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All the latest business and technology views and insights on the FX industry from LMAX Exchange management and staff

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Daily FX Market Commentary

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 112.875 | EURUSD 1.17912 | AUDUSD 0.75888 | NZDUSD 0.68741 | USDCAD 1.27641 | USDCHF 0.98844 | GBPUSD 1.31709 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT

                                High | Low

EURUSD               1.17923 | 1.17678

USDJPY                 113.113 | 112.766

GBPUSD               1.31812 | 1.31622

USDCHF               0.99004 | 0.98842

AUDUSD              0.76096 | 0.75678

USDCAD               1.27794 | 1.27601

NZDUSD               0.68775 | 0.6850

EURCHF                1.16601 | 1.16419

EURGBP               0.89540 | 0.89341

EURJPY                 133.228 | 132.802

 

For today

  • EUR: A quick dip from the opening saw the Euro dropping back to the 1.1770 levels and then moving back to the 1.1780 areas and ranging around that level top the grey hours in limited volumes. Topside offers light into and through the 1.1800 areas with limited stops on a move through the 1.1820 areas with stronger offers likely to appear again into the 1.1840-60 area with possibly continued offers into the 1.1880 level with possible stops on a move through the 1.1900 level with congestion likely to be strong into that area. Downside bids likely to be light through the 1.1740 level and the market seeing only limited congestion on a move back to the 1.1700 areas, a break here could see some stronger stops on a move through the 1.1680 level however, congestion is likely to be strong through the 1.1650 level.
  • GBP: Some EURGBP selling saw the Cable push to above the 1.3185 areas into the Tokyo session before dipping back and basing along the 1.3170 areas through to the grey hours unable to push beyond the 1.3180 levels. With rumour and Brexit chatter all looking a little moot at the moment as the Government continues its steady march to ratifying the implementation laws along the way and the market remaining in the 1.3050-13220 range for the immediate future it would seem, Topside offer into the 1.3200-20 levels for the moment are fairly strong with weak stops likely on a move through the level and congestion likely through that level with a move above the 1.3250 level likely to see offers increasing on a move towards the 1.3300 areas with strong offers just through the level, downside bids light congestion through the 1.3100 areas with stronger bids likely below the 1.3070 levels and particularly into 1.3050, a test through that level will see stronger stops and the market opening to the 1.3000 level and lighter sentimental bids with limited congestion on the 1.29 handle.
  • JPY: A steady rise from the lows around the 112.80 areas pushing through to the 113.00 level the market continued to struggle with the level in light trading before pushing through late in the session testing to the 113.10 area and holding above 113.00 to the grey hours, Downside bids light and congestive through to the 112.00 areas with the bids likely to continue back through to the 111.80 area before weak stops appear with the possibility of stronger stops appearing, and while the congestion is likely to continue the downside opens to a larger drop and free to the 110.50 level.
  • AUD: Opening around the 0.7590 areas the market pushed through in a narrow range with the release of the employment numbers and a quick gyration with the full time numbers exceeding expectations, the market initially dipped on the release before bouncing from the 0.7570 areas with the employment rate number itself weaker than expected but the overall unemployment rate coming in a little lower than expected. The market peaked quickly at the 0.7610 area before dropping back and trading around the 76 cent levels through to the grey hours and losing a little ground along the way. Downside bids congestive but lighter than the 76 cent handle with the market likely to see stronger bids into the 0.7550 areas and weak stops limited through the level, for the moment the 75 cent level is likely to become key for any further loses with strong bids into the area and the congestion spread lightly through the next 2 big figures to the 73 cent area. Topside offers into the into the 0.7640-60 area limited as the level reforms weak stops possible but probably light and stronger offers then appearing on a move through towards the 77 cent levels with those offers likely to extend through to the 0.7730 areas.

 

Overnight News                                                                  

CAD:

Canadian inflation could rise as slack drag ends Wilkins says

USD:

People are underrating the odds of government shutdown in December

Wisconsin Republican says plan unfairly benefits corporations over other businesses, says he finds the bills process offensive

MXN:

Mexican Peso falls to 8 month low as NAFTA talks convene

AUD:

RBA’s Ellis says recession no answer for the next growth wave

NZD:

Consumer confidence gauge falls to seven month low – ANZ

USD/JPY:

Japan and US stage Naval exercises amid N. Korea tension

 

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

AUD       Consumer Inflation Expectation Nov A 3.70% | P 4.30%

AUD       Employment Change Oct A 3.7K | C 18.9K | P 19.8K | R 26.6K

AUD       Unemployment Rate Oct A 5.40% | C 5.50% | P 5.50%

09:30     GBP       Retail Sales M/M Oct C 0.20% | P -0.80%

10:00     EUR        Eurozone CPI M/M Oct C 0.10% | P 0.40%

10:00     EUR        Eurozone CPI Y/Y Oct (F) C 1.40% | P 1.50%

10:00     EUR        Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Oct (F) C 0.90% | P 0.90%

