Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 111.931 | EURUSD 1.18475 | AUDUSD 0.75711 | NZDUSD 0.68883 | USDCAD 1.28647 | USDCHF 0.98458 | GBPUSD 1.34094 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.18711 | 1.18468
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 112.140 | 111.883
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.34801 | 1.34085
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.98621 | 0.98347
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.75927 | 0.75606
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.28692 | 1.28589
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.68890 | 0.68328
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.16804 | 1.16612
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88389 | 0.88024
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 133.067 | 132.564
For today
- EUR: GBP rallying and dragging the Euro slowly higher with it, Opening around the 1.1850 levels the market and slowly rising to the 1.1855 into the Tokyo session however, with Cable rising a little more firmly into the Tokyo session the Euro was dragged along for the ride steadily rising to the 1.1870 areas before slipping and holding through to the grey hours around the 1.1865 areas. Topside offers light into the 1.1880 level and increasing into the 1.1900 areas with weak stops on a push through the 1.1920 areas and opening up another test through the 1.1950 areas with stronger congestion and the 1.2000 level likely to cause problems. Downside bids through into the 1.1820 areas are likely to be light with stronger bids from there into the 1.1800 areas and light congestion mixed with weak stops on a push through the 1.1780 areas with stronger bids likely to be holding around the 1.1750 areas and weakness likely through the 1.1740 level.
- GBP: Opening around the 1.3410 areas the market moved quietly into the Tokyo session before quickly pushing through the 1.3450 areas with minor stops clearing the way, the market then struggled around the 1.3480 levels for a good portion of the session attempting the level on two occasion but being pushed back to the 1.3470 areas to hold through to the grey hours, Congestion to the topside through the 1.3480-1.3500 level with likely profit taking and limited new shorts looking to play the range however, a push through the 1.3550 area will possibly see weak stops and the market opening for a quick push through the 1.3600 level with limited sentimental offers into the area and 1.3650 areas the highs from September vulnerable to a test, with talk now focused on the Eire/UK border situation any news will likely have some effect on the market, Downside bids likely to be a little stronger as Brexit news continues to focus on potentials rather than uncertainties the market is likely to be better bids however, there is weakness on a push back through the 1.3400 level with weak stops on a push of the 1.3350 areas with some stubborn congestion in the area before the stronger 1.3300 area becomes the focus and the key to any downside move.
- JPY: A very limited range for the USDJPY with the market moving up from the opening around the 111.90 areas to push into the Tokyo session testing the 112.05 areas, the move deeper into the Tokyo session saw the market testing a little higher but remaining for the most part around the 112.00 levels with the initial push just above the 112.10 level until late in the session, as with yesterday some strong GBPJPY buying helping the markets towards those highs with the move into the grey hours extending the highs towards 112.15. Grey hour buying moved in before I’d started the final version today pushing to the 112.20 levels on the news that US is seeking to deny China market economy status in WTO according to the FT, Topside offers light through the 112.00-20 areas possible weak stops then and the market opening to the more congestive 112.50-113.00 areas with weakness likely to be through that level however, stronger offers then start to appear as the market pushes to the 113.50 levels and growing on a move into the 114.00 level, downside bids light through the 111.50 level with stronger bids appearing on a test through the 111.20 area with weak stops possible through 110.80 however, one suspect that those stops are likely to be quickly absorbed with stronger bids into the 110.50 areas and key to any move lower.
- AUD: The market drifted in early trading through the 0.7560 levels as news of the commission into the Banks is announced however, while this caused a minor run to the lows the market moved into the Tokyo session reversing the losses, some better expenditure figures added to good PMI numbers out of China saw the Oz rise through to the 0.7590 areas before meeting anything significant and holding the level through to the grey hour, Topside offers light back through the 76 cent areas with stronger offers likely to appear around the 0.7640 areas and through to 0.7660 even through the level congestion continues to dog the topside and only a clear push through the 0.7710 area will see weak stops appearing and the market testing the 0.7730 level with possible weak stops opening a test through the usual 40-60 area of orders, however, beyond there the offers are likely to be stronger and with the day’s news on the commission to investigate the banks investment is likely to be the first thing to suffer and the topside for the moment very limited. Downside bids light through to the 0.7560-40 areas where some strength appears with weak stops unlikely until a push through the 0.7530 level with bids waiting around the 75 cent level, and congestion below.
