Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 106.776 | EURUSD 1.22784 | AUDUSD 0.77162 | NZDUSD 0.73091 | USDCAD 1.27696 | USDCHF 0.96082 | GBPUSD 1.40801 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.22903 | 1.22742
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 107.026 | 106.712
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.40975 | 1.40674
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.96161 | 0.96006
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.77267 | 0.76857
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.27760 | 1.27462
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.73225 | 0.72836
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.18051 | 1.17952
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.87264 | 0.87166
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 131.416 | 131.108
For today
- EUR: Another quiet day for Asia with the market opening around the 1.2280 and moving slowly higher and deep into the Tokyo session testing the 1.2290 levels, before dipping back again and moved slowly through the opening levels to head into the grey hour testing towards the 1.2270 levels. Downside bids down through to the 1.2240 levels are likely to limit or slow the market on any selloff however, PMI numbers for the Eurozone overall may initially cause some problems and initial claims and Trade balance into the US session could have some stronger bearing on the matter, a push to the 1.2200 level is likely to see some reasonable buying moving in and the downside remains fairly strong until a breach of the 1.2160 level were stops are likely to appear and the market quickly opening for a test to the 1.2100 levels. Topside offers light through to the 1.2340 level and then congestive offers appear through to the 1.2360 areas, there may be some weak points above the 1.2360 level but good offers are likely to quickly reappear on any test towards the 1.2400 level and likely congestive through the level with only strong impetus likely to disturb the 1.2440-60 areas, and then stronger technical offers through to the 1.2500 areas.
- GBP: Initial attempt into Tokyo to push the 1.4100 level only to fail again for the second time just above the 1.4095 level, the market slowly drifted from the failure and tested slowly through to the 1.4070 areas into late in the session to head towards the grey hour, Topside offers into the 1.4100 still remain and seem to be fairly stubborn however, we’ve seen two pushes to the level in the past 24hours so the market must be thinning a little, the offers could extend through to the 1.4115 level with weak stops from that point and the market then seeing very little until around the sentimental 1.4150 area with congestion likely to continue from there to the 1.4200 areas, downside bids into the 1.4000 areas have been fairly resilient over the past week so obviously bids have built in the area, any move through is likely to see weak stops and this could push the market quickly to the stronger and more congested 1.3950 areas with those bids spread through to 1.3900 level and further bids.
- JPY: Opening around the 106.75 levels saw quiet trading through into the Tokyo session basing along that opening level before starting a slow rise through to challenge the 107.00 areas and holding in a tight range through the 106.95 area to the grey hour, Topside offers into and through the 107.00 level with likely weaker offers once through the 107.20 area however, 107.50 is likely to be a stronger technical point and opening up to the 108.00 key level for a move higher with each sentimental level likely to be resistant to normal attempts, Downside bids a little weaker back through the 106.00 level and congestive bids likely to be spread over the 105.00 handle with stronger points into the 105.50 and 105.00 levels however, the strong supportive level is likely to be that 104.60 level and the lows of the year and opening up the downside to further losses.
- AUD: The Oz made early highs with a better trade balance pushing from the opening around the 0.7715 areas to test towards the 0.7730 level however, the move into the Tokyo session took the shine of the market and a slow decline through to the 0.7690 areas before finding some limited support for the move into the grey hour, Downside bids light through to the 0.7660-40 areas where support increases a little and a push through will likely see 76 cent becoming vulnerable however, the move higher this year took time and to get there was a long drawn out move with the market spending many months in the 74-77 range so the downside is likely to be just the same struggle for the moment. Topside offers through the 77 cent level are likely to see some weak stops maybe above the 0.7730 areas and then further congestive selling into the 0.7740-60 level and then increasing as the market pushes towards the 78 cent levels.
