Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 113.586 | EURUSD 1.13276 | AUDUSD 0.72207 | NZDUSD 67871 | USDCAD 1.3255 | USDCHF 0.99868 | GBPUSD 1.28141 |

LMAX Highs and Lows 06.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.13430 | 1.13263

USDJPY                 113.583 | 113.412

GBPUSD               1.28231 | 1.28041

USDCHF               0.99939 | 0.99753

AUDUSD              0.72377 | 0.72136

USDCAD               1.32661 | 1.32475

NZDUSD               0.67795 | 0.67539

EURCHF                1.13180 | 1.13112

EURGBP               0.88510 | 0.88352

EURJPY                 128.739 | 128.499

For Today

  • GBP: A quiet range for the most part trading around the 1.2810 level for most of the session before rising in the final hour before the grey bit, downside bids congested through to the 1.2760 level where stronger bids are likely with weak stops through the level and opening to another stronger level into 1.2700 areas and the lows from last month, topside offers light through to the 1.2900 areas before congestion starts to appear with weak stops likely to be limited in impact by congestion through to the 1.2920 areas.
  • JPY: A slow drift from the opening saw the market moving from the 113.60 areas to test through to the 113.40’s in slow trading through to early Tokyo before starting a slow climb to hold quietly around the 113.50 level into the grey hours, downside bids congested on any dip through the 113.00 areas with limited stops through the 112.80 level and opening only in a limited fashion with congested areas moving in every 10 pips or so through to the 112.00 areas, stronger bids through to the 111.80 area and while stops may appear the market will likely see further congestion appearing on any dips. Topside offers light through to the 113.80-114.00 level with possible strength through the level to the 114.20-30 level with several attempts this month to push through the area to no effect, a break could see a quick move higher however the 114.60 level provides possibly a strong level with good stops likely on a push through to the 115.00-20 areas.
  • AUD: Opening around the 0.7215 areas the market slowly pushed into the Tokyo session testing to the 0.7224 in weak trading before dipping from the Tokyo highs to test the lows from yesterday, the market tested the level for 30 minutes or so before starting a slow recovery and pushing steadily through to the 0.7230 level, after a couple of hours flirting with the level the market broke through to move towards the 0.7240 area and holding through to the grey hours, Limited range so far through the month would suggest topside offers renewed into the 73 cents level and likely to see very limited stops through the level into the 0.7340 area with a possibility of mixed interest through that level and into the 0.7360 level before any weakness is likely to appear. Downside bids through the 72 cents level with congestion likely around that level, likely to see some weakness but stronger sentimental and technical buyers for the short term in the 0.7150 level with congestion then continuing for a good distance.
  • EUR: A slow rise higher through the session with the market opening just below the 1.1330 level and edging just above the 1.1340 area into the grey hours, Topside offers light through to the 1.1380 level with some short term sellers likely to be holding in the area through to the 1.1400 level, a push through the 1.1420 level is likely to see some stops appearing and the market likely to be congested through to the 1.1440-60 areas, even a break here is likely to find congestion building into stronger offers through to the 1.1500 area however, while there maybe a two way battle through the area the new range could see limited buying overhauling the offers and the market moving through into the 1.1550 area before running out of steam, downside bids light through to the 1.1300 level with some congestion through the level and weak stop limited through the 1.1280 area and congestion on any attempt to push towards the months lows below 1.1220 with strong bids awaiting.

 

Overnight News

USD/CNY:

Whether it’s a hollow truce or a handshake agreement, the G20 will likely hurt the Yuan CNBC

Trump: If we can’t reach trade deal with China, he will go ahead with $267B

Trump expects to move ahead with boost on China tariffs

NZD:

Damaging labour law changes will hurt NZ Scoop

NZ new residential mortgage lending rises 20% from year ago

AUD/CNY:

Zero hedge: Chinese Fetanyl kingpins laundered over $5BN through Vancouver with suggestion AFP seized property purchased with illicit derived from illicit funds

USD:

