Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 107.331 | EURUSD 1.2233 | AUDUSD 0.77895 | NZDUSD 0.72458 | USDCAD 1.27751 | USDCHF 0.9390 | GBPUSD 1.39099 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.22388 | 1.22152
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 107.527 | 107.053
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.39146 | 1.38898
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.94049 | 0.93863
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.77989 | 0.77811
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.27789 | 1.2766
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72404 | 0.72206
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.14926 | 1.14854
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.87993 | 0.87917
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 131.518 | 130.894
For today
- EUR: A very quiet session with volumes subdued, opening around the 1.2235 level the market held the levels deep into the Tokyo session before dipping through towards the 1.2215 and holding around 1.2220 in a long run to the grey hours, Downside bids into the 1.2200 areas with weak stops on a strong move through 1.2180 levels opening up a move through a weak sentimental 1.2150 areas and limited bids then appearing through the 1.2120 level possibly increasing on any move for the 1.2100 levels. Topside offers congestive through the 1.2250 areas with stronger offers on a move to the 1.2280 level and through into the 1.2300 level, weak stop are likely beyond with stronger offers then into the 1.2340-60 areas.
- GBP: Cable opened around the 1.3910 levels and ranged quietly into the Tokyo session before drifting through the figure level to test to the 1.3890 level before holding around the 1.3900 level and holding quietly through to the grey hours. Downside bids congestive with stronger bids on a move into the 1.3850 levels with some weak stops likely only if the market can dip through the 1.3840 with slightly stronger bids into that area with limited bids through 1.3800 and the market only increasing as the market approaches 1.3750. Topside offer light through to the 1.4000 level with stronger offers appearing above the level and increasing into the 1.4050 area, any push beyond will attract some further selling into any rise towards the 1.4100.
- JPY: Early trading saw the market moving into the Tokyo session testing above the 107.50 levels before dropping quickly back into the fixing, the market tested to the 107.10 levels however, the market did attempt a limited recovery testing through to the 107.35 opening levels before drifting through the session to the 107.11 levels into the grey hours, Topside weak offers through to the 107.80 level a little bit more resistance through to the 108.00 levels with stops likely to appear just beyond the level and the market then opening up to a move through 108.50 before finding stronger offers beginning to appear and increasing into the 109.00 levels. Downside bids light through the current lower with some stronger bids on a move through the 106.00 level and likely to increase on any attempt to push through to the 105.50 areas, strong stops likely on a push through the level and the market opening then to a deeper potential downside with limited bids into the 105.00-104.80 before significant space and sentimental levels only through to the 103.50 areas.
- AUD: Very quiet session for the Oz dipping to the 0.7780 in early Tokyo trading the market then based along the 0.7785 level through the session ranging around the 0.7790 levels before starting a rise late into the session moving into the grey hours pushing towards the 78 cent levels. Downside bids into the 0.7780 levels still remain in play with very little in the way of stops beyond that level until the market tests below 0.7760 and through the sentimental level, once through the 0.7740 the market will likely see some stops and the market then testing into stronger congestive bids through to the 77 cent level and that congestion likely to continue for several big figures as the market dips into the ranges of Jan-Feb. Topside offers through to the 79 cent level are likely to be light with the market then likely to increase into the 0.7950 levels with very little in the way of stops possibly until that point, stronger offers then continue around the 80 cent level.
