Daily FX Market Commentary

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 112.953 | EURUSD 1.14914 | AUDUSD 0.7103 | NZDUSD 0.64619 | USDCAD 1.29469 | USDCHF 0.99179 | GBPUSD 1.31447 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 5.00am GMT

                                High | Low

EURUSD               1.15155 | 1.14929

USDJPY                 113.108 | 112.926

GBPUSD               1.31619 | 1.31421

USDCHF               0.99222 | 0.99069

AUDUSD              0.71267 | 0.71035

USDCAD               1.29454 | 1.29256

NZDUSD               0.64961 | 0.64765

EURCHF                1.14114 | 1.14000

EURGBP               0.87500 | 0.8743

EURJPY                 130.232 | 129.813

 

For today

• GBP: A slow rise through the 1.3150 levels sees the Cable pushing through to the 1.3160 area through into the grey hour on quiet trading, Topside offers through the 1.3200 level and likely continue to the 1.3210 levels before weak stops appear and the market opens to the 1.3280 levels with stronger stops above the level with limited congestion through the 1.3350 areas and increasing to the 1.3400 level, downside bids light through to the 1.3100 level with a slightly better set of bids likely in the area before weak stops appear and the market opens to the 1.3000 areas.
• JPY: Limited movement for the USDJPY with the market holding through into the Tokyo session around the 113.00 area and making a weak move through to the 113.10 areas before drifting between the opening and the high to the grey hour, Downside bids through to the 112.80 level with weak stops opening the downside to limited bids into the 112.50 area with some reasonable bids into the level and weakness through to the 112.00-111.80 level. topside offers through the 113.40-60 limited however, a move through will likely see the 114.00 tested quickly with congestion likely to run beyond that level and in depth to the 114.60 areas.
• AUD: Opening just above the 0.7100 level the Oz saw the market moving slowly through to the 0.7125 areas before holding quietly around the 0.7120 area to the grey hour, likely strong congestion through the 0.7150 areas to the topside and then opening up a little through to the 72 cents areas a move through the level is likely to see a mix of weak stops and congestion and possibly a little bit of a two way battle before the market opens to the 0.7250 areas and then stronger offers on a move to the 73 cents levels. Downside bids light back through the 71 cents level with congestion likely to continue through to the 0.7050 area where stronger bids are likely to reappear.
• EUR: Rising slowly through to the Tokyo session some EURJPY buying for the fix saw the Euro test through to the 1.1515 level and then range around the 1.1510 levels through to the grey hour in very quiet trading. Downside bids into the 1.1420 levels with weak stops only likely to appear on a strong move through the 1.1380 areas and opening the market to a quick move to the 1.1320-00 area before stronger supportive bids move in, topside offers into the 1.1540-60 level likely to be weak however, the closer the market moves to the 1.1580 area the stronger the offers are likely to be.

 

Overnight News

IMF:

Trillions in US net worth vulnerable to recession IMF

USD:

FED policymaker says clarity key to avoiding global disruption

Trump questions UN global warming report

Nikki Haley unexpectedly resigns as Trump’s UN ambassador

Williams: FED nearing normal policy from normalizing process

Williams: expects FED to make further gradual rate increases

Williams: Inflation to go a bit above 2% but no strong pressure

JPY:

Japan’s core machinery orders point to more capex gains

GBP:

UK Brexit minister Raab confident of Brexit deal in autumn

AUD:

Australia’s CBA hit with lawsuit over pension investments

NZD:

Robertson: Prudent to run surpluses, pay down debt

 

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

AUD       Westpac Consumer Confidence Oct A 1.00% | P -3.00%

JPY         Machine Orders M/M Aug A 6.80% | C -3.60% | P 11.00%

06:00     JPY         Machine Tool Orders Y/Y (Sep P) P 5.10%

08:30     GBP       Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Aug C -10.9B | P -10.0B