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Overnight News                                                                 Â
EUR:
ECB’s Knot calls for ending stimulus and declaring victory RTRS
USD:
Yellen: says US economic expansion is increasingly broad
Yellen: Core inflation has remained surprisingly subdued
Yellen: We don’t foresee need to alter balance sheet program
Yellen: Recent low inflation likely reflects transitory factors
Yellen: Low inflation could reflect something more persistent
Yellen: Economic growth appears to be up from subdued pace
Yellen: Vulnerabilities in financial sector appear moderate
Yellen: Little if any market effect from balance sheet runoff to date
Yellen: Monetary policy isn’t on a preset course
Yellen: Wage growth has remained relatively modest
Yellen: Expect gradual rate increases to be appropriate
Yellen: Further job market strengthening to boost wage growth
Corporate tax rate in Flux as Senate nears initial vote WSJ
NZD:
New Zealand home building approvals post biggest drop since 2015
Business confidence slumps to lowest since 2009
AUD:
Turnbull calls inquire into banking industry
Turnbull: Royal commission will have 12month reporting date and will not put capitalism on trial
Turnbull: speculation about banking inquiry cannot go on and local banks operate with social license
GBP:
UK consumer confidence falls in Christmas blow to retailers
CNY:
Some local authorities off target over China’s capacity cuts RTRS
GBP/EUR:
Working on Irish border fix as Brexit deadline nears
USD/CNY:
US said seeking to deny China market economy status in WTO – FT
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M Oct A -9.60% | P -2.30% | R -2.50%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Oct (P) A 0.50% | C 1.80% | P -1.00%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ANZ Business Confidence Nov A -39.1 | P -10.1
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GfK Consumer Confidence Nov A -12 | C -11 | P -10
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Private Capital Expenditure Q3 A 1.00% | C 1.00% | P 0.80% | R 1.10%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Approvals M/M Oct A 0.90% | C -1.00% | P 1.50% | R 0.60%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI Nov A 51.8 | C 51.5 | P 51.6
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Non-manufacturing PMI Nov A 54.8 | P 54.3
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Y/Y Oct A | C -2.80% | P -2.90%
06:45Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q3 C 0.60% | P 0.30%
08:00Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â KOF Leading Indicator Nov C 109.5 | P 109.1
08:15Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Real Y/Y Oct C 0.30% | P -0.40%
08:55Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Change Nov C -10K | P -11K
08:55Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Claims Rate Nov C 5.60% | P 5.60%
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Unemployment Rate Oct C 8.90% | P 8.90%
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Nov C 1.60% | P 1.40%
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Nov (A) C 1.00% | P 0.90%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Current Account Balance (CAD) Q3 C -20.3B | P -16.3B
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (NOV 25) C 241K | P 239K
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Personal Income Oct C 0.30% | P 0.40%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Personal Spending Oct C 0.30% | P 1.00%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Deflator M/M Oct C 0.10% | P 0.40%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Deflator Y/Y Oct C 1.50% | P 1.60%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core M/M Oct C 0.20% | P 0.10%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core Y/Y Oct C 1.40% | P 1.30%
14:45Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Chicago PMI Nov C 62.3 | P 66.2
15:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P -46B
21:45Â Â Â Â NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Terms of Trade Index Q/Q Q3 C 1.30% | P 1.50%
23:30Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Oct C 2.80% | P 2.80%
23:30Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Overall Household Spending Y/Y Oct C -0.30% | P -0.30%
23:30Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â National CPI Core Y/Y Oct C 0.80% | P 0.70%
23:30Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Nov C 0.60% | P 0.60%
23:50Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Capital Spending Q3 C 3.20% | P 1.50%
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Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A slow rise through the day to early morning in London saw the Euro opening around the 1.1840 level and trading for the most part around the 1.1850 through the Tokyo session, the move into the grey hours saw the market finally start to lift through the 1.1855 level and helped by the French GDP number which was in line with expectations and previous the market pushed to the 1.1865 levels for the opening in London, the move continued with initial sentiment and the steady pull of GBP and the market peaked just above the 1.1880 as it moved into the Eurozone numbers, with the overall tone of the Confidence numbers a lot weaker than expected and the market dropped back over the next hour or so to test to the 1.1830 levels for the move into the NYK session, early sellers took the market to its lows just beyond the 1.1820 areas before concerns about inflation again moved into the USD market and the Euro was allowed to recapture the opening levels and push through to hold above the 1.1850 area through to the close ranging from that 50 area through to 1.1865 to the close.