13:30     CAD       Manufacturing Sales M/M Sep C -0.20% | P 1.60%

13:30     CAD       International Securities Transactions (CAD) Sep P 9.85B

13:30     USD       Initial Jobless Claims (NOV 11) C 234K | P 239K

13:30     USD       Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Nov C 24.1 | P 27.9

13:30     USD       Import Price Index M/M Oct C 0.40% | P 0.70%

14:15     USD       Industrial Production M/M Oct C 0.50% | P 0.30%

14:15     USD       Capacity Utilization Oct C 76.30% | P 76.00%

15:00     USD       NAHB Housing Market Index Nov C 67 | P 68

15:30     USD       Natural Gas Storage P 15B

 

Harry Hindsight

  • EUR: While volumes were ok through the Asian session the range remained tight through to the grey hours, opening around the 1.1800 levels the market continued trading around the 1.1790 level, early buyers into the grey hours saw the market moving quickly through to the 1.1810 areas before holding until London opening before testing through to the 1.1830 areas and a slow grind through into mid-morning and testing the 1.1850 area, the move through to NYK saw the market becalmed and holding the 1.1840 areas before NYK bought quickly to extend the high to the 1.1860 level and dropping back quickly with US numbers in line with expectations and a better retail sales number saw the USD rallying back and the Euro slipping to the opening levels around the 1.1790 areas.
  • GBP: Opening weakly the Cable dipped from the opening levels into the 1.3130 areas as it moved into early Tokyo, the market rose slowly through the Asian session unable to move beyond the 1.3150 level and moved into the grey hour starting a quicker rise pushing through the opening levels and slowing only as it approached the London opening, the market extended through the 1.3210 levels on a spike once the employment numbers were released before dropping quickly back as the market read weaker job opening numbers dipping back to the lows on a savage move before chopping around the 1.3160 levels in an ever decreasing range through to the close.
  • JPY: USDJPY moved through into the Tokyo session holding the 113.40 areas before dropping quickly off through to the 113.05 areas before holding quietly through to the grey hours, the move through to the London session saw the USD slipping lower through to the 112.70 levels and a weak holding before dipping into the NYK session to test the 112.50 levels and rising slowly through to the close of London pushing to the 113.20 level. The move to the close saw the market again drifting and the market holding eventually just above the 112.80 areas and much of the downside cleared.
  • AUD: A slow start quickly enlivened by a large swing in the Consumer confidence number and the market dropped quickly from the open9ing around the 0.7630 level through to the 76 cent areas, the market continued to decline at a slower rate slipping to the 0.7575 areas before finding a base and rising only to the 0.7585 levels for the move through into the London session, the market moved off the lows on the opening in London and tested to the 76 cent again and then ranged through to the NYK session holding around the level, NYK took the market to the 0.7620 levels in a limited rally before dropping back to extend the lows a fraction and rising to a quiet close.

 

Yesterday’s premiership results

AUD       Westpac Consumer Confidence Nov A -1.70% | P 3.60%

JPY         GDP Q/Q Q3 (PP A 0.30% | C 0.40% | P 0.60%

JPY         GDP Deflator Y/Y Q3 (P) A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P -0.40%

AUD       Wage Price Index Q/Q Q3 A 0.50% | C 0.70% | P 0.50%

JPY         Industrial Production M/M Sep (F) A -1.00% | C -1.10% | P -1.10%

GBP       Jobless Claims Change Oct A 1.1K | C 2.4K | P 1.7K | R 2.6K

GBP       Claimant Count Rate Oct A 2.30% | P 2.30%

GBP       Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y Sep A 2.20% | C 2.10% | P 2.20%

GBP       ILO Unemployment Rate 3M Sep A 4.30% | C 4.30% | P 4.30%

GBP       Employment Change 3M/3M Sep A -14K | C 50K | P 94K

EUR        Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Sep A 25.0B | C 21.4B | P 21.6B | R 21.0B

USD       CPI M/M Oct A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.50%

USD       CPI Y/Y Oct A 2.00% | C 2.00% | P 2.20%

USD       CPI Core M/M Oct A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.10%

USD       CPI Core Y/Y Oct A 1.80% | C 1.70% | P 1.70%

USD       Empire State Manufacturing Nov A 19.4 | C 25 | P 30.2

USD       Advance Retail Sales M/M Oct A 0.20% | C 0.00% | P 1.60% | R 1.90%

USD       Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M Oct A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P 1.00% | R 1.20%

USD       Business Inventories Sep A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P 0.70% | R 0.60%

USD       Crude Oil Inventories A 1.9M | C -2.2M | P 2.2M

USD       Net Long-term TIC Flows Sep A 80.9B | C 34.6B | P 67.2B | R 73.2B

 

Good Luck,

Andy

 

 

 

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