Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 112.54 | EURUSD 1.1826 | AUDUSD 0.76375 | NZDUSD 0.69922 | USDCAD 1.28143 | USDCHF 0.9854 | GBPUSD 1.3417 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.18438 | 1.18219
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 112.797 | 112.557
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.34485 | 1.33899
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.98664 | 0.98401
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.76749 | 0.76268
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.28240 | 1.27999
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.70247 | 0.6997
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.16686 | 1.16463
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88373 | 0.87982
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 133.509 | 133.125
For today
- EUR: Pushing off the opening around the 1.1830 level the market was unable to push to far though the 1.1840 areas before drifting through the session back to the opening level and moving into the grey hours pushing into the 20’s. Topside offers likely to continue through to the 1.1880 level with strong congestion through the 1.1850 levels to that level, possible weak stops limited on a push through the level with limited break out stops possibly through the resistance level, a test to the 1.1900 areas has limited offers with some congestion through the level and stronger offers then starting to appear on any move towards the 1.1950 areas, downside bids light into the 1.1800 level with weak stops likely to be hanging around just below the area and the market likely to quickly move towards the congested 1.1750 areas with limited bids through to the 1.1740-30 areas and weakness below with stops possibly appearing through the 1.1700 areas with decent bids possibly holding around the 1.1660 level.
- GBP: Cable opened around the 1.3410 level and holding through the level into the Tokyo session before finding some light buying testing through the 1.3420 level and holding again before testing the 1.3440 areas with some weak stops triggered on a spike towards the 1.3450 level but again holding a tight range through too late in the session before dropping off from the 1.3445 level and back to the 1.3430 areas for the move into the grey hours. Topside offers likely to increase the closer the market moves towards the 1.3500 areas with supply likely to continue through to the 1.3550 level in varying degrees of resistance, a push through that level will quickly see the 1.3600 targeted as stronger stops appear above the level and the market pushing towards the bottom of the Brexit lows from 2017 with nearest target then 1.3840 area, Downside bids light back through to the 1.3320 areas where bids start to appear and increasing into the 1.3300 level however, a push through sees limited congestion down through to the 1.3250 areas and stronger bids down towards the 1.3220-00 level with plenty congestion below through to the strong 1.3150 level.
- JPY: USDJPY moved off its low close and pushed through to the 112.80 level and into the Tokyo session, after a few hours of holding the level before drifting off again to the 112.60 areas for the move into the grey hours, and a very quiet volume session, downside congestion through the 112.50 levels likely to be weak with the market becoming stronger on a move to the 112.00 levels and the lows of the month so far a push through the 111.80 level will likely see weak stops appearing and the market quickly pushing through to the lightly congested 111.50 areas and the stronger bids around the 111.00 level and possibly better bids into the 110.50 area. Topside offers light through to the 113.50 level with some congestion and stronger offers into the level extending to the 113.90 areas before weak stops through the 114.00 are triggered, congestive offers will likely absorb the limited stops and the market will then struggle over the next 60 pips or so before finding the 3 months highs under threat and stronger stops appearing on a move through those 114.60 areas.
- AUD: What would have been a very quiet session for the Oz was interrupted by another set of decent employment numbers and the market quickly pushing through the 0.7640 resistance line and weak stops triggered and a quick move to the 0.7670 level and a slow drift through to the grey hours drifting a little to the 0.7660 level. Congestive offers joined by stronger supply on a push into the 0.7680 areas and continuing through to the 0.7710 level before weak stops appear in the market and although the market may test a little higher November’s highs are likely to see some resistance around the 0.7630 level before opening the market to a test towards the 0.7780 areas. Downside bids likely to be light back below the 76 cent areas with some weak stops appearing but the market easily opento a test back to the stronger 75 cent level with strong stops likely on a break of the level and opening to the next big figure.