08:30     GBP       Industrial Production M/M Aug C 0.10% | P 0.10%

08:30     GBP       Industrial Production Y/Y Aug C 1.10% | P 0.90%

08:30     GBP       Manufacturing Production M/M Aug C 0.20% | P -0.20%

08:30     GBP       Manufacturing Production Y/Y Aug C 1.50% | P 1.10%

08:30     GBP       Construction Output SA M/M Aug C -0.40% | P 0.50%

08:30     GBP       GDP M/M Aug C 0.10% | P 0.30%

08:30     GBP       Index of Services 3M/3M Aug C 0.60% | P 0.60%

12:30     CAD       Building Permits M/M Aug C 1.30% | P -0.10%

12:30     USD       PPI M/M Sep C 0.20% | P -0.10%

12:30     USD       PPI Y/Y Sep C 2.80% | P 2.80%

12:30     USD       PPI Core M/M Sep C 0.20% | P -0.10%

12:30     USD       PPI Core Y/Y Sep C 2.40% | P 2.30%

14:00     USD       Wholesale Inventories M/M Aug (F) C 0.80% | P 0.80%

 

Harry Hindsight

• GBP: A quiet move through the Asian session with the market holding around the 1.3090 opening areas and pushing through the 1.3100 area into the grey hour, London saw steady selling from the opening and the market was forced lower through the morning session eventually testing through the 1.3050 levels to test into the 1.3030 areas before finding support and the market holding into the NYK session and the market starting a steady recovery through to the 1.3070 levels, after testing the 1.3050 level the market started to break higher with better Brexit chatter and tested through to the 1.3100 level and running for a second move with weak stops opening to the 1.3150 level to hold around the area through to the close.
• JPY: USDJPY saw a choppy day but limited in range with the market drifting from the opening around the 113.20 level and then once into the Tokyo session quickly moving through to the opening levels from the 112.90 area, the market again drifted through to the grey hour holding just above the 113.00 level and then moving quickly through towards the 113.40 level on the opening in London before dropping back again on cross selling, the move to the NYK session saw the market ranging around the 113.10-20 areas and a light push through to just above the 113.30 level before drifting back through the balance of the session to test just below the early lows of 112.90 and remaining sub 113.00 to the close.
• AUD: Limited range through the Asian session with early sellers in Tokyo taking the market through the 0.7070 level before recovering and pushing to the grey hour testing lightly through the 0.7090 level, London sold early taking the market through the first hour back to the lows and holding quietly around the level for several hours before breaking through the 0.7060 areas and holding through into the NYK session, buyers appeared around the NYK option fix and the market pushed steadily through the highs and continued a slow rally to the 71 cents level to finish the day just above the level.
• EUR: A quiet move through the Asian session sawt the Euro moving around the opening 1.1490 levels before rising a little into the grey hour to push lightly through the 1.1500 areas, early London sold steadily through the session and the Euro drifted slowly through to the 1.1485 areas before breaking quickly to move into the NYK session testing the 1.1435 area and NYK moving in to take the market quickly back to the 1.1450 level, short pause before rallying again and then to the 1.1480 level and a slow rise back to the opening levels to the close unchanged for the day.

 

Yesterday’s premiership results

GBP       BRC Retail Sales Monitor Y/Y Sep A -0.20% | C 0.10% | P 0.20%

JPY         Current Account (JPY) Aug A 1.43T | C 1.52T | P 1.48T

AUD       NAB Business Conditions Sep A 15 | C 9 | P 15 | R 14

AUD       NAB Business Confidence Sep A 6 | C 5 | P 4 | R 5

JPY         Eco Watchers Survey Current Sep A 48.6 | C 47.3 | P 48.7

EUR        German Trade Balance (EUR) Aug A 18.3B | C 15.9B | P 15.8B

USD       NFIB Small Business Optimism Sep A 107.9 | C 108.9 | P 108.8

CAD       Housing Starts Sep A 189K | C 203K | P 201K

 

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

 

LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.

Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.

 

If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.