Daily FX Market Commentary

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 111.766 | EURUSD 1.15793 | AUDUSD 0.71312 | NZDUSD 0.65465 | USDCAD 1.29897 | USDCHF 0.98687 | GBPUSD 1.3152 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 5.00am GMT

                                High | Low

EURUSD               1.15927 | 1.15716

USDJPY                 112.050 | 111.739

GBPUSD               1.31614 | 1.31417

USDCHF               0.98869 | 0.98654

AUDUSD              0.71426 | 0.71229

USDCAD               1.29967 | 1.29792

NZDUSD               0.65916 | 0.65635

EURCHF                1.14441 | 1.14322

EURGBP               0.88092 | 0.8803

EURJPY                 129.834 | 129.436

 

For today

• GBP: From the opening a slight rise through into the Tokyo session pushing a little above the 1.3160 level before starting a slightly stronger drift through to hold in the mid 1.3140’s in quiet trading, Downside light bids through the 1.3100 areas with stronger congestion through into the 1.3050 level with limited congestion then continuing through to the 1.3000 areas a push through the level is likely to see weak stops and the market opening to a deeper move before stronger bids start to appear into the low 1.29 handle. Topside offers thin through to the 1.3180 level with light congestion then continuing through to the 1.3200 level and stronger offers then reappearing on a move through to the 1.3240 areas.
• JPY: A light rise from close to yesterday lows and pushing through to hold around the 112.00 areas through to the grey hours with very little happening in the pair, Downside bids into the 111.60 areas with weak stops possible on a push through the level however, congestion is fairly consistence through the 111 handle with the downside not really opening until the market pushes through the 110.50 areas and stronger stops a possibility, topside offers light through to the 112.80-113.00 levels weak stops likely on a push through the 113.20 level and the market opening to the 113.60 before stronger offers start to appear in the market.
• AUD: Another quiet session with much of the movement in the first hour after the RBA comments and pushing off the 0.7130 level to test above the 0.7140 area and holding those levels deep through the session, the move towards the grey hour saw the market drift off through the to the grey testing to the 0.7125 areas, downside bids likely to increase the closer the market moves to the 0.7040 areas and the sticking point for the past couple of weeks, a dip through the level is likely to see weak stops appearing and a push through the 70 cents level is likely to see option plays and then stronger stops for a deeper move lower and the sentimental values likely to be stronger point. Topside offers through to the 0.7140-60 areas with the likely offers increasing through to the 72 cents level, weak stops on a push through the 0.7220 areas and weak stops likely to allow the market to push deeper into the handle with increasing offers on a push through to the 73 cents areas.
• EUR: A limited rise through into the Tokyo session with the market pushing through the 1.1590 levels before drifting back to the opening levels with some mild selling eventually pushing the market through to the 1.1570’s before finding limited support. Congestive offers are likely to continue through the 1.1620 area with some weak stops however, the congestion is likely to continue through the 1.1650 areas and increase on any attempt to push towards the 1.1700 areas, downside bids light back through to the 1.1540 area with congestion likely through to the 1.1480 area having seen the market cleared this week to the 1.1440 level stronger bids are likely to be closer to that level and continue into the 1.1400 area with minor stops in between.

 

 

Overnight News

AUD:

RBA: Next move in cash rate more likely to be an increase

RBA: Uncertain consumption outlook still important consideration

RBA: Oz depreciation was likely helpful for economic growth

RBA: Data signalled further solid GDP growth in Sep quarter

RBA: No strong case for near term adjustment in policy

CNY:

USD/RMB rate in dangerous territory, China beige book CEO says

A manipulator label wouldn’t mean much for the Yuan BBG

China’s factory gate inflation cools for 3^rd month, point to slackening demand

USD:

US judge tosses out Stormy Daniels defamation suit against Trump

US tax overhaul takes toll on global investment flows

Annual US budget deficit hits six year high of USD 779B

 