Overnight News
NZD:
NZ house price inflation quickened in March, QV says
USD:
US plans to sanction Russian oligarchs this week RTRS
Kudlow says China tariffs just proposals amid trade war fears
CNN: Trump just put himself in political red zone following Amazon and growing trade war
Trump is said to soften NAFTA demand on regional car content
GBP:
UK is said to locate source of Salisbury nerve agent Times
CAD:
Canada pushes changes to tighten trade enforcement
NAFTA negotiators open to US ideas on agreeing a deal
NAFTA: But do not see how can complete remaining chapters in 2 weeks
NAFTA: negotiators think it is possible consensus on some key issues, but big gaps remain
NAFTA: No current plans for an 8th round of talks
JPY:
Libor hurts Japan’s desire for foreign assets as costs rise
BoJ rate hike is likely within a year, Ex chief economist says
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (AUD) Feb A 0.83B | C 0.72B | P 1.06B | R 0.95B
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Factory Orders M/M Feb C 1.50% | P -3.90%
07:15Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Mar C 0.30% | P 0.40%
07:15Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Mar C 0.70% | P 0.60%
07:45Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Italy Services PMI Mar C 53.9 | P 55
07:50Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Services PMI Mar (F) C 56.8 | P 56.8
07:55Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Services PMI Mar (F) C 54.2 | P 54.2
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services PMI Mar (F) C 55 | P 55
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Services PMI Mar C 54 | P 54.5
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PPI M/M Feb C 0.00% | P 0.40%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PPI Y/Y Feb C 1.50% | P 1.50%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Feb C 0.60% | P -0.10%
11:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Mar P -4.30%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â International Merchandise Trade (CAD) Feb C -2.1B | P -1.9B
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 31) C 223K | P 215K
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance Feb C -56.5B | P -56.6B
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P -63B
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Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Overall a quiet rise through the Asian session pushing from the opening around the 1.2270 levels and testing towards the 1.2290’s before slowing and drifting into the grey hour, the move through to the London session saw the market test slowly back to the opening levels before the selling through the London open took it to the lows around the 1.2260 level, a better employment number helped the market running quickly higher through to the 1.2316 surprising the market a little and the selling quickly reversed the market back to the 1.2280 areas and ranging through to the NYK session, the market again tested through the 1.2310 levels however, the move was short lived and the market drifted through the balance of the session to range around the 1.2280 level to the close.
- GBP: Asia had the first run at the 1.4100 level with the market rising slowly from the opening and pushing to the 1.4070 levels, a push through the 1.4080 level was quick and looked a little like a single ticket move with a pause and a second event taking the market just above the 1.4095 levels before slipping a little off from the highs before moving slowly through into London retracing the gains, London sold the market through the opening levels and the market tumbled to the 1.4030 levels and held into the NYK session before falling away to the 1.4015 areas on weak selling, a weaker ADP number saw the USD weaken and the rise was quick triggering weak stops on a move back to the 1.4070 levels and a slow push through to the 1.4085 area however, the market was done and the move through to the close saw the market holding around the 1.4080 areas in quiet trading.
- JPY: Opening around the 106.60 levels the move through the Asian session was quiet and unexciting to say the least, the market drifted from the opening levels to trade through to London almost unchanged on the day with a tight range, London saw solid and quick selling down to the 106.00 levels with lots of rumours of a supportive buyer raising the market over the past few days laid at a large investor, the markets push at the level failed each time and the move into the NYK session saw the market starting to slowly recover even after the disappointing US numbers the market slowly pushed back to the 106.35 areas before jumping on weak stops to the 106.60 areas and a slow grind through to the close to set the highs around the 106.85 level.
- AUD: Mixed day for the Oz but a fairly narrow range overall, early trading was quiet until the release of the retail sales number and the market pushed off the 0.7680 levels rising quickly to above the 0.7710 level for a quiet move through to the London session, London were less inclined to follow through on the number and the dip back through the 0.7690 level saw weak stops triggered and the market falling back to the 0.7665 area before holding for a couple of hours and starting a slow steady rise through the balance of the day to marginally push through the 0.7720 level just before the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Mar A -1.00% | P -0.80%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Feb A 0.60% | C 0.30% | P 0.10%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Approvals M/M Feb A -6.20% | C -5.00% | P 17.10%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Caixin PMI Services Mar A 52.3 | C 54.5 | P 54.2
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI Mar A 47 | C 51 | P 51.4
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Unemployment Rate Feb A 8.50% | C 8.50% | P 8.60%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Mar A 1.40% | C 1.40% | P 1.20% | R 1.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Mar (A) A 1.00% | C 1.10% | P 1.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ADP Employment Change Mar A 241K | C 205K | P 235K | R 246K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â US Services PMI Mar (F) A 54 | C 54.3 | P 54.1
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services Composite Mar A 58.8 | C 59 | P 59.5
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Factory Orders Feb A 1.20% | C 1.70% | P -1.40% | R -1.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A -4.6M | C 1.4M | P 1.6M
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