Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 106.201 | EURUSD 1.23361 | AUDUSD 0.77657 | NZDUSD 0.72223 | USDCAD 1.29644 | USDCHF 0.93987 | GBPUSD 1.38483 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.23634 | 1.23312
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 106.462 | 106.161
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.38631 | 1.38367
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.94033 | 0.9386
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.77926 | 0.77609
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29873 | 1.29625
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72460 | 0.72222
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.16046 | 1.15933
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.89218 | 0.89053
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 131.552 | 130.944
For today
- EUR: Another fruitless NAFTA meeting saw less movement forward than previously and imminent break out of trade wars, one has to say though that steel vs. Levi jeans is rather risible however, the import is possibly more the issue, Euro’s moved into the Tokyo session moving slowly through the 1.2350 levels but failing to push to the highs from yesterday drifted slowly back through the 1.2350 areas to move into the grey hours holding around the 1.2340 level and only just above the opening levels, the market continues to ponder the weakness of the USD with several points being put forward whether artificially or as a direct result of Trump being president. Topside offers through the 1.2370 levels and into the 1.2400 level likely to be a little stronger than previously and congestion likely to continue through the level limited weak stops through the 1.2420 areas with congestion likely to continue through to the 1.2500 areas, topside stops are not likely to appear until the market grinds through the topside offers an pushing through the 1.2560 area the final resistance point with the market possibly quickly rising to the 1.2600 level, downside bids congested through to the 1.2300 level with some stubborn bids but with weak stops through the 1.2260 level any congestive bids are likely to be swept away quickly to expose the stronger 1.2200 areas.
- GBP: rising from the opening the market moved into the 1.3860 areas before finding sufficient offers to turn the market and the market drifted through the Tokyo session to push to the 1.3835 areas and hold through to the grey hours in light trading, Topside offers through the 1.3880 level for the moment dominate the topside with any push through the 1.3900 level likely to be a struggle, weak stops possibly soaked up by congestive offers through the level with particular stronger offers through the 1.3950 levels and increasing further into the 1.400-0 areas. Downside bids light through to the 1.3750 areas with bids increasing on any push towards the 1.3700 level and downside stops quickly appearing on a move through and the market opening around the 1.3600 areas.
- JPY: Another quiet session for the USDJPY with the market opening around the 106.20 areas and slowly rising through into the Tokyo session to push through to the 106.40 level, the move into the mid Tokyo session saw the market push towards the 106.50 level but faded almost as soon as it made the move and the market held quietly for an hour or so before slowly drifting back towards the opening levels, Topside offers through the 106.50 however, congestive offers are likely to slow any move through to the 107.00 areas with weak stops on a move through the level likely to see the market opening to a limited rise to the 107.50 areas with congestion through to 107.80 and stronger offers, downside bids light back through the 106.00 levels with the market weak through to the 105.40-20 level and stronger bids into those areas, a break through the 105 level will likely see stops appearing through the 104.80 level and the market then open to a larger move lower with sentimental levels dominating the downside with stronger technical bids moving in around the 103.50 areas.
- AUD: Quiet move into the Tokyo session with the market rising off the 0.7760 level lows to test towards the 0.7775 area, the market rose quickly as the retail sales numbers while short of estimates looked better than the previous months number and the market pushed through the 0.7780 level lightly before dipping back and rising again slowly through to the 0.7790 levels, the market then held quietly through awaiting the main event and to be honest there was nothing to wait for with the market receiving the same commentary more or less word for word from the last RBA announcement, no change and the second attempt through the 0.7790 level saw the same effect and the market drifting back to the 0.7770 levels and into the grey hours just above the level, Topside offers lighter than previously having cleared some of the offers today and the congestion likely through the 0.7820 areas quickly been taken out on a push through the 78 cent areas with stops likely to run into more resistance on a push towards the 0.7840-60 levels with offers then likely to increase on any attempt to move higher, downside bids light through to the 0.7750 levels with congestion likely around the area to slow any descent, and then increasing on an approach to the 77 cent areas, the market for the moment has little economic news to move around off and limited indication from the RBA for the future.
