Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 105.335 | EURUSD 1.24024 | AUDUSD 0.76785 | NZDUSD 0.72736 | USDCAD 1.28887 | USDCHF 0.94675 | GBPUSD 1.41587 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.24218 | 1.24031
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 105.670 | 105.369
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.42005 | 1.41621
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.94817 | 0.94604
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.77021 | 0.76754
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.28843 | 1.28695
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72746 | 0.72613
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.17612 | 1.17375
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.87602 | 0.87357
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 131.170 | 130.668
For today
- EUR: A steady rise through the session with the market moving off the opening lows and testing through to the 1.2420 levels, pushing quietly through into the grey hours, Topside offers through the 1.2480-1.2500 levels possible weak stops on a move through the 1.2520 areas however, congestive offers into the 1.2540 levels and the highs of the year possible providing strong resistance with a quick push through towards the 1.2590-1.2600 levels and option plays becoming the focus. Downside bids light through to the 1.2300 areas with some congestion through the level and weak stops not likely to appear until the market tests the 1.2240 areas with sentimental bids through the 1.2200 areas.
- GBP: Cable moved through from the opening levels testing to the 1.4180 levels on a quick move for the Tokyo fixing and then holding quietly through the first half of Tokyo around that level before pushing through to the 1.4190 areas on the run to the grey hours, Topside offers through the 1.4250 level with congestion likely to extend from there through to the stronger 1.4300 levels with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.4330 areas. Downside bids light through to the 1.4100 levels with much cleared yesterday a break below the level will likely see only minor stops and the bids returning into the 1.4050 areas and likely to be stronger.
- JPY: A rise into the Tokyo session saw the market move from the opening 105.35 level to push through the 105.60 areas and then ranging through to the grey hours 105.50-65 levels, Topside offers light through the 105.80-106.00 levels with weak stops on a test through 106.20 likely to appear and the market lightly congested until closer to the 107.00 levels where stronger offers are suspected, downside bids, light through to the 105.00 levels and then getting stronger as the market pushes through the level and continuing to strengthen on a dip towards the 104.50 areas with weak stops possible on a move through the level.
- AUD: AUDJPY buying saw the Oz move off the lows through into the Tokyo session to steadily push through to the 77 cent levels and hold for a long period to the grey hours, Downside bids likely to be strong into the 0.7650 areas with further congestion likely to continue through to the 76 cent levels, a mix of stops and bids on a push through the level will continue to see congestive bids for a long way, Topside offers light through the 77 cent areas with congestion through to the 0.7740-60 areas before weak stops appear and quickly absorbed by offers into the 78 cent area.
Overnight News
JPY:
Japan’s Finance ministry at breaking point as former minister Sagawa exits the lower house after his testimony
USD/KRW:
US-Korean trade deal includes currency agreement aimed at deterring competitive Won devaluation
Increasing transparency of Korean forex interventions senior administration officials
NZD:
NZ Business confidence “treading water†ANZ
KRW:
Kim Jong Un visited China’s Xi
CNY/KRW:
China says N. Korea pledges denuclearisation during friendly visit
GBP:
UK is said to offer hard border resolution imminently Times
USD:
Bernanke beliefs busted: new research foretells QE dominating
Trump is fighting the wrong was as China takes aim at the mighty Dollar
AUD:
Aussie banks face squeeze as conduct probe crimps pricing power
EUR/USD
In call with TRUMP, Merkel urges EU-US dialogue on trade
EUR:
Riskiest bank debt could spark market turmoil, Bundesbank
Salvini says 5 star can’t ask for Forza Italia out of Govt. – Ansa
SEK:
Skingsley says natural that Riksbank raises rate before ECB
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ANZ Business Confidence Mar A -20 | P -19
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GfK Consumer Confidence Apr C 10.7 | P 10.8
10:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CBI Reported Sales Mar C 7 | P 8
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Advance Goods Trade Balance Feb C -74.1B | P -75.3B
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Inventories M/M Feb (P) C 0.50% | P 0.80%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Annualized Q/Q Q4 (T) C 2.70% | P 2.50%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Price Index Q4 (T) C 2.30% | P 2.30%
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Pending Home Sales M/M Feb C 2.00% | P -4.70%
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P -2.6M
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Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A quiet move through the Asian session holding around the 1.2450 levels, unable to move towards the 1.2460 level and unable to push below the 1.2440 area, the move into the London period saw the market rise through to test towards the 1.2480 levels but having failed the level the market drops back quickly through to the NYK session falling in a steady tight channel through to the 1.2375 level before starting a limited recovery, confidence numbers were weaker than expected pulled the rug from underneath the Euro and although the move into the NYK session saw limited buying to take the market back above the 1.2400 levels it struggled through to the close.
- GBP: Holding quietly through the Asian session, pushing lightly through to the 1.4240 levels before drifting back off to the opening levels and holding the 1.4220 at the widest, the move into London saw limited attempt to push the highs but failed at the 1.4245 levels and was then tracking lower with the Euro, either because both GBP and Euro’s faced highs from early in the year or as some suggest end of quarter selling filtering through, either way the result was the same and the Cable slipped in a tight channel through to the 1.4100 levels triggered minor stops on a slip through and then bounced back through to the 1.4150 levels, the market edged a little higher and ranged through to the close above the 1.4150 level to the close.
- JPY: A very limited day for the USDJPY with the market moving from the opening 105.40 levels trading quietly through the 105.50 areas and then struggling for a couple of hours, as the market settled the market ran to the 105.70 and then holding through into the London session, minor dip on the opening in London before starting another slow rise pushing towards the 105.90 levels into the NYK session before dropping off and ranging in the 105.60-75 levels to the close.
- AUD: A slow drift through the day, with the market opening around the 0.7745 levels and unable to push to far above the 0.7755 areas and then drifting after a couple of hours into the Tokyo session, the move into the London session saw the market around the 0.7735 areas but continuing the slide lower. NYK saw the market holding the 77 cent levels and traded in a tight 0.7700-15 levels through to late in the session and the Sydney market moving in saw the market again adrift and slipping to hold the 0.7675 area to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Corporate Service Price Y/Y Feb A 0.60% | C 0.70% | P 0.70%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Import Price Index M/M Feb A -0.60% | C -0.30% | P 0.50%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone M3 Money Supply Y/Y Feb A 4.20% | C 4.60% | P 4.60% | R 4.50%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Economic Confidence Mar A 112.6 | C 113.3 | P 114.1 | R 114.2
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Business Climate Indicator Mar A 1.34 | C 1.36 | P 1.48
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Confidence Mar A 6.4 | C 6.9 | P 8
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services Confidence Mar A 16.3 | C 16.5 | P 17.5 | R 17.6
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Consumer Confidence Mar (F) A 0.1 | C 0.1 | P 0.1
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Jan A 6.40% | C 6.10% | P 6.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Confidence Mar A 127.7 | C 131 | P 130.8 | R 130
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