Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 112.749 | EURUSD 1.20679 | AUDUSD 0.78645 | NZDUSD 0.71525 | USDCAD 1.24877 | USDCHF 0.97464 | GBPUSD 1.35512 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20798 | 1.20647
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 113.001 | 112.727
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.35734 | 1.35444
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.97518 | 0.97398
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.78698 | 0.78429
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.24954 | 1.24833
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.71647 | 0.71465
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.17670 | 1.17489
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.89113 | 0.88952
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 136.426 | 135.984
For today
- EUR: A very quiet session with the market holding for the most part around the closing levels with only one minor attempt to push through the 1.2080 areas before returning into the opening area through to the grey hours, Topside offers into the 1.2100 areas are likely to extend through the 1.2120 level with stops through the level and the market opening to further gains with light congestion and only sentimental levels on the way to 1.2300. Downside bids weak through to the 1.2000 level with weak stops on a break through the 1.1980 areas with and limited congestion to 1.1940-60 level, and stronger bids through the 1.1900 areas.
- GBP: Cable made some headway through the session opening around the 1.3550 and moving into the Tokyo session pushing through to the 1.3565 level, the market drifted a little through the morning session before again slowly rising into the grey hours to test the 1.3570’s. Topside offers into the 1.3600 areas remain strong with the market likely to see weak stops on a push through the 1.3620-30 area, whether the market has enough impetus to crash the 1.3660 level remains to be seen however, in that area the market is likely to be fairly strong and the highs from last year standing in the way to a return to the bottom of the range from the general election. Downside bids into the 1.3500 levels with weak stops on a move down through the level and weak congestion to the possibly stronger bids into the 1.3450 level and increasing on a move through.
- JPY: Opening around the 112.75 levels the early run through to mid-morning in Tokyo was limited with the market generally holding in a 5 pip range, little interest saw the market slowly rising to push beyond the 112.85 level and trigger minor stops on a test towards the 113.00 level into the grey hours. Topside offers weak through to a congested 113.20-60 levels with some weak stops likely in the area and stronger offers still on a move to the 113.90 level with stronger stops on a move through the 114.00 level. Downside bids limited but congestive through to the 112.00 level with weak stops on a move through the 111.80 level and the market open to further congestion on a dip to the 111.00 level and stronger bids not expected until the 110.50 areas.
- AUD: A gappy opening saw the market trading the 0.7860-70 areas before settling back to the closing levels for the fun into Tokyo, the market again tested higher in early Tokyo but was unable to push much beyond the highs, the release of the trade balance number and the market dropped off quickly to the 0.7855 level before holding briefly and slipping back to base along the 0.7845 levels through to the grey hours, Topside offers through the current highs and into the 79 cent levels with weak stops through the level and congestive offers then moving in up through the 0.7940-60 and really no let-up in those congestive offers. Downside bids light back through the 0.7800 areas with weak stops likely through the 0.7775 areas and exposing a test of the 0.7730-00 level.
