Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 106.934 | EURUSD 1.23178 | AUDUSD 0.7854 | NZDUSD 0.73071 | USDCAD 1.2685 | USDCHF 0.93803 | GBPUSD 1.39669 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.23430 | 1.23088
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 107.090 | 106.785
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.39748 | 1.3953
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.93888 | 0.93631
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.78686 | 0.7840
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.26891 | 1.26685
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.73051 | 0.72744
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.15599 | 1.15486
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88344 | 0.88153
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 132.078 | 131.692
For today
- EUR: Opening quietly the market dipped to the 1.2310 level before finding support from Draghi comments of interest and the Euro rising through to the 1.2335 level with a slow rise eventually through to the 1.2340 areas before holding for a short period around the level, the market then dropped back to hold quietly around the 1.2325 areas through to the close. Topside offers light through to the 1.2360 levels with congestive offers appearing, a move beyond will likely find some light offers however, the test through to the 1.2400 level is likely with weak stops on a move through the 1.2420 levels with congestion immediately filling in the gap through to the 1.2460 areas, push through this area is likely to meet stronger offers on the test towards the 1.2500 levels and through the level seeing various strengths of offers then through to recent highs into the 1.2550 level. Downside bids a little more suspect with the mutual support for USD and Euro from the FED and Draghi possibly not fooling anyone, bids light through the 1.2300 levels and congestion limited until the 1.2250 areas where the market starts to see better support, a push to the 1.2200 areas will likely see stronger bids still and only a break through the 1.2180 areas will see stops appearing and the market open to a test through to the 1.2120 level with stronger bids likely to appear into the area.
- GBP: Cable drift from the opening with the market holding tightly around the 1.3970 levels unable to push beyond the 1.3980 level and after several hours drifting through to hold the 1.3955 lows into the grey hours, the market remains in a consolidation period and the market through to the 1.3850 levels likely to be gradual and increasing bids through the level with strong bids into the 1.3835 area. Topside offers through the 1.4050 level and increasing on any test above the 1.4070 level with strong offers into the 1.4100 area and continuing through to 1.4150 and the highs of last month.
- JPY: A little choppy but limited in range with the market rising in early trading through to the 107.10 areas before dropping away quickly into the Tokyo fix to eventually test to the 106.80, while the market continued to fluctuate with little impetus the ranged slowly declined and pushed into the grey hours not too far from the opening levels. Downside bids likely through the 106.00 level and increasing on any move towards the 105.50 areas with stops likely through the level and the 105.00 level likely to see light option barriers with the market opening for another test through to the 104.50 areas before finding sufficient bids to slow the decent, topside offers light through to the 107.00 levels with a move above the 107.40 likely to be a struggle but opening the possibility for another test towards the stronger 108.00 areas.
- AUD: Early rise as USD weakened to test towards the 0.7870 level before eventually giving ground after several hours to fall back to the 0.7840 levels in weak trading and limited data and news, the market rose slightly into the grey hours with a slow push towards 0.7850 area. Topside offers light through to the 0.7870 area with some limited offers continuing through the 79 cent areas, a move through the level could see stronger offers to the 0.7930 levels with weak stops opening a test through to the stronger offers above 0.7980 and likely to increase into the 80 cent levels, downside bids light back down to the 0.7800-0.7770 areas with stronger bids through the figure level and likely to see those bids increasing on any attempt to get at stops through the 0.7740 areas and then bids quickly moving in around 77 cents.
