Daily FX Market Commentary

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 112.163 | EURUSD 1.15936 | AUDUSD 0.71229 | NZDUSD 0.66238 | USDCAD 1.30317 | USDCHF 0.98947 | GBPUSD 1.3232 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 5.00am GMT

                                High | Low

EURUSD               1.16093 | 1.15855

USDJPY                 112.415 | 112.007

GBPUSD               1.32437 | 1.32208

USDCHF               0.99059 | 0.98933

AUDUSD              0.71304 | 0.71157

USDCAD               1.30394 | 1.30249

NZDUSD               0.65339 | 0.65158

EURCHF                1.14920 | 1.14628

EURGBP               0.87698 | 0.87559

EURJPY                 130.421 | 129.848

 

For today

• GBP: Cable ranged through the session holding the 1.3230-40 areas through to the move into the grey hours, congestion through to the 1.3300 level with possibly stronger offers into the level a push through the 1.3310-20 area is likely to see weak stops and the market opening through to the 1.3350 areas, congestion through to the 1.3400 level with lighter offers in the area then building to stronger congestion into the 1.3430-50 areas with strong stops likely above the level. downside bids light through the 1.3200 areas with weak stops on a dip through the level and the market then opening to limited congestion for a good distance with 1.3150 level likely to be the stronger level.
• JPY: USDJPY moved off the opening levels around the 112.10 area dipping a little in early trading to make the low just above the 112.00 area, the move into the Tokyo session saw the market moving slowly higher through the session to test to the 112.40 levels and holding through to the grey hour in that area. Downside bids through the 112.00-111.80 areas with weak stops on a dip through and into congestion likely to continue through to the 111.40-60 levels and some stronger bids likely, any weak stops through the level will likely be soaked up by congestion through to the 111.00 areas with deeper bids likely to appear thereafter through to the 110.50 area.
• AUD: A quiet Oz session saw the market holding quietly around the 0.7125 areas with the market moving to the lows in midsession testing the 0.7115 areas before returning to range in the 0.7125-30 area to the grey hour, downside bids likely to increase the closer the market moves to the 0.7040 areas and the sticking point for the past couple of weeks, a dip through the level is likely to see weak stops appearing and a push through the 70 cents level is likely to see option plays and then stronger stops for a deeper move lower and the sentimental values likely to be stronger point. Topside offers through to the 0.7140-60 areas with the likely offers increasing through to the 72 cents level, weak stops on a push through the 0.7220 areas and weak stops likely to allow the market to push deeper into the handle with increasing offers on a push through to the 73 cents areas.
• EUR: Euro struggled in early trading to move off the 1.1590 opening area eventually testing lightly through the 1.1600 level and holding quietly for a couple of hours around the level, as the market moved deeper into the session a quick push saw the market attempt to push the 1.1610 level before holding quietly through to the grey hour holding above the figure. Congestive offers are likely to continue through the 1.1620 area with some weak stops however, the congestion is likely to continue through the 1.1650 areas and increase on any attempt to push towards the 1.1700 areas, downside bids light back through to the 1.1500 area with congestion likely through to the 1.1480 area having seen the market cleared this week to the 1.1440 level stronger bids are likely to be closer to that level and continue into the 1.1400 area with minor stops in between.

 

Overnight News

IMF:

IMF warns trade friction, market turmoil to hurt Asian growth

CNY:

China human resources ministry says National energy administration director removed from post

China Sep aluminium, steel exports hold steady as trade row goes on

China posts record trade surplus with US as Sep export growth tops forecast

China exports rise 14.5% in Sep despite US trade tensions

USD:

FED reserve in Trump’s line of fire but unlikely to change course

US curbs China nuclear exports as Trump warns Americans not stupid

GBP/EUR:

Rumour mill suggests the Brexit deal has been completed

 

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

21:30     NZD       BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI Sep A 51.7 | P 52

23:50     JPY         Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Sep A 2.8% | C 2.90% | P 2.90%

