Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 106.942 | EURUSD 1.22814 | AUDUSD 0.76751 | NZDUSD 0.72721 | USDCAD 1.27814 | USDCHF 0.95913 | GBPUSD 1.4893 |

 

LMAX Ranges 6am GMT

Highs    Lows

EURUSD               1.22795 | 1.22656

USDJPY                 107.069 | 106.804

GBPUSD               1.41014 | 1.40855

AUDUSD              0.76961 | 0.76756

USDCHF               0.96022 | 0.95896

USDCAD               1.27844 | 1.27647

NZDUSD               0.73037 | 0.72711

EURGBP               0.87154 | 0.87056

EURCHF                1.17832 | 1.17704

EURJPY                 131.421 | 131.114

For today

• EUR: Opening unchanged the market slipped slowly from the opening around the 1.2280 areas before basing along the 1.2265 area through to the last hour and the run into the grey hours starting a slow rise towards the opening levels again, . Downside bids into the 1.2220-1.2180 levels with possible weak stops before finding 1.2160 and key level to a move towards the 1.2120 with minor support level, any push through the level will open the downside to further losses and the market open through to sentimental areas for a good way, Topside offers light through to the 1.2300 level with stronger offers not likely until the market pushes towards the 1.2340 areas with congestion likely to continue into 1.2360 before limited space for the move to the 1.2380-1.2400 levels.
• GBP: A fairly flat day through the session with early trading holding around the 1.4090 opening areas through to deep into Tokyo before the first attempt to test to the 1.4100 levels, before drifting back again to the opening level and holding then through the grey hours in mid-range, Topside offers light through the 1.4100 level but present, with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.4120 levels and opening the market to light congestive offers from there to the 1.4150 areas where likely to be a little bit thicker, and then continuing with sentimental as well as congestive offers through to the 1.4200 areas with stronger offers likely to appear on any move through the level and into the 1.4240-50 areas, a push through those levels will likely see buying increasing as the market pushes for the years highs, downside bids light through the congestive 1.4050 levels and possibly increasing on any dip through the 1.4000 levels again, strong congestion into the 1.3950 level will likely see 1.3900 become vulnerable to a strong test if the market breaks.
• JPY: A little choppy but limited in range with the market opening around the closing 106.95 levels and making a slow move through the 107.00 level before then slipping back on a weak current account number and the market dipping to 106.80 and then ranging around the 106.90 level for much of the session before rising through to test through the 107.05 levels before holding above the 107.00 level into the grey hours, Topside offers thin through to the 107.50 areas with stronger offers increasing into that level, weak stops on a push through the level will likely quickly force the market to test towards the 107.80-108.00 levels with stronger offers likely to be in the area and slowing any push through the level sufficiently to possibly limit the 108.30-60 resistance. Downside bids light through to the 106.50 levels with light congestion in the area and the market then opening to a fresh test through the 106.00 levels however, any move towards the 105.50 area could see stronger bids moving in again and seems to be the key to the lows of the year.
• AUD: A stronger construction index helped the Oz push off the 0.7670 lows and push slowly higher through to the 0.7695 areas late into the session with very little variation moving through the market, bids to the downside into the 0.7640 level are likely to see weak stops hanging below the level and the market opening to a deeper move in the long term however, for now those bids have been fairly resilient over the past couple of weeks and remain key to holding this area and the 76 cent level unchallenged with deep congestion through that level. Topside offers light through the 0.7700 levels with offers likely to continue through to the 0.7750 level in varying strengths, a break through the 0.7750 level will likely see weak stops opening and the market then having a run towards the stronger 78 cent level.

Overnight News

AUD:

Turnbull loses 30^th consecutive poll in blow to Government

JPY:

PM Abe’s cabinet disapproval rating nears 60%

Current account surplus increases on overseas income

BoJ’s annual JGB purchases slip below Y50 Trillion Market talk

USD:

Trump administration grants license for Taiwan submarine project RTRS

USD/CNY:

Trump officials soften tone on trade dispute with China

China unlikely to use US treasuries as trade war weapon – CASS

GBP:

Weak growth supplants Brexit as biggest risk, UK CFO’s say BBG

BoE may have a silent dissenter to interest rate hike path

Public backs fresh referendum to have final say on terms of Brexit according to recent poll Independent

EUR:

The Eurozone is already heading back into recession, and that could be catastrophic – UKT