Overnight News
USD:
Feds Quarles raises hope for faster, sustained US growth pace
Quarles: optimistic on US economic outlook, some upside risks
Quarles: real possibility economy could shift to higher growth
Quarles: says FED will be very focused on meeting dual mandate
Quarles says further gradual rate hikes appropriate
Quarles: Still to be seen if faster growth will spur inflation
Quarles: Fiscal policy to give growth considerable momentum
Quarles: Inflation to rise to 2% as transitory headwinds fade
Quarles: Deficit spending can have negative long run effects
Hedge funds cut bearish treasuries bets by most in several months
Mnuchin reiterates long term a strong USD is good for US
Mnuchin: concerned rest of world not monitoring crypto enough
Mnuchin: says don’t think you can call bitcoin a currency
Mnuchin: A little market correction was probably a good thing
Mnuchin: We don’t set policy to impact the USD
Mnuchin: says he spends about half his time on sanctions work
Mnuchin: US will need to address national debt over time
Mnuchin: Says treasury’s top focus is implementation of tax law
USD rate breakdown exposes foreign exchange mystery WSJ
EUR:
Draghi focuses on ECB stimulus as Latvia side-lined in Brussels
Italian election 2018: Fear, Loathing and the rise of the right UKT
The stability of our political system is at stake, Germany’s CDU General Secretary Spiegel
Draghi says there is no currency war
Draghi says ECB guidance on interest rates very important
JPY:
Shrinking to survive: Japan’s banks face a quiet crisis Nikkei
NZD:
New Zealand unexpectedly posted trade deficit in January
CNY:
PBoC may raise OMO rates in Mar on Fed hikes Sec. Journal
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance Jan A -566M | C -2710M | P 640M | R 596M
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone M3 Money Supply Y/Y Jan C 4.60% | P 4.60%
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Business Climate Indicator Feb C 1.47 | P 1.54
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Economic Confidence Feb C 114 | P 114.7
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Confidence Feb C 8 | P 8.8
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services Confidence Feb C 16.3 | P 16.7
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Consumer Confidence Feb (F) C 0.1 | P 0.1
13:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M Feb (P) C 0.50% | P -0.70%
13:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y Feb (P) C 1.50% | P 1.60%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Fed Powell’s Congressional Testimony
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Advance Goods Trade Balance Jan C -72.3B | P -72.3B
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Inventories M/M Jan (P) C 0.30% | P 0.40%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Durable Goods Orders Jan (P) C -2.50% | P 2.80%
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index M/M Dec C 0.40% | P 0.40%
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Dec C 6.30% | P 6.40%
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Confidence Index Feb C 126 | P 125.4
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Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Opening around the 1.2295 areas early trading saw the market slip slightly lower and test the 1.2280 area, from the lows the market moved steadily higher through the session testing into mid-session to the 1.2320 level before holding through to the grey hours before renewing the move an struggling into the 1.2330 areas and holding through to early morning in London before rising through to test above the 1.2350 levels briefly touching around the 1.2355 level before starting a slow and steady decline through to press through the lows before finding sufficient bids, the market eventually started to rise once London had closed and managed to crawl back above the 1.2300 levels from the 1.2280 lows to settle just below the 1.2320 areas on a lacklustre day.
- GBP: Not so different than the Euro with the highs made in early London after a steady rally through the Asian session from the opening 1.3970 areas level quietly moving through to early morning in Tokyo before starting a slow move through the 1.4000 levels, the move into the grey hours saw the market again heading higher and the push into the later part of the morning in London saw the market pressing to the 1.4070 levels before holding quietly through into the NYK session, a little dip lower saw the Cable falling back sharply after the drift to the 1.4030 level and the market had quickly lost a full cent on its move to the 1.3930 level and the lows of the day, the run to the close saw the market rising and holding through to the close just short of the opening level.
- JPY: Pre market saw the market rise to the 107.15 level before dropping back and the official opening saw the market very little different for the opening with the market again testing through in early trading towards that level however, the pre market buyers probably panicked a little on the failure to push through the level and steady selling saw the market drop back quickly to test a little through the 106.50 areas before bouncing and rising back to the 106.70 levels into the grey hours, the move through to the London opening saw the market dipp again testing through to the 106.40 level before bouncing off the level and pushing quickly back to the 106.60 areas and holding quietly through to the NYK session, the move into NYK saw the market rising steadily through to the 106.80 level and the market then struggled through the NYK session through to the opening levels and then struggling through to the close around the 107.00 area.
- AUD: Opening unchanged from Friday the Oz moved quietly into the Tokyo session and then rose from the 0.7830 areas through to 0.7870 before meeting any resistance to the steady move and holding then through to the grey hours in quiet trading, the move into the grey hours the market moved again to the 0.7880 level and the move into the London session saw the market tested to the 0.7890 areas holding for a short period before dropping back to the 0.7870 levels in mid-morning trading, the move into the NYK session saw the Oz losing ground and slipping back through to test through the early lows, but only just and then holding around the 0.7840 level and rising to a close just above the 0.7850 levels.
Yesterday’s premiership results
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BBA Loans for House Purchase Jan A 40.1K | C 37.2K | P 36.1K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Home Sales Jan A 593K | C 646K | P 625K | R 643K
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