Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 106.243 | EURUSD 1.2267 | AUDUSD 0.77552 | NZDUSD 0.7231 | USDCAD 1.28358 | USDCHF 0.94181 | GBPUSD 1.37759 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.22877 | 1.2262
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 106.291 | 105.757
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.37936 | 1.37666
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.94241 | 0.93874
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.77735 | 0.77507
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.28409 | 1.28201
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72765 | 0.72517
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.15607 | 1.15294
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.89104 | 0.89012
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 130.438 | 129.887
For today
- EUR: holding around the previous days highs the Euro slowly moved off the 1.2260 level lows to push slowing through the 1.2285 area with volumes reasonable for a slow session, the Kuroda comments saw some limited EURJPY cross selling through the end of the session and into the grey hours to test back to the opening levels, Topside offers into the 1.2300 level with congestion likely to continue through to the 1.2360 levels before weak stops appear however, stronger offers then increase the closer the market moves to the 1.2400 areas with that congestion likely to sporadic but continual through to the 1.2460 level, weak stops on a move through the level with stronger offers then reappearing quickly for any attempt through the 1.2500 level, downside bids light through to the 1.2200 areas with congestive bids likely to continue through to the 1.2160 areas, weak stops could appear on a breach of the 1.2150 level and the downside quickly opening to the 1.2120-00 level and then limited congestion through onto the 1.20 handle.
- GBP: Cable made some slow gains through into the Tokyo session moving off the 1.3765 levels to test to the 1.3795 areas; the range remained tight through to the grey hours, with the market testing above the 1.3790 on three separate occasions before moving into the grey hours slipping to the opening levels. Topside offers light through the 1.3800 levels with weak stops likely behind the figure area and the market likely to find only token offers on a push through the 1.3850 areas, limited congestion into the 1.3900 level will possibly see stronger offers moving into the market on a breach of the level with the market likely to continue with stronger resistance appearing the closer the market moves to the 1.4000 level, however, May’s speech may have a strong effect on the market, Downside bids through to the 1.3700 areas likely to be a little weak and possibly subjective to May’s speech, any weakness is likely to be pounced on and those bids quickly disappearing and opening the market to a deeper move to the 1.3600 levels and possibly stronger support not rematerializing until deep onto the 1.3400 level and into the ranges from the end of 2017 and into early 2018.
- JPY: USDJPY made early gains pushing through to the 106.30 areas from the opening 106.10 area, however, once those early buyers melted away the market drifted steadily to the 106.00 level with the market then basing for several hours into that area and slipping lightly through, the market saw a limited recovery to the opening levels however, the Kuroda commentary put paid to the recover and the market dropped quickly back to the 105.70 levels for the move into the grey hours, Topside offers likely to be building above the 106.70 levels with light offers through to that level with BoJ now looking for some form of exit the topside is likely to hold more offers on any push above the 107.20 areas and quickly absorbing the weak stops through the level with those offers then becoming more congestive through to the 107.50 level and strong resting offers likely from that point onwards, downside bids into the 105.50 level will likely see stronger stops on a move through the level and the market facing limited bids into the 105.00 areas with stops through the 104.80 level firmly pushing the market into the end of 2016 ranges.
- AUD: A singularly quiet day for the Oz with the market moving quietly in a 20 pip range for the most part reacting very little to outside influences through the session, the early Tokyo morning saw the highs set around the 0.7775 areas before s slow drift through to 0.7750 to set the lows from those highs, light topside offers through the 0.7780 areas an into the 0.7820 level before weak stops appear with a test above limited with congestive offers through the 0.7840-60 areas and possibly stronger offers then appearing around the 79 cent level where the market is still building from this weeks move lower. Downside bids mostly congestive from the 0.7650 level onwards with particular strength around the sentimental 50 and 00 areas, however, a strong push could see some weakness creeping into the market especially if it makes a test below 76 cent.
Overnight News
EUR/USD:
Juncker says EU will react firmly to Trumps tariffs
CAD/USD:
Canada to fire back if hit with US steel and aluminium tariffs
GBP:
UK’s May said to face cabinet split ahead of Key Brexit speech
USD:
US counterintelligence officials at the FBI are scrutinizing one of Ivanka Trump’s international business deal
White house preparing to nominate Richard Clarida as Fed’s No 2 official
RUB:
Putin claims Russia has developed nuclear weapons invulnerable to US missile defences
JPY:
Kuroda: There could be policy change before 2% is achieved
Kuroda: But BoJ may also keep rates unchanged even if CPI reaches 2%
Kuroda: Not saying that policy will definitely remain unchanged
Kuroda: BoJ will talk exit with market when time comes
Kuroda: Chances are high that will hit target around 2019
Kuroda: Inappropriate to discuss details of exit now
Kuroda: BoJ’s aim is prices, but we don’t ignore employment
Kuroda: BoJ should’ve implemented bolder, earlier QE in the past
USDJPY lower after the comment with Futures following
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M Jan A 0.20% | P -9.60% | R -9.50%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Jobless Rate Jan A 2.40% | C 2.80% | P 2.80%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Feb A 0.90% | C 0.80% | P 0.70%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Monetary Base Y/Y Feb A 9.40% | C 9.20% | P 9.70%
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Retail Sales M/M Jan C 0.70% | P -1.90%
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Import Price Index M/M Jan C 0.40% | P 0.30%
08:15 Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â May’s speech
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction PMI Feb C 50.5 | P 50.2
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PPI M/M Jan C 0.40% | P 0.20%
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PPI Y/Y Jan C 1.60% | P 2.20%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP M/M Dec C 0.10% | P 0.40%
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â U. of Mich. Sentiment Feb (F) C 99.5 | P 99.9
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Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A quiet start to the day which saw the Asian session drifting a little from the opening and then slowly recover through to the 1.2195 levels from the 1.2185 lows, and holding in that range through to the grey hours, the early Europeans took the market towards the 1.2215 level before the London market dropped it back again, the market drifted lower through the early London session testing back as the PMI numbers hit with the big three showing losses apart from the German number, of course Eurozone manufacturing PMI amazingly slightly stronger than expected however, the market continued to drift through into the NYK session testing through to the 1.2155 area before finding some support from very little initially with the market again pushing back through the 1.2220 levels before holding quietly however, comments from Juncker telling the world that EU will react firmly to the tariffs imposed in the US the USD started to fall back, allowing the Euro to push quickly through the 1.2250 level and stalling only as it approached the 1.2270 areas and the close, while the market reacted with a weaker USD the possibility of trade war with China and the Euro would suggest this correction however, the bigger picture is a little more clouded with Brexit as well for the EU.
