Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 113.546 | EURUSD 1.1742 | AUDUSD 0.75582 | NZDUSD 0.69266 | USDCAD 1.28656 | USDCHF 0.99146 | GBPUSD 1.33178 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.17621 | 1.17353
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 113.574 | 113.125
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.33338 | 1.33091
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99191 | 0.98909
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.75809 | 0.75529
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.28810 | 1.28491
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.69613 | 0.69318
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.16436 | 1.16341
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88251 | 0.88117
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 133.358 | 133.048
For today
- EUR: A slow rise for the Euro pushing from the opening just below the 1.1740 levels and testing through the 1.1750 level with weak stops helping the market to 1.1760 and ranging for a couple of hours around those levels into the grey hours, Topside offers through into the 1.1790 levels still remain with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.1820 areas and limited congestive offers through to the possibly stronger 1.1850 level any move through that level to the 1.1900 level is likely to be strongly contested with the market likely to particularly strong around the 1.1880 areas onwards, and everything likely to be dependent on the FOMC which historically raises rates in December more often than not. Downside bids light through to the 1.1730-20 areas with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.1700 area likely to see weak stops and the market then likely to come to an abrupt halt into the 1.1660 areas and stronger bids before opening on a move through the 1.1640 level and congestive bids around the sentimental levels.
- GBP: Cable saw a limited range with the market slowly edging higher after a slow move through the early part of the session, holding around the 1.3320 level the market eventually pushed away from opening level and tested through to the 1.3335 areas to hold through into the grey hours, Topside offers light through the 1.3350 level and stronger offers not making an appearance through the 1.3380 areas into the 1.3400 level with weak stops through the level and congestive offers then continuing through the next big figure with stronger offers into the 1.3440 level and some weak stops before offers reappearing on a push through the 1.3450 level increasing into the 1.3500 level, Downside bids into the 1.3300 areas reasonable strong with weak stops likely on a move through the level and limited bids until the 1.3220-00 areas where stronger bids are expected however, given yesterday’s inflationary news is likely to leave the market supported to some extent and everything depends on the FOMC meeting and GBP reaction.
- JPY: Moving to the early highs from the opening testing through the 113.55 level before dropping back into the Tokyo opening and holding through to mid-session before some selling saw the market drop quickly through the 113.40 level with light stops pushing the market to below the 113.15 level before holding into the grey hours around the 113.35. Light bids into the 113.00 areas with weak stops likely through the 112.80 areas with some limited congestion through the level and the market seeing some limited bids into the 112.50 areas and then stronger on a push through to the 112.00 level a break through the 111.80 levels is likely to see stronger stops appearing and the market then vulnerable to a test to the 111.00 areas. Topside offers through the 113.90-114.20 level quickly open to weak stops and the market fighting against congestive offers through to the 114.60 level with those offers likely to increase into the 115.00 areas with possible option barriers in the area.
- AUD: The market opened around the 0.7560 areas with limited dip into the 0.7555 areas before a steady rise through to test the highs from yesterday and some stronger offers from those highs, a push through the 76 cent level is possibly going to see weak stops however, congestion through to the 0.7640 areas is likely to increase before stronger stops on a push through the 0.7660 level and weak stops mixed with congestion. Downside bids light through to the 75 cent level where the market for the moment has some strong bids and congestive bids thereafter with several months of data between the 75-73 cent areas likely to slow the market a little with sentimental values of importance.
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Overnight News
GBP:
Interest rates steady until the New Year, say shadow MPC
USD:
Pres. Trump has raised possibility of increase, which amounts to about $200 billion over a decade with 2 point in corporate tax 20% vs. 22% – WSJ
Democrats expected to win Alabama AP and Fox
Doug Jones wins US senate race in Alabama in blow to Trump
EUR/GBP:
EU, UK need tailor made relationship, Gentiloni tells FT
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Consumer Confidence Dec A 3.60% | P -1.70%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Machine Orders M/M Oct A 5.00% | C 2.70% | P -8.10%
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M Nov (F) C 0.30% | P 0.30%
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y Nov (F) C 1.80% | P 1.80%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Jobless Claims Change Nov C 0.4K | P 1.1K
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Claimant Count Rate Nov P 2.30%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â ILO Unemployment Rate 3M Oct C 4.20% | P 4.30%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y Oct C 2.50% | P 2.20%
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Oct C 0.10% | P -0.60%
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Employment Q/Q Q3 C 0.40% | P 0.40%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Nov C 0.40% | P 0.10%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Nov C 2.20% | P 2.00%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core M/M Nov C 0.20% | P 0.20%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core Y/Y Nov C 1.80% | P 1.80%
15:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P -5.6M
19:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â FOMC Rate Decision C 1.50% | P 1.25%
19:30    USD      FOMC Press Conference                                           Â
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Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A quiet session through Asia with the market trading off the opening areas around the 1.1770 area before slowly drifting higher through into the grey hours to test the 1.1780 level, the move into the London session the market extended the highs above the 1.1790 level before slipping back to the opening areas, the market held through to the NYK session, from that point on though the market slipped steadily lower into the London close testing through to the 1.1720 areas with some light stops triggered through the 1.1750 areas, before starting a slow push towards the 1.1750 level and drifting a little to the close.