Overnight News
NZD:
RBNZ can keep ash rate at record low until 2019 NZIER
CAD:
Canada cuts issuance plans as maturities and deficit shrink
GBP:
Boris Johnson raises the prospect of hard border in Ireland in leaked letter
Tory rebellion grows in strength as May clings to Brexit vision
UK Confidence subdued as Brexit keeps outlook under cloud
MXN:
Mexican trade deficit may be warning for Peso
CNY:
China Feb. manufacturing PMI at 50.3 est. 51.1
USD:
US imposes steep duties on China aluminium foil in dumping case
JPY:
BoJ cuts purchases of Bonds due in more than 25 years by 10B Yen
Japanese are selling US bonds over budget, dollar fears
ZAR:
The time for reconciliation is over S. Africa votes to confiscate white owned land SABC news
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Trade Y/Y Jan A 1.60% | C 2.50% | P 3.60%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Jan (P) A -6.60% | C -4.20% | P 2.90%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ANZ Business Confidence Feb A -19.0 | P -37.8
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GfK Consumer Confidence Feb A -10 | C -10 | P -9
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Feb A -0.80% | C -0.60% | P -0.50%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI Feb A 50.3 | C 51.2 | P 51.3
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Non-manufacturing PMI Feb A 54.4 | C 55 | P 55.3
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Y/Y Jan A -13.20% | C -4.70% | P -2.10%
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GfK Consumer Confidence Mar C 10.9 | P 11
07:45Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â French GDP Q/Q Q4 (P) C 0.60% | P 0.60%
07:45Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â French GDP Y/Y Q4 (P) C 2.40% | P 2.40%
08:00Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â KOF Leading Indicator Feb C 106 | P 106.9
08:55Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Change Feb C -17K | P -25K
08:55Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Rate Feb C 5.40% | P 5.40%
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Feb C 1.20% | P 1.30%
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Feb (A) C 1.00% | P 1.00%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Product Price M/M Jan P -0.10%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Raw Materials Price Index M/M Jan P -0.90%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Annualized Q/Q Q4 (S) C 2.50% | P 2.60%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Price Index Q4 (S) C 2.40% | P 2.40%
14:45Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Chicago PMI Feb C 64.6 | P 65.7
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Pending Home Sales M/M Jan C 0.50% | P 0.50%
15:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P -1.6M
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Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A quiet range through the Asian session with the market rising from the 1.2315 levels to test weakly above the 1.2340 before holding quietly through into the grey hours, early London again tested the topside pushing through the 1.2345 areas before starting a steady slip lower through to the NYK session European numbers were lightly better than expected overall and had little impact as USD buyers moved through the session in NYK falling away in an ever decreasing drop with comments from Powell to Congress and better economics going forward, the Euro stopped its drop holding the 1.2220 levels with any movement higher limited into the 1.2250 levels before closing just above the lows.
- GBP: Cable was no different to the Euro with the USD the moving force for the most part with the Cable barely moving on its move through to the grey hours, ranging around the 1.3965 areas, the move into the grey hour saw the market lifting slowly through towards the 1.3995 level in a slow steady move before drifting through into the NYK session pushing through the 1.3950 levels,, the decline through the level was a lot quieter and took longer to test to the 1.3860 levels before bouncing off the level and testing to the 1.3900 levels before pausing, the market moved higher once London closed and traded through to the 1.3940 level before running out of steam and drifting back through to the close holding just above the figure level.
- JPY: USDJPY struggled through the Asian session and ranged through trading around the opening levels through into the London session, lows were made early in Tokyo pushing slightly through the 106.80 levels and eventually pushing through into London to test just above the 107.10 areas before ranging then through to NYK around the 107 level. Powell’s report to the Senate saw the USD rising and the USDJPY quickly pushed through the 107.50 levels and tested to the 107.70 areas before drifting a little lower as the volumes declined and the market slipped through to base around the 107.30 area to the close.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7855 levels the market tested through in early trading to push towards the 0.7870 levels before drifting back off and holding around the 0.7850 areas for the move into the grey hours, the market then edged a little lower into the London session running quietly along the 0.7840 areas with minor gyrations around the Powell commentary before dipping through to the 0.7795 and then ranging for a period around the figure before drifting off to the close pressing towards the 0.7780 levels.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance Jan A -566M | C -2710M | P 640M | R 596M
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone M3 Money Supply Y/Y Jan A 4.60% | C 4.60% | P 4.60%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Business Climate Indicator Feb A 1.48 | C 1.47 | P 1.54 | R 1.56
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Economic Confidence Feb A 114.1 | C 114 | P 114.7 | R 114.9
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Confidence Feb A 8 | C 8 | P 8.8 | R 9
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services Confidence Feb A 17.5 | C 16.3 | P 16.7 | R 16.8
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Consumer Confidence Feb (F) A 0.1 | C 0.1 | P 0.1 | R 1.4
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M Feb (P) A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P -0.70%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y Feb (P) A 1.40% | C 1.50% | P 1.60%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Fed Powell’s Congressional Testimony
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Advance Goods Trade Balance Jan A -74.40B | C -72.3B | P -72.3B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Inventories M/M Jan (P) A 0.70% | C 0.30% | P 0.40% | R 0.60%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Durable Goods Orders Jan (P) A -3.70% | C -2.50% | P 2.80%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Durable Goods Ex-Transport Jan (P) A -0.30% | C 0.40% | P 0.70%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index M/M Dec A 0.30% | C 0.40% | P 0.40% | R 0.50%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Dec A 6.30% | C 6.30% | P 6.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Confidence Index Feb A 130.8 | C 126 | P 125.4
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