- GBP: A choppy session overall for the GBP, with the Cable drifting a little from the opening levels testing through to the 1.3745 levels before regaining some of its composure, the move into the grey hours with the market pushing through to the 1.3770 levels before chopping around the 1.3745-70 areas into early morning, mixed results in PMI numbers saw the market in GBP dip through to the 1.3730 areas before holding and pushing back to the 1.3750 for the move into the NYK session and a small bounce up to the 1.3780 areas before dipping back on the weaker US manufacturing number to test through to the 1.3715 areas and basing until late into the session and rising quickly on the Juncker comments testing through the highs to hold around the 1.3780 levels through to the close.
- JPY: USDJPY was very quiet through the whole day with the market opening around the 106.75 levels and slowly pushing off the early 106.60 lows to holding the 106.80-85 areas into the grey hours, the move into London saw very little movement and the market slipped back to the 106.70 areas into the NYK session before rallying through to push the 107.20 level, the limited manufacturing numbers and the comments from Juncker saw the market steadily drop back to test through the 106.25 areas touching below the 106.20 level to make the low.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7755 levels the market made slight gains into the Tokyo session trading through the 0.7765 areas before dropping back quickly with Private expenditure numbers coming massively under the expected levels and dropping to the 0.7740 levels before slowing its decent however, the decent continued falling and drifted through to the 0.7720 areas before holding, the market recovered to centre around the 0.7730 areas through into the grey hours and after an initial push to the 0.7740 levels the London session saw the market dip back to the 0.7710 level testing the support again before pushing through to the 0.7735 areas for the move into the NYK session, the market then moved up in stages testing to the opening levels and failing the level repeatedly with some the range for the day tested at either side, the market moved through to the 0.7760 levels into the final hours, but unable to push through the highs around 0.7770 held around 0.7760 into the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Terms of Trade Index Q/Q Q4 A -0.20% | C 0.50% | P 0.70% | R 1.30%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Capital Spending Q4 A 4.30% | C 3.00% | P 4.20%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Private Capital Expenditure Q4 A -0.20% | C 1.00% | P 1.00% | R 1.90%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Feb (F) A 54.1 | C 54 | P 54
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Caixin PMI Manufacturing Feb A 51.6 | C 51.3 | P 51.5
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Confidence Index Feb A 44.3 | C 44.8 | P 44.7
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q4 A 0.60% | C 0.50% | P 0.60% | R 0.70%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Y/Y Q4 A 1.90% | C 1.70% | P 1.20%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Y/Y Jan A -1.40% | C 1.10% | P 0.60% | R 0.70%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Feb A 65.5 | C 64.1 | P 65.3
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Italy Manufacturing PMI Feb A 56.8 | C 58 | P 59
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Manufacturing PMI Feb (F) A 55.9 | C 56.1 | P 56.1
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Manufacturing PMI Feb (F) A 60.6 | C 60.3 | P 60.3
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Feb (F) A 58.6 | C 58.5 | P 58.5
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Mortgage Approvals Jan A 67K | C 62K | P 61K | R 62K
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â M4 Money Supply M/M Jan A 1.50% | C 0.40% | P -0.60%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Feb A 55.2 | C 55 | P 55.3
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Unemployment Rate Jan A 8.60% | C 8.60% | P 8.70% | R 8.60%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Current Account Balance (CAD) Q4 A -16.4B | C -17.8B | P -19.3B | R -18.6B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Personal Income Jan A 0.40% | C 0.30% | P 0.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Personal Spending Jan A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Deflator M/M Jan A 0.40% | C 0.40% | P 0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Deflator Y/Y Jan A 1.70% | C 1.70% | P 1.70%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core M/M Jan A 0.30% | C 0.30% | P 0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core Y/Y Jan A 1.50% | C 1.50% | P 1.50%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (24 FEB) A 210K | C 226K | P 222K | R 220K
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI Feb A 55.6 | P 55.9
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â US Manufacturing PMI Feb (F) A 55.3 | C 55.8 | P 55.9
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction Spending M/M Jan A 0.00% | C 0.20% | P 0.70% | R 0.80%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Manufacturing Feb A 60.8 | C 58.7 | P 59.1
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Prices Paid Feb A 74.2 | C 70 | P 72.7
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A -78B | C -71B | P -124B
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