Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.414 | EURUSD 1.2396 | AUDUSD 0.80247 | NZDUSD 0.7370 | USDCAD 1.23745 | USDCHF 0.94113 | GBPUSD 1.41396 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.24334 | 1.23713
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 109.772 | 109.332
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.41915 | 1.41088
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.94311 | 0.93798
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.80585 | 0.80059
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.23884 | 1.23468
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.73440 | 0.72932
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.16841 | 1.16595
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.87693 | 0.87557
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 136.138 | 135.584
For today
- EUR: Opening in Sydney the market slipped back to the 1.2375 areas moving into the Tokyo session however, once Tokyo moved in fully the market recovered steadily through the session slowing at the 1.2430 level for several hours before renewing the move higher into the grey hours testing the 1.2450 areas, Topside offers cleared all the way through the 1.2540 area and likely to be strong in the area now, chances of further commentary from ECB minor officials likely with the market likely to push quickly towards 1.2600 if the 1.2540-60 level is challenged during the day, so possibly US GDP and Durable goods likely to be a factor, any push above the 1.2600 level is likely to find some congestion however, expect possibly stronger profit taking moving into the market beyond that level, downside bids have to be suspect through to the 1.2360 area with minor congestion to slow the decent towards 1.2300 area, and possibly better short term bids in that area with the market then possibly weak and open to a stronger drop.
- GBP: After an initial dip into the weak market due to the Australian day bank holiday the Cable moved off the 1.4110 areas to push steadily hire over the course of the session with the market slowing into mid-morning in Tokyo around the 1.4190 levels, with the market moving into the grey hours testing higher again with a purpose it would seem. Topside is now open for a good distance with possible weak congestive offers into the 1.4300 levels and stronger just beyond and approaching the 1.4350 level, a break here will possibly see very few stops and the market having little trouble pushing for new highs. Downside bids into the 1.4100 level likely to be light with hopefully a period of consolidation to provide the market with time to readjust to the current levels, a break of the level though will likely see further strong selling and the market again opening to a decent move through the weak sentimental levels and the 1.4000 possible key to halting any major sell off.
- JPY: USDJPY initially saw a stronger USD filtering through, more likely to be end of week/Month USD buying through to the fix and the market testing the 109.75 levels before holding quietly for an hour or so, fix over and USD starts the slow push back to the 109.35 level and the move into the grey hours sees that selling increase through to the early London players, Topside offers light through the 109.80-110.00 level with weak stops likely on a push through the 110.20 areas and weak offers likely to continue through the 110.50 levels, a push to the 110.80-111.00 will likely see stronger offers appearing and beyond weak stops and the 112.00 levels well within reach of a sharp move, downside bids into the 109.00 area likely to be weaker with stops unlikely to make an appearance having been cleared yesterday, stronger bids then start to appear around the 108.50 levels and through to the 108.00 level with stops possible behind that level and a large downside risk.
- AUD: Much debated Australian day and the market limited for the Oz however, given that the early lows of 0.8005 were traded once and then the market started a slow and steady climb through the session to the 0.8055 level holding quietly through the grey hours before moving again as the market pushed towards the London session. Topside offers light through 81 cent however, increasing on move through towards the 0.8120-30 levels which for the moment seems key to gaining any further, a push through could see some limited offers into the 0.8150 areas and the market then open to the challenge of pushing the 82 cent area, downside bids light through to the 0.7980 areas and weak stops possibly appearing and limited congestion then through to the 0.7940 levels and possibly more of a grind than a quick move.
