Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 106.222 | EURUSD 1.23118 | AUDUSD 0.77786 | NZDUSD 0.72575 | USDCAD 1.28969 | USDCHF 0.95105 | GBPUSD 1.38125 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.23190 | 1.22952
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 106.944 | 106.173
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.38160 | 1.37881
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.95350 | 0.95009
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.77957 | 0.77768
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29093 | 1.28885
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72757 | 0.72495
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.17247 | 1.17014
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.89238 | 0.89126
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 131.598 | 130.743
For today
- EUR: Limited movement through the Asian session with the market eventually dipping through the 1.2300 levels and briefly basing along the 1.2295 before returning to the opening level for a long drawn out move through to the grey hours, Downside congestion through the 1.2300 levels with the possibility of weak stops on a move through the 1.2280 level before running into further congestion around the 1.2250 levels and likely to continue through to the 1.2200 with better bids likely to appear the closer the market moves to the level, stops on a move through the 1.2160 level are likely to be key to any downside potential with three important figures in the US likely to dominate the day, Topside offers light through to the 1.2400 levels again with congestive offers into and through the level with stronger offers likely on any attempt into the 1.2440-60 level and while there may be a small patch of weakness however, any move towards the 1.2500 level is likely to see stronger offers appearing and the ever present ECB unnamed sources and leaks providing verbal intervention.
- GBP: Not dissimilar to the Euro with the initial dip from the opening around the 1.3815 levels and falling through to the 1.3790 level before rising slowly higher and holding above the 1.3800 into the grey hours, Downside bids light through the 1.3750 levels but then increasing as the market moves towards the 1.3700 areas with any push through the level likely to see weak stops appearing and the potential for a deeper move on a technical level however, the market for several weeks has been fairly resilient to the dips and nothing I can see is likely to change that, a busy day for numbers in the UK as well as the US does open the potential though and a move through the level will likely see stronger stops appearing and a test through the sentimental levels with the 1.3600 then becoming key to holding above last month’s ranges, Topside offers light through to the 1.3900 areas with some congestion through the 1.3950 level before the stronger 1.4000 levels appear, only a strong break above the 1.4050 level will free topside potential and some stops appearing.
- JPY: Today’s mover was the USDJPY rising from the opening lows from the 106.20 area and pushing into the Tokyo session testing through the 106.40 areas, with Trump’s commentary, Tokyo took the market quickly through to the 106.95 areas with the BoJ’s monetary policy statement a little dovish and the USDJPY making its highs, the market held close to the level for a short period before dipping slowly through to the 106.60 areas and holding quietly through to the grey hours, Topside congested into the 107.00-20 areas with a puhs through the level likely seeing weak stops however, until the market clears the 107.50 level the potential for a stronger move is limited to 107.80 with the possibility of the impetus then limited however, a push beyond the 108 level will likely see stronger movement reappearing and a quick push to the 108.50 areas before meeting stronger offers again, Downside bids light through to the 106.20-105.90 areas with weak stops possible through the level and the downside then opening to the 105.40 where stronger bids appear for any attempt to push at the 105.00 levels, strong stops through that level open up the potential of the 103 handle with only sentimental levels open.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7784 level the market saw very limited movement with the market moving into the Tokyo session testing through to the 0.7776 level before spending much of the time around the 0.7780 areas, the market rose into the grey hours testing through the 0.7790 levels. Downside bids into the 0.7720 levels with a push through the 77 cent level opening the market to a dip into the 0.7660-40 areas and stronger congestive bids slowing any further descent but pushing firmly into ranges from 2016-17 period. Topside offers into the 0.7850 slowing the market however a strong push through the 0.7880 level will likely see the 79 cent level becoming a target and possible weak stops on a move through the level and congestive offers reappearing on any test into the 0.7930 areas.
