.40 area, with London open the market struggled for traction and slipped slowly through to test into the 113.20’s and into the NYK session, buying from the opening saw the market rising again and although there was limited offers in the way the market eventually pushed back through the opening levels and held through to the close around the 113.60’s
  • AUD: Early trading saw the Oz slip a little lower before regaining the opening levels on a move from the 0.7645 area to test the 0.7665 level into the grey hour, the market into the London saw the money dip back to the lows and then a slow decline through the session to rest on the 0.7635 areas before dipping as the market moved to the close in London to hold around the 0.7615 area and the limited recovery towards the close was unsustainable.

 

Yesterday’s premiership results

JPY         Domestic CGPI Y/Y Oct A 3.40% | C 3.10% | P 3.00% | R 3.10%

GBP       Rightmove House Prices M/M Nov A -0.80% | P 1.10%

JPY         Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Oct (P) A 49.90% | P 45.00%

EUR        German Wholesale Price Index M/M Oct A 0.00% | C 0.40% | P 0.60%

USD       Monthly Budget Statement Oct A -63.2B | C -58.2B | P 8.0B

 

Good Luck,

Andy

 

 

 

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