Overnight News
USD:
Trump says USD to strengthen, Mnuchin says taken out of context
EUR:
ECB Chief chides Mnuchin over USD comment
EU wants additional data, copyright protection rules in Brexit deal
French debt is a time bomb Euronext head Boujnah says
JPY:
FinMin Aso: Important to maintain trust in Japan’s fiscal policy
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â National CPI Core Y/Y Dec A 0.90% | C 0.90% | P 0.90%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Jan A 0.70% | C 0.80% | P 0.80%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Corporate Service Price Y/Y Dec A 0.80% | C 0.80% | P 0.80%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â BOJ Minutes
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone M3 Money Supply Y/Y Dec C 4.90% | P 4.90%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Index of Services 3M/3M Nov C 0.40% | P 0.30%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q4 (A) C 0.40% | P 0.40%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Dec C 1.90% | P 2.10%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core – Trimmed Y/Y Dec P 1.80%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core – Common Y/Y Dec P 1.50%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core – Median Y/Y Dec P 1.90%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Annualized Q/Q Q4 (A) C 3.00% | P 3.20%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Price Index Q4 (A) C 2.30% | P 2.10%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Durable Goods Orders Dec (P) C 0.90% | P 1.30%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Durables Ex Transportation Dec (P) C 0.60% | P -0.10%
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Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A quiet range through the Asian session compared with the day, with the market opening around the 1.2400 level and early Tokyo pushing the market to the 1.2415 areas initially before ranging quietly deeper into the session and then lifting to the 1.2440 levels before holding through to the opening of the London session, the market pushed through the resistance on the release of German numbers with consumer confidence gaining a little while IFO were mixed, and some strong EURGBP buying moving through the market, the move through to the NYK session was quiet with comments from Trump quickly denied by Mnuchin as being out of context on USD strength, Draghi then entered the market with comments about Mnuchin violating agreements among nations against starting currency wars not mentioning him by name but quoting the agreement in Washington in October, this besides the fact that every other underling in the ECB has been attempting to talk the Euro lower over the past month however, this had the Euro quickly challenging the 1.2400 levels either as a consequence of Draghi metaphorically taking his foot off the break to give the Euro a boost or the USD sliding against, well the Euro really and nothing else the market eventually bounced off the 1.2365 levels before moving through the balance of the session around the 1.2400 levels through to the close.
- GBP: Cable sew a little weakness through into the Tokyo session slipping from the opening around the 1.4240 areas to test through the 1.4220 areas in early trading before holding through for a couple of hours and starting a steady rally through to the grey hours pushing beyond the 1.4300 levels, grey hours extended the highs through to just below 1.4330 and early London selling quickly back into the open pushing it back to the 1.4280 area and slipping steadily lower into the official opening, the market eventually held the 1.4240 level and traded along the 1.4250 level through into the NYK session, the report on Trumps comments sent the markets to the highs pushing through the 1.4340 level only for Mnuchin to deny the comments and the market turn lower, Draghi put his pennies worth in and the rest is history, a step to far and weak longs were quickly reacting and triggering stronger selling with the market pausing once at 1.4200 area and then again around the next sentimental level to eventually push through the 1.4100 and a bounce reminiscent of a ball on a water logged pitch, the market recovered over the next couple of hours to the 1.4170 areas however, one assumes the interest in Cable had evaporated completely in either direction and the market drifting to a close 2 big figures from its highs.
- JPY: USDJPY made early gains pushing towards the 109.50 level and then stalling and dropping all the way back with USD selling sending the market into mid session testing the 109.00 level and eventually pushing through as the market moved towards the grey hours, the market dipped to the 108.75 levels before finding the London market willing to buy and the market back above the 109.00 level albeit briefly, the market continued to move around the figure area with some choppy movement before settling down in the run to NYK, early sellers saw the comments from Trump the denial by Mnuchin and then Draghi comments seeing EURJPY dominating the market and the USDJPY making gains again to push into the later part of the session to the 109.65 areas before dropping back and then drifting to the close.
- AUD: While some will call the day’s events as a USD move the fact that most currencies were worse off against the USD would suggest otherwise, Oz moved from the lows just after the opening to rise through to the 81 cent on cross trading for the most part the move through into the grey hours saw early day traders taking the market through towards the 0.8120 level before dropping back quickly into the London opening and drifting down from the 0.8085 level through to 0.8070 the market based along that line into the NYK session and the move higher was only to the 81 cent level before dropping back to the 0.8070 areas and continuing in that fashion through to late in the session and the Oz dropped quickly back testing into the 0.8010 level as the market skewed over the comments. Recovering only marginally into the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Q/Q Q4 A 0.10% | C 0.40% | P 0.50%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Q4 A 1.60% | C 1.90% | P 1.90%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GfK Consumer Confidence Feb A 11 | C 10.8 | P 10.8
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO Business Climate Jan A 117.6 | C 117 | P 117.2
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO Expectations Jan A 108.4 | C 109.2 | P 109.5 | R 109.4
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO Current Assessment Jan A 127.7 | C 125.3 | P 125.4 | R 125.5
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BBA Loans for House Purchase Dec A 36.1K | C 39.7K | P 39.5K | R 39.0K
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CBI Reported Sales Jan A 12 | C 13 | P 20
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Rate Decision A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Press Conference
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (JAN 20) A 233K | C 236K | P 220K | R 216K
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Nov A 0.20% | C 0.80% | P 1.50% | R 1.60%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M Nov A 1.60% | C 0.90% | P 0.80%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Home Sales Dec A 625K | C 676K | P 733K | R 689K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Leading Index Dec A 0.60% | C 0.50% | P 0.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A -288B | C -277B | P -183B
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