Overnight News
CAD:
BoC upbeat about economy remains cautious on protectionist rhetoric
Lane US tax reforms may also reduce relative attractiveness of investing in Canada
USD/KRW:
Kim Jong Un is said to invite Trump to meet
Security Chief Chung says he briefed Trump on visit to N. Korea
Chung says Kim will refrain from future tests
USD:
FED’s George says strong US economy poses upside risks
US Asks China for a plan to reduce Trade deficit by $100B
EUR:
Bundesbank back in charge of ECB, sending shivers through Italy – UKT
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Overall Household Spending Y/Y Jan A 2.00% | C -0.80% | P -0.10%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Feb A 3.30% | C 3.30% | P 3.40%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â BOJ Monetary Policy Statement
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Labour Cash Earnings Y/Y Jan A 0.70% | C 0.60% | P 0.70%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â PPI Y/Y Feb A 3.70%% | C 3.80% | P 4.30%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Feb A 2.90% | C 2.40% | P 1.50%
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Trade Balance Jan C 21.1B | P 21.4B
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Industrial Production M/M Jan C 0.60% | P -0.60%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Jan C-12.0B | P -13.6B
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Jan C 1.50% | P -1.30%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y Jan C 1.80% | P 0.00%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production M/M Jan C 0.20% | P 0.30%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production Y/Y Jan C 2.80% | P 1.40%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction Output M/M Jan C -0.50% | P 1.60%
12:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â NIESR GDP Estimate Feb C 0.40% | P 0.50%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Change in Employment Feb C 21.0K | P -88.0K
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Feb C 5.90% | P 5.90%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Change in Non-farm Payrolls Feb C 205K | P 200K
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Feb C 4.00% | P 4.10%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Hourly Earnings M/M Feb C 0.20% | P 0.30%
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Inventories M/M (JAN F) C 0.70% | P 0.70%
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Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A quiet move through the Asian session with the market drifting off a little from the opening 1.2410 areas, the move into the grey hours saw the market testing below the 1.2400 levels and then rising to the opening levels again into the London opening, the market drifted through the session pushing through to the 1.2375 levels before finding limited support, the move into the NYK session saw the market rising quickly as a dovish commentary from the ECB hit the market, with some limited comments about the APP bias could be increased given certain expectations testing through to the 1.2430 levels and then slowly testing towards the 1.2450 levels before Draghi hit the wire stating this reflected backward looking and the Euro quickly tumbled to the previous levels and then drifted through into the London close pushing through the 1.2335 levels with light stops triggered along the way, the market continued to drift into the late part of the session and generally ignored the Trump commentary through to the close as he set out some of the conditions for tariffs.
- GBP: Very quiet overall with the market holding quietly in a tight range through the Asian session and only fluctuating into London session and making early highs just above the 1.3910 level, and then drifting through to the NYK session slowly slipping to the 1.3850 areas, a recovery through into the NYK session saw the market unable to push through the 1.3900 level again and the market slowly drifted lower with the drag of the Euro testing through to the 1.3795 areas and minor gyrations around the period of Trumps speech with a little stab to the 1.3780 areas before holding quietly through to the close above the 1.3810 level.
- JPY: A very quiet range through the day for the USDJPY, opening around the 106.05 areas and holding quietly through the session rising to the 106.20 levels before drifting through to the grey hours pushing below the 106.00 level and basing around the 105.90 level into London, a little surge in early trading saw the market gaining back to the opening levels and then holding in a tight range all the way through to the end of the London session, ranging in the 106.05-25 levels saw the market eventually rise slowly through to the 106.30 areas before settling slightly back into the close.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7620 areas the market slipped in early trading into the mid-teens before moving higher on the CNY numbers and holding broadly just below the 0.7840 level through to the grey hours, London sold the market off slowly through into the midmorning period before holding around the 78 cent areas and unable to move to far away from there, NYK sold the market lower pushing quickly through to the 0.7780 areas dipping slightly through to the 0.7772 areas before rebounding from the lows the market held quietly through to the close around the 0.7780 areas.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Activity Q4 A 2.80% | P 0.50%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Current Account (JPY) Jan A 2.02T | C 1.76T | P 1.48T | R 1.68T
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q4 (F) A 0.40% | C 0.20% | P 0.10%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Deflator Y/Y Q4 (F) A 0.10% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RICS House Price Balance Feb A 0% | C 7% | P 8%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance Jan A 1.06B | C 0.22B | P -1.36B | R -1.15B
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (USD) Feb A 33.7B | C -8.5B | P 20.3B
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CNY) Feb A 225B | C -71B | P 136B
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Feb A 2.90% | C 2.90% | P 3.00%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Factory Orders M/M Jan A -3.90% | C -1.60% | P 3.80% | R 3.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Feb A -4.30% | P -2.80%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Rate Decision A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Feb A 229.7K | C 220K | P 216K | R 215.3K
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Housing Price Index M/M Jan A 0.00% | C 0.10% | P 0.00%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M Jan A 5.60% | C 1.30% | P 4.80% | R 2.50%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 3) A 231K | C 216K | P 210K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A -57B | C -58B | P -78B
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