Overnight News
USD:
FED: sees faster 2018 growth, labour market staying strong
FED: Median shows fund rate 3.1% at end 2020 vs. 2.9% stated in Sep
FED’s Yellen says this year’s surprising softness in inflation looks largely transitory
Yellen: Financial markets have reflected fiscal prospects
Yellen: Nothing flashing red, orange on financial stability
Yellen: Not seeing worrisome build up on leverage or credit
Yellen: Low interest rates tend to support higher valuations
Yellen: High valuations don’t necessarily mean overvalued
More dissent with decision (Evans and Kashkari)
House, Senate Republicans reach deal on final tax bill
Agreement lowers top individual rate to 37%, 21% corporate rate
GBP:
PM May and the Tory government had its first defeat with 11 Tories voting with the reform bill
AUD:
Myer sales in first 2 weeks in Dec, weakened further, down 5% YoY
Myer says sales to end of Nov down 2.3%
Myer expects 1h 2018 pre-items NPAT materially below year ago
CNY:
China not happy about WTO member complaints
NZD:
NZ Government unveils plans to boost spending, sees slightly lower budget surplus
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Inflation Expectation Dec A 3.70% | P 3.70%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RICS House Price Balance Nov A 0% | C 0% | P 1%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change Nov A 61.6K | C 19.2K | P 3.7K | R 7.8K
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Nov A 5.40% | C 5.40% | P 5.40%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Y/Y Nov A 10.20% | C 10.30% | P 10.00%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD Y/Y Nov A 7.20% | C 7.20% | P 7.30%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y Nov A 6.10% | C 6.20% | P 6.20%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Oct (F) A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P 0.50%
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Manufacturing PMI Dec (P) C 57.2 | P 57.7
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Services PMI Dec (P) C 59.9 | P 60.4
08:15Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices M/M Nov C 0.30% | P 0.50%
08:15Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Nov P 1.20%
08:30Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SNB Sight Deposit Interest Rate C -0.75% | P -0.75%
08:30    CHF       SNB 3-Month Libor Upper Target Range               C -0.25% | P -0.25%
08:30Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SNB 3-Month Libor Lower Target Range C -1.25% | P -1.25%
08:30Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Manufacturing PMI Dec (P) C 62 | P 62.5
08:30Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Services PMI Dec (P) C 54.6 | P 54.3
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Dec (P) C 59.7 | P 60.1
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services PMI Dec (P) C 56 | P 56.2
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Nov C Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.40% | P 0.30%
12:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Bank Rate C 0.50% | P 0.50%
12:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BOE Asset Purchase Target Dec C 435B | P 435B
12:00    GBP      MPC Official Bank Rate Votes C 0–0—9 | P 7–0–2
12:00    GBP      MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes C 0–0—9 | P 0–0–9
12:45Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Rate Decision C 0.00% | P 0.00%
13:30Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Press Conference
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Housing Price Index M/M Oct C 0.20% | P 0.20%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (DEC 09) C 239K | P 236K
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Advance M/M Nov C 0.30% | P 0.20%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M Nov C 0.70% | P 0.10%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Import Price Index M/M Nov C 0.80% | P 0.20%
14:45Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â US Manufacturing PMI Dec (P) C 54.2 | P 53.9
14:45Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â US Services PMI Dec (P) C 54.6 | P 54.5
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business Inventories Oct C -0.10% | P 0.00%
15:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P 2B
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Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A quiet session through to the FOMC release with the Asian session opening around the 1.1740 level and slowly rising through 1.1750 level to peak just above the 1.1760 level before holding the mid-range to the grey hours, early traders sold the market back through to the opening levels and the move into the London session saw only a slight drift through to the 1.1730 areas before moving into the NYK session, CPI in line with expectations saw the Euro push higher again to range around the 1.1760 level and then slowly rise to 1.1770 into the release, with the market fully expecting the rate rise the market was overdone and the USD dropped back against most other currencies, possibly the increase in dissension however, the market started a steady climb through to the 1.1800 level and popped through triggering some weak stops on a push through and tested to the highs into the close.
- GBP: As with the Euro the Cable slowly tested through the 1.3330 levels having opened around the 1.3320 areas, the move through to the grey hours and finally into the London opening was dull at best with the market extending slightly above the 1.1330 level before dipping on the opening to set the lows just above the 1.3310 area, another set of good employment numbers with the unemployment rate holding steady if not in line with expectations and the Cable rising through to test the 1.3350 areas, struggling initially and ranging around the level before moving into the NYK session and pushing through to the 1.3370 areas and into the FOMC, as with the Euro Cable rallied quickly through to the 1.3420 levels spiking to the 1.3430 areas before holding quietly into the close.
- JPY: USDJPY opened around the 113.55 level and drifted through into the Tokyo session drifting through the early part of the session testing through the 113.50 levels and holding through till midway through the session before dropping quickly through to the 113.20 areas, the market bounced into the grey hours holding just short of the 113.50 areas and continuing through the London session holding around the 113.40 levels before dropping through to the 113.00 level on the US CPI numbers, bouncing around a little from that point between the 113.00-30 levels and through to the FOMC, the market dropped quickly through to the 112.50 areas on the release and the market held around the level through into the close.
- AUD: A quiet range from the opening with the market drifting a little before Tokyo to the 0.7555 areas before starting a slow range through to the 0.7580 areas and holding the 0.7570-80 level into the London session, London were slow sellers back to the lows and then holding the 0.7570 areas into the NYK period pushing quickly after the numbers to the 76 cent level and a slow range through to the FOMC ranging around the 0.7610 level before rising to the 0.7640 level on limited action for the Oz into FOMC, the market drifted from that point holding the level.
Yesterday’s premiership results
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Consumer Confidence Dec A 3.60% | P 1.70%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Machine Orders M/M Oct A 5.00% | C 2.70% | P -8.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M Nov (F) A 0.30% | C 0.30% | P 0.30%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y Nov (F) A 1.80% | C 1.80% | P 1.80%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Jobless Claims Change Nov A 5.9K | C 0.4K | P 1.1K
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Claimant Count Rate Nov A 2.30% | P 2.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â ILO Unemployment Rate 3M Oct A 4.30% | C 4.20% | P 4.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y Oct A 2.50% | C 2.50% | P 2.20% | R 2.30%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Oct A 0.20% | C 0.10% | P -0.60% | R -0.50%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Employment Q/Q Q3 A 0.40% | C 0.40% | P 0.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Nov A 0.40% | C 0.40% | P 0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Nov A 2.20% | C 2.20% | P 2.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core M/M Nov A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core Y/Y Nov A 1.70% | C 1.80% | P 1.80%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A -5.1M | C -3.6M | P -5.6M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â FOMC Rate Decision A 1.50% | C 1.50% | P 1.25%
USD      FOMC Press Conference                                 Â
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Good Luck,
Andy
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