- GBP: Early buyers on the back of the UK/EU agreement on the divorce bill, with the only doubt to overcome for the immediate is who gets the house in Northern Ireland as it were, the move into the Tokyo session saw the market moving slowly from the opening around the 1.3350 areas to push through the 1.3380 albeit briefly and then slipping back to trade through to the grey hours around the 1.3360 level, grey hours buying saw the rally start again with the market pushing through the 1.3400 level as the London traders sat at their desks with the market then having a final push into the official opening to make early highs into the 1.3430 area, the initial buying in London saw the market drifting for much of the session through to deep into the NYK period with the market having a little gyration around the NYK option cut before again renewing the rise and this time pushing through to the 1.3445 areas before holding through to the close above the 1.3400 level.
- JPY: The first half of the day was a struggle with early buyers in GBPJPY taking the USDJPY through to the 111.65 levels before the market drifted back to the opening levels around 111.45 and basing around that level through deep into the London session, one minor attempt in early London saw the USDJPY trade to its lows however, it was a minor attempt and the market as it moved towards the NYK session started to make some headway rising into the new session to renew contact with those highs of 111.65, US GDP improved above expectations however, the price index came in lower and although the USD rallied sharply against the JPY pushing quickly to the 112.00 level it was tempered a little by that index number, for a good proportion of the NYK session the market remained close to the 112 levels extending the high to the 112.15 area before drifting back through the London close and trading around the 111.85 level through top the close and unable to push beyond the 112.00 again.
- AUD: Early buyers saw the Oz push to the 0.7605 areas before dropping back and trending lower through the Asian session to test to the 0.7585 level, the move to the grey hours was a slow drawn out effort to regain some of the lost ground but it was lacklustre at best and the move into the London session saw only a token attempt at the 76 cent levels before drifting through the session to move into the NYK session holding around the 0.7575 areas, NYK were quick sellers triggering some weak stops however the downside saw some limited bids into the 0.7550 areas sufficient to hold the market, the move to the London close saw the market regaining the 0.7575 areas and trading to a close around that level in quiet trading.
Yesterday’s premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Trade Y/Y Oct A 0.80% | C 0.00% | P 2.20%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Nov A -0.10% | P -0.10%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â UBS Consumption Indicator Oct A 1.54 | P 1.56 | R 1.51
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â French GDP Q/Q Q3 (P) A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P 0.50%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Mortgage Approvals Oct A 65K | C 65K | P 66K
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â M4 Money Supply M/M Oct A 0.60% | C 0.30% | P -0.20% | R -0.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Business Climate Indicator Nov A 1.49 | C 1.51 | P 1.44
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Economic Confidence Nov A 114.6 | C 114.6 | P 114 | R 114.1
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Confidence Nov A 8.2 | C 8.6 | P 7.9 | R 8
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services Confidence Nov A 16.3 | C 16.7 | P 16.2
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Consumer Confidence Nov (F) A 0.1 | C 0.1 | P 0.1
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M Nov (P) A 0.30% | C 0.30% | P 0.00%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y Nov (P) A 1.80% | C 1.70% | P 1.60%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Annualized Q/Q Q3 (S) A 3.30% | C 3.20% | P 3.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Price Index Q3 (S) A 2.10% | C 2.20% | P 2.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Pending Home Sales M/M Oct A 3.50% | C 1.20% | P 0.00% | R -0.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A -3.4M | C -2.5M | P -1.9M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Federal Reserve Beige Book
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Good Luck,
Andy
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