Overnight News
NAFTA:
US Trade representative Lighthizer speaks after NAFTA Round
Lighthizer: If NAFTA can’t be trilateral, we’ll go bilateral
Lighthizer: Time running out for current congress to pass NAFTA
Lighthizer: The longer we go on, more political headwinds
Lighthizer: Automotive rules, procurement important
Lighthizer: More chapters tend to close near ends of talks
Lighthizer: We’ve completed just 6 of about 30 chapters
Lighthizer: we haven’t made progress that many had hoped
Lighthizer: I appreciate efforts made by negotiators
Lighthizer: Thanks Guajardo, Freeland for hard work
EUR:
Markets concern with an unholy alliance of 5Star and Lega both anti EU
Italy’s surging populists run into a political muddle but for how long
CNY:
China Monetary policy may be more flexible in 2018 Journal
China should cut RRR to prevent risks from lower growth Journal
China monetary policy to be more flexible in 2018 Sec. Journal
USD:
Fed Considering broad revisions to Volcker rule compliance
Trump to meet companies that use steel, aluminium to discuss tariffs
AUD:
Australia Jan, retail sales rise 0.1% MoM est. 0.4%
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Retail Sales Monitor Y/Y Feb A 0.60% | C 0.50% | P 0.60%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Current Account Balance (AUD) Q4 A -14.0B | C -12.3B | P -9.1B | R -11.0B
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Jan A 0.10% | C 0.40% | P -0.50%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBA Rate Decision A 1.50% | C 1.50% | P 1.50%
08:15Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Feb C 0.30% | P -0.10%
08:15Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Feb C 0.60% | P 0.70%
09:10Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Retail PMI Feb P 50.8
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Factory Orders Jan C -1.30% | P 1.70%
15:00Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Ivey PMI Feb C 56.3 | P 55.2
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Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Opening saw the market higher as German SPD voting supported a coalition with the CDU testing from the opening around the 1.2345 levels to make the day’s highs above the 1.2365 level before early Italian exit polls started to come through, with the anti EU parties pushing clearly ahead, the early results confirmed the exit polls and Lega and 5 star pulled quickly ahead and the market dropped back quickly through to the 1.2300 levels in early Tokyo before bouncing off the level and returning back towards the opening levels, the market then drifted through the balance of the Asia and into the grey hours, early European selling saw the market dropping through to the 1.2270 levels before early London turned the tide and a steady march back towards the 1.2330 level into the European numbers, mixed results as usual for the Services numbers saw the Eurozone drifting off again and the market holding around the 1.2330 through to just before the NYK opening, and another round of selling through to the 1.2285 level and less volume, the recovery was slow through the NYK session with the market moving up towards the 1.2350 level before holding quietly through to the close with a narrow range around the 1.2330 areas.
- GBP: Limited reaction to the going’s on in Europe saw the Cable opening a little higher around the 1.3810 levels and a drift from the early highs to test through the 1.3780 areas with the market then ranging through the Asian session between the lows and 1.3805 level, the market moved into the grey hours drifting to the lows of the day with the market testing through the 1.3770 level before buyers into the London opening saw the market moving steadily higher and the release of better than expected PMI services saw the market testing through to the 1.3835 areas before drifting through to the NYK session, with a possible trade war between the EU and US the market lifted quickly into the NYK period trading quickly through the 1.3835 level and triggering minor stops on a run to the 1.3880 levels before running out of steam and starting a slow drift once the London market closed testing back to hold around the 1.3835 levels and a slow rise to the close to hold 1.3850.
- JPY: A very slow day for the USDJPY with events in Europe and possible trade wars deflecting from the USDJPY the market opened around the 105.60 level and drifted through to hold around the 105.50 levels with minor attempts through the 105.30 into the grey hours before slowly rising through to the opening levels, London opening saw the market slowly pushing higher through the day and into the NYK session testing the 105.90’s eventually pushing through the level once London had close and slowly testing to the 106.20 level and holding through to the close around that level.
- AUD: Opening almost unchanged the market moved slowly higher to the 0.7765 areas before dipping lower into the Tokyo opening pushed to the 0.7745 areas the market recovered some composure and the market again tested through to the 0.7770 levels to post the highs of the day, holding for an hour or so around the area the market slipped back after the CNY PMI numbers dropping back to the 0.7740 levels and holding through to the grey hours around the 0.7750 level, early selling saw the market slip through to the 0.7730’s before ranging through to the 0.7750 areas through to the NYK session with the market limited as USDJPY was becalmed, NYK tested the mid 0.7720’s before starting a steady rise through to the opening levels and a quiet range through to the close holding the 0.7765 areas.
Yesterday’s premiership results
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â TD Securities Inflation M/M Feb A -0.10% | P 0.30%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Approvals M/M Jan A 17.10% | C 5.00% | P -20.00% | R -20.60%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Caixin PMI Services Feb A 54.2 | C 54.3 | P 54.7
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Italy Services PMI Feb A 55 | C 57 | P 57.7
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Services PMI Feb (F) A 57.4 | C 57.9 | P 57.9
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Services PMI Feb (F) A 55.3 | C 55.3 | P 55.3
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services PMI Feb (F) A 56.2 | C 56.7 | P 56.7
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Services PMI Feb A 54.5 | C 53.3 | P 53
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Mar A 24 | C 30.9 | P 31.9
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Jan A -0.10% | C -0.10% | P -1.10% | R -1.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â US Services PMI Feb (F) A 55.9 | C 55.9 | P 55.9
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services Composite Feb A 59.5 | C 59 | P 59.9
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