US report says China not moving fast enough to stem flow of fentanyl SCMP

Trump: Suggests 10% tariffs may be placed on Iphones, laptops

USD/MXN:

Trump says prepared to close border for a long time

Trump: Wants to see Mexico move migrants back to C. America

Trump: He suspects someone organizing migrant movements

Trump: Looks like Criminal reform bill has the votes

AUD:

Morrison: Govt. to hand down surplus budget before election

EUR:

Italy returns to sell bonds after lukewarm sale

Italy Government may delay citizens income to June ANSA

Italy Govt. confirms core budget measures after talks

Italy Govt. confirms core budget measure after talks

Italy Govt. says decimal point not an issue in budget

Italy Govt. to await expert report before EU talks

Italy’s Conte, Di Maio, Salvini issue joint statement

USD/GBP:

Trump slams Theresa May’s Brexit deal as great for the EU and warns it will harm UK-US trade

Decisive vote to take place on the subject of Brexit on the 11th Dec

 

Today’s Data

Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

NZD       Trade Balance (NZD) Oct A -1295M | C -850M | P -1560M | R -1596M

JPY         Corporate Service Price Y/Y Oct A 1.30% | C 1.20% | P 1.20% | R 1.10%

11:00     GBP       CBI Reported Sales Nov C 10 | P 5

14:00     USD       House Price Index M/M Sep C 0.40% | P 0.30%

14:00     USD       S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Sep C 5.30% | P 5.50%

15:00     USD       Consumer Confidence Index Nov C 136 | P 137.9

 

Harry Hindsight

  • GBP: A slow drift from a high opening for the Cable on a run to the 1.2795 areas before holding and starting a slow but steady rally through to the NYK session, pushing into the grey hours having recaptured the opening levels and after a brief stutter into the London opening renewing the push through to the NYK session testing through the 1.2860 levels before NYK started to sell after the Trump comments for which he had previously stated exactly the same and at the time cleverly pointing out that it wasn’t the way he would go, Cable eventually after several hours of steady selling moved back to the 1.2810 areas and held around the level through to the close.
  • JPY: Moving through the Sydney session was quiet and the Tokyo session started early buying and pushing through to the 113.25 levels before holding the level into the grey hours, a slight blip higher into the London opening tested to the 113.35 level and then held again in the 113.25 through to the NYK session, NYK were slow buyers through the session and pushed the market to the 113.65 to make the highs for the day, and then a slight drift to the close on an uneventful day.
  • AUD: Quiet range through into the Tokyo session and then a steady test through to the 0.7250 levels holding quietly into the NYK session, early London pushed the market to its highs through the morning and the market tested to the 0.7275 areas before dropping back quickly on a rejection of the level, the market stuttered lower through to the NYK session and back to the opening levels, the break through the level into the last hour saw the market drop quickly to the 0.7210 areas for the close.
  • EUR: Opening a touch higher the market dipped from the opening to test to the 1.1330 level before heading into the Tokyo session, after a couple of hours playing with the 1.1325-30 area the market started a slow but steady rise through to the grey hours pushing the 1.1370 and early Europe took the market to the 1.1380’s, London were quick sellers through to the 1.1360 level and holding through to the NYK session, choppy to start with in the NYK session saw the market drop from the 1.1375 area and fall steadily through to the end of London testing back to the early range and finally dipping through into the 1.1325 areas again.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

NZD       Retail Sales Ex Inflation Q/Q Q3 A 0.00% | C 1.00% | P 1.10%

JPY         PMI Manufacturing Nov (P) A 51.8 | C 53 | P 52.9

EUR        German IFO Business Climate Nov A 102 | C 102.3 | P 102.8 | R 102.9

EUR        German IFO Expectations Nov A 98.7 | C 99.3 | P 99.8 | R 99.7

EUR        German IFO Current Assessment Nov A 105.4 | C 105.6 | P 105.9 | R 106.1

GBP       BBA Mortgage Approvals Oct A 39.7K | C 38.9K | P 38.5K | R 38.7K

 

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

 

LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.

Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.

 

If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.

LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.