- GBP: Asia was very quiet for the Cable with the market holding around the 1.3340 areas barely able to push below the 1.3335 area, and struggling into the 1.3350 level and only just pushing through into the grey hours, London opening saw the market pushing to the 1.3365 level and the inflationary numbers held really no surprises a little weaker in the RPI number but CPI stronger and the BoE governor having to put pen to paper to explain the breach of 3%, Cable gyrated first on the knee jerk reaction to the 3.10% CPI number and then dropping back from the highs around the 1.3380 level to test to the 1.3310 level with the market unconvinced that interest rates will rise on this news, the market bounced off the lows and again steady buying took the market into the NYK session pushing the 1.3370 level, again early buying was not particularly convincing and it wasn’t long before the market reversed again testing initially back to the opening levels and then slowly drifting through to the London close and pushing to the 1.3305 areas with the market barely making it back to the 1.3320 levels for the close.
- JPY: A slow Asian session saw the market drifting from the opening around the 113.55 levels to slip slowly back to the 113.40 area into the grey hours, London did very little trading through into the NYK session recovering the early losses and NYK took over with stronger PPI numbers saw the USD push through to the 113.75 levels over the next hour before then drifting through to the Budget statement dipping quickly to the lows again and bouncing instantly back to the 113.65 areas and then holding above the 113.50 areas through to the close in quiet trading.
- AUD: Weaker Business numbers saw the market move lower from the opening 0.7525 level however, strong bids into the 0.7520 level were enough to support the market and turn it back to the 0.7535 level and hold through to the grey hours, early buyers then moved into the market and the opening in London saw the market pushing through the 0.7550 areas, the London session continued to buy pushing the market steadily through into the NYK session testing the 0.7580 areas before dipping a little through the NYK period on a slightly stronger USD to hold the 0.7550 areas through to the close just a little higher.
Yesterday’s premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Domestic CGPI M/M Nov A 0.40% | C 0.20% | P 0.30%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Domestic CGPI Y/Y Nov A 3.50% | C 3.30% | P 3.40%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAB Business Conditions Nov A 12 | P 21
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAB Business Confidence Nov A 6 | P 8
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index Q/Q Q3 A -0.20% | C 0.50% | P 1.90%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tertiary Industry Index M/M Oct A 0.30% | C 0.20% | P -0.20%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Nov A 0.30% | C 0.20% | P 0.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Nov A 3.10% | C 3.00% | P 3.00%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Core CPI Y/Y Nov A 2.70% | C 2.70% | P 2.70%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RPI M/M Nov A 0.20% | C 0.30% | P 0.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RPI Y/Y Nov A 3.90% | C 4.00% | P 4.00%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Input M/M Nov A 1.80% | C 1.50% | P 1.00%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Input Y/Y Nov A 7.30% | C 6.70% | P 4.60% | R 4.80%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output M/M Nov A 0.30% | C 0.30% | P 0.20%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Y/Y Nov A 3.00% | C 3.00% | P 2.80%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Core M/M Nov A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Core Y/Y Nov A 2.20% | C 2.20% | P 2.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index Y/Y Oct A 4.50% | C 5.20% | P 5.40%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW Economic Sentiment Dec A 17.4 | C 17.9 | P 18.7
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW Current Situation Dec A 89.3 | C 88.7 | P 88.8
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Dec A 29 | C 30.2 | P 30.9
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NFIB Small Business Optimism Nov A 107.5 | C 104 | P 103.8
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI M/M Nov A 0.40% | C 0.40% | P 0.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Y/Y Nov A 3.10% | C 3.00% | P 2.80%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core M/M Nov A 0.30% | C 0.20% | P 0.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core Y/Y Nov A 2.40% | C 2.40% | P 2.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Monthly Budget Statement Nov A -138.5B | C -135.2B | P -63.2B
Good Luck,
Andy
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