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

AUD       AiG Performance of Construction Index Mar A 57.2 | P 56

JPY         Current Account (JPY) Feb A 1.02T | C 1.39T | P 2.02T

JPY         Consumer Confidence Mar A 44.3 | C 44.5 | P 44.3

JPY          Eco Watchers Survey Current Mar C 48 | P 48.6

05:45     CHF        Unemployment Rate Mar C 2.90% | P 2.90%

06:00     EUR        German Trade Balance Feb C 23.1B | P 21.3B

08:30     EUR        Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Apr C 20.8 | P 24

12:15     CAD       Housing Starts Mar C 220K | P 230K

14:30     CAD       BoC Overall Business Outlook Survey Q1

23:01     GBP       BRC Retail Sales Monitor Y/Y Mar

Weekend News

NAFTA:

No deal in principle to be announced at Lima summit

CNY/USD;

Taiwan is again becoming a flashpoint between China and US Economist

USD:

Trump tweets on China trade and Mexico border issues

Harry Hindsight

• EUR: Opening around the 1.2240 levels the market quietly rose through into the Tokyo session slowly moving to the 1.2260 levels before finding resistance sufficient to turn the market lower and sentiment slowly changed through the period, with the market moving into the grey hour testing the opening levels and London were quick sellers and the market moved through into early morning testing the 1.2215 areas to make the lows of the day before starting a slow rise higher with a weaker PMI and German IP numbers causing the weaker Euro, the move off the lows saw the opening levels recovered and a slow move to the NYK session and the NFP number, a mixed NFP number with a good revision not really offsetting the worse than expected headline number, the market saw some movement first higher towards the 1.2260 level before dropping back to the 1.2220 level and then flying quickly higher and triggering some weak stops through the highs to test to the 1.2280 level, the run to the close saw the market running to the range through the 1.2270 levels for several hours before pushing through to the 1.2290 as the market ran to the close drifting slightly back to the close.
• GBP: Cable struggled through the session but broadly had the same pattern through the day with the market rising in early Tokyo to test the 1.4020 levels before drifting back through the opening around the 1.4005 levels and trickling into the London session just above the 1.3985 areas, the low was made in early London testing just through the low before starting a slow steady rise through to the 1.4025 levels, holding through into the NYK session the market sparked higher with very little gyration line the Euro testing through to the 1.4100 levels before holding steady just below the levels and closing just below the level.
• JPY: USDJPY held quietly until it moved into the Tokyo session then dropped quickly as Trumps further tariffs hit the news, and the USDJPY quickly dropped to test the 107.00 levels and based into the early part of Tokyo around that level before slowly pushing through to the opening levels again and holding around the 107.30-40 through to the NYK session, NFP saw the market again dropping back through NYK with several steps low triggering weak stops on a move through the 107.00 level and holding just above the 106.80 levels to the close.
• AUD: Opening around the 0.7685 areas the Trump news however, sent the Oz quickly through to the 0.7660 areas before bouncing off the lows to trade at a slower price to the 0.7690 levels before sliding again into the London opening however, all though there was that initial sharp move the market traded in a quiet range through the day with the NFP extending the highs to just short of the 77 cent level before drifting off for the close to finish the day only just shy of the opening.

Yesterday’s premiership results

JPY         Overall Household Spending Y/Y Feb A 0.10% | C 0.30% | P 2.00%

JPY         Labour Cash Earnings Y/Y Feb A 1.30% | C 0.50% | P 0.70% | R 1.20%

JPY         Leading Index Feb (P) A 105.8 | C 105.5 | P 105.6

EUR        German Industrial Production M/M Feb A -1.60% | C 0.20% | P -0.10% | R 0.10%

CHF        Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF) Mar A 738B | C 734.5B | P 732.8B

EUR        Eurozone Retail PMI Mar A 50.1 | P 52.3

USD       Change in Non-farm Payrolls Mar A 103K | C 189K | P 313K | R 326K

USD       Unemployment Rate Mar A 4.10% | C 4.00% | P 4.10%

USD       Average Hourly Earnings M/M Mar A 0.30% | C 0.30% | P 0.10%

CAD       Net Change in Employment Mar A 32.3K | C 20.0K | P 15.4K

CAD       Unemployment Rate Mar A 5.80% | C 5.80% | P 5.80%

CAD       Ivey PMI Mar A 59.8 | C 60.2 | P 59.6

Stay lucky

Andy

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