CNY        Trade Balance (USD) Sep A 31.7B | C 19.4B | P 27.9B

CNY        Trade Balance (CNY) Sep A 213B | C 192.3B | P 179.8B

AUD       Home Loans M/M Aug A -1.00% | C -0.90% | P 0.40% | R 0.00%

JPY         Tertiary Industry Index M/M Aug A 0.50% | C 0.30% | P 0.10% | R -0.10%

06:00     EUR        German CPI M/M Sep (F) C 0.40% | P 0.40%

06:00     EUR        German CPI Y/Y Sep (F) C 2.30% | P 2.30%

09:00     EUR        Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Aug C 0.40% | P -0.80%

12:30     USD       Import Price Index M/M Sep C 0.30% | P -0.60%

14:00     USD       U. of Mich. Sentiment Oct (P) C 100.9 | P 100.1

 

Harry Hindsight

• GBP: Early Brexit comments helped Cable push quickly higher into the Tokyo session testing on a spike through the 1.3240 areas however, the move through to the London session saw the market drifting and London opening saw the market quickly retrace the move and test through to the 1.3180 areas and just below the previous days close, the market moved off the early lows steadily and moving quietly to the opening areas again saw the market increasing a little stronger and pushing against the highs again into the NYK session testing almost to the 1.3250 areas before again drifting through the early part of NYK holding for a brief period around the 1.3220 level, NYK option cut saw the market dropping quickly back away from the 1.3200 level and repeat as the market started a steady climb off the 1.3180 area lows and a slow climb back to range in the 1.3230-40 area to the close.
• JPY: Overall a fairly quiet session for the USDJPY with the market moving off a low close and trading sideways through the session holding in a tight 112.00 through to the 112.30 areas through deep into the London session before moving a little higher to push towards the 112.40 areas however, the 30 pip range continued through to the NYK session rising from the opening and testing just above the 112.50 levels before dropping back to the previous range and hold through to late in the session, a little flurry and a run to the 111.85 areas saw the low into the final couple of hours before pushing back above the 112.00 levels ranging quietly around the 112.10 area.
• AUD: Moving off the opening levels around the 0.7060 areas the Oz went into a steady climb through the Asian session pushing through to the 0.7080 levels in the first half of the session and holding quietly through to the London session, London took the market through to the 0.7085 areas and a gradual climb to push the 71 cents level into the NYK opening, strong buying from the opening in NYK suggests an option play for the day and the market ranged in the 0.7100-30 level on the wide and gradually closed down trending towards the higher end of the run.
• EUR: Euro saw a similar pattern to the Cable through the session with the market gradually moving higher through into the Tokyo session testing the 1.1540 level before quickly breaking through to the 1.1570 areas and holding quietly in that area through to the grey hour, early London were quiet sellers and the market drifted down to the 1.1535 areas again and quietly through to late morning before rising quickly as rumours on Brexit appeared taking the Euro too the 1.1570 areas again and slowly grinding away the offers into the 1.1580 areas, the move into the NYK session saw the market quickly pushing to the 1.1600 level failing and dropping quickly back to the 1.1550 areas before finding a base, with London out of the way the Euro started a steady rise through the session to again challenge the 1.1600 into the close.

 

Yesterday’s premiership results

GBP       RICS House Price Balance Sep A -2.00% | C 2.00% | P 2.00% | R 1.00%

JPY         Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index Y/Y Sep A 3.00% | C 2.90% | P 3.00%

AUD       Consumer Inflation Expectation Oct A 4.00% | P 4.00%

EUR        ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

CAD       New Housing Price Index M/M Aug A 0.00% | C 0.20% | P 0.10%

USD       CPI M/M Sep A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%

USD       CPI Y/Y Sep A 2.30% | C 2.40% | P 2.70%

USD       CPI Core M/M Sep A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.10%

USD       CPI Core Y/Y Sep A 2.20% | C 2.30% | P 2.20%

USD       Initial Jobless Claims (OCT 6) A 214K | C 205K | P 207K

USD       Natural Gas Storage A 90B | C 87B | P 98B

USD       Crude Oil Inventories A 6.0M | C 2.3M | P 8.0M

 

 

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