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

NZD       CPI Q/Q Q3 A 0.90% | C 0.70% | P 0.40%

NZD       CPI Y/Y Q3 A 1.90% | C 1.70% | P 1.50%

AUD       RBA Minutes

CNY        CPI Y/Y Sep A 2.50% | C 2.50% | P 2.30%

CNY        PPI Y/Y Sep A 3.60% | C 3.60% | P 4.10%

08:30     GBP       Jobless Claims Change Sep C 4.5K | P 8.7K

08:30     GBP       Claimant Count Rate Sep P 2.60%

08:30     GBP       ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Aug C 4.00% | P 4.00%

08:30     GBP       Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y Aug C 2.40% | P 2.60%

08:30     GBP       Weekly Earnings ex Bonus 3M/Y Aug C 2.80% | P 2.90%

09:00     EUR        Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Aug C 15.0B | P 12.8B

09:00     EUR        German ZEW Economic Sentiment Oct C -12.3 | P -10.6

09:00     EUR        German ZEW Current Situation Oct C 72 | P 76

09:00     EUR        Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Oct C -9.2 | P -7.2

12:30     CAD       International Securities Transactions (CAD) Aug P 12.65B

13:15     USD       Industrial Production M/M Sep C -0.10% | P 0.40%

13:15     USD       Capacity Utilization Sep C 78.00% | P 78.10%

14:00     USD       NAHB Housing Market Index Oct C 68 | P 67

                                               

Harry Hindsight

• GBP: Opening around the 1.3100 level and dipping to the 1.3090 level before regaining the figure level in the same move saw the market some 50 pips adrift from the closing from Friday, with Brexit deal again seeming so far away and the no Brexit deal a step closer early pre market saw some strong sellers, the move through Asia saw a slow rise to the 1.3115 level through to the grey hour, early London buying took the market through to the 1.3125 areas and held for a few hours before starting a steady rise through to the 1.3180 levels as rumours abound however, whether you believe which rumour or don’t really care anymore remains to be seen with some economic think tank stating the UK will grow 30% over the next 12yrs if there is a no deal Brexit, once into the NYK session the market drifted back through to the end of the London session and then held above the 1.3150 levels through to the close.
• JPY: A slightly weaker opening with GBPJPY selling in pre-market sending USDJPY to just below the 112.10 areas before rising slowly through to the Tokyo session pushing a little above the 112.20 areas before the Tokyo fix and the market seeing supply driving the market down below the 112.00 areas before bouncing a little and helping the market to return to the 112.20 areas, the market drifted from deep in the session to test through the grey hour and the move into the London session looking weak and the drift continually slowly testing through the 111.80 levels and suspected stops almost imperceptible and testing through to midmorning in London to the 111.60 areas before finding support and pushing back to the 111.80 level and ranging through the NYK session in a tight range through to the close.
• AUD: Broadly in line with the close on Friday the market drifted from the opening and slowly tested into midmorning in Tokyo testing to the 71 cents level before ranging through to the grey hours to the 0.7100-0.7110 areas, London were quick buyers and the market pushed through to the 0.7130 levels, holding briefly before pushing again and testing to the 0.7140 areas, the market then held through to the close around the 0.7140 areas unable to break the 0.7150 and drifting into the close to the 0.7130 level.
• EUR: A weaker opening just below the 1.1550 levels saw the market slowly move up above the level and then drift around the level through to the grey hour, grey hour buying saw the market rising steadily through the London session top test into the 1.1600 level on a strong but steady rise, the move into the NYK session saw the market dipping back to the 1.1580 levels and a weaker retail sales number in the US saw the Euro gap and press through the 1.1600 level before drifting through the session to eventually settle on a quiet range to the close around the 1.1580 level.

 

Yesterday’s premiership results

GBP       Rightmove House Prices M/M Oct A 1.00% | P 0.70%

JPY         Industrial Production M/M Aug (F) A 0.20% | C 0.70% | P 0.70%

CHF        Producer & Import Prices M/M Sep A -0.20% | C 0.10% | P 0.00%

CHF        Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Sep A 2.60% | C 3.00% | P 3.40%

USD       Empire Manufacturing Oct A 21.1 | C 20.4 | P 19

USD       Retail Sales Sep A 0.10% | C 0.70% | P 0.10%

USD       Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M Sep A -0.10% | C 0.50% | P 0.30% | R 0.20%

USD       Business Inventories Aug A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P 0.60% | R 0.70%

CAD       BoC Business Outlook Survey

 

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