Overnight News
AUD:
Big swing in Oz trade balance, imports increasing by 1% over a static export number
USD:
Bombshell book to publish early despite Trump’s blocking attempt
Trump seeks to open most US coastal waters to new drilling
JPY:
BoJ’s 2% inflation target unrealistic in 2018 Credit Suisse
CNY:
China stats bureau says final 2016 GDP at 74.36t Yuan
KRW:
- Korea accepts talks offer from S. Korea meeting to be held 9 Jan
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Monetary Base Y/Y Dec A 11.20% | P 13.20%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Dec A -0.60% | P -0.10%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (AUD) Nov A -0.63B | C 0.55B | P 0.11B | R -0.30B
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Retail Sales M/M Nov C 1.00% | P -1.20%
08:00Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF) Dec P 738B
09:10Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Retail PMI Dec P 52.4
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PPI M/M Nov C 0.30% | P 0.40%
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PPI Y/Y Nov C 2.50% | P 2.50%
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Dec (A) C 1.00% | P 0.90%
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Dec C 1.40% | P 1.50%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â International Merchandise Trade (CAD) Nov C -1.3B | P -1.5B
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Change in Employment Dec C 0.0K | P 79.5K
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Dec C 6.00% | P 5.90%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Change in Non-farm Payrolls Dec C 189K | P 228K
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Dec C 4.10% | P 4.10%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Hourly Earnings M/M Dec C 0.30% | P 0.20%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance Nov C -48.1B | P -48.7B
15:00Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Ivey PMI Dec C 62.2 | P 63
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services Composite Dec C 57.6 | P 57.4
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Factory Orders Nov C 1.40% | P -0.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
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Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A slow day overall with the Euro drifting into the Asian session testing through towards the 1.2005 areas before holding for a period around the 1.2010 levels before regaining the opening levels slowly, the move to the grey hours saw the market pushing at the 1.2020 level, early London moved in to push to the 1.2040 area with a set of uninspiring numbers from the Eurozone countries and holding in a range around the 1.2030 into mid-morning in London, the market eventually broke higher again with some fresh buying moving the market to above the 1.2060 level and running into some resistance and holding around the 1.2070 levels into the NYK session, jobless claims increased a little helping the Euro to test above the 1.2080 levels topping just below the 1.2090 areas and dropping back again and ranging quietly through to the close around the 1.2070 areas.
- GBP: A similar pattern for the Cable with a very quiet Asian session and the Cable holding for the most part in the 1.3505-15 levels before moving into the London session and pushing quickly through to the 1.3540 levels and slowing its ascent on a move through to the NYK session pushing the 1.3560 areas from that point on though the market remained in a tight range around the 1.3550 level to the close.
- JPY: Early trading saw the USDJPY moving up from the opening 112.50 levels and testing into the early morning in Tokyo to the 11275 areas and unable to move through the 112.80 area, the market dropped off the level and ranged around the 112.65 areas through to the grey hours, the market dipped back on early trading testing back to the opening levels and then ranging through the London session in a 15 pip range, NYK saw the market move higher through to the 112.85 levels and as with London it stopped dead and ranged tightly through to the close dipping back only to the 112.75 areas.
- AUD: A quiet Oz with the market slipping lower from the opening testing to the 0.7815 levels before pushing through to the grey hours recovering the opening levels, early grey hours buying saw the market pushed to the 0.7855 levels and like the other pairs the market ranged through to the NYK session tightly, the move into the NYK session saw the market drop back to the 0.7820’s before jumping higher as JPY weakness saw the AUDJPY cross rallying, the Oz again pushed through the 0.7850 level and struggled around the 0.7860 levels gaining slowly to the 0.7865 areas before running out of time.
Yesterday’s premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Dec (F) A 54 | C 54.2 | P 54.2
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Caixin PMI Services Dec A 53.9 | C 51.8 | P 51.9
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Nationwide House Price M/M Dec A 0.60% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Italy Services PMI Dec A 54.6 | C 54.7 | P 54.7
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Services PMI Dec (F) A 59.1 | C 59.4 | P 59.4
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Services PMI Dec (F) A 55.8 | C 55.8 | P 55.8
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services PMI Dec (F) A 56.6 | C 56.5 | P 56.5
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Mortgage Approvals Nov A 65.1K | C 64.1K | P 64.6K | R 64.9K
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Money Supply M4 M/M Nov A 0.10% | C 0.40% | P 0.60%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Services PMI Dec A 54.2 | C 54 | P 53.8
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Dec A -3.60% | P 30.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ADP Employment Change Dec A 250K | C 190K | P 190K | R 185K
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Product Price M/M Nov A 1.40% | C 0.80% | P 1.00% | R 1.10%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Raw Materials Price Index M/M Nov A 5.50% | C 4.00% | P 3.80%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (DEC 30) A 250K | C 244K | P 245K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â US Services PMI Dec (F) A 53.7 | C 52.4 | P 52.4
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A -206B | C -221B | P -112B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A -7.4M | C -5.2M | P -4.6M
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