Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 112.709 | EURUSD 1.13883 | AUDUSD 0.72008 | NZDUSD 68604 | USDCAD 1.33256 | USDCHF 0.99031 | GBPUSD 1.27309 |
LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT
                               Highs | Lows
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.14428 | 1.13914
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 112.695 | 112.24
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.27561 | 1.27056
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99188 | 0.98709
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72231 | 0.71781
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.33378 | 1.32969
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.68979 | 0.68406
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.12995 | 1.12825
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.89752 | 0.89579
EURJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 128.642 | 128.177
For Today
- GBP: Opening lower after a weekend of Brexit news with the market reacting to the negativity initially and the market slowly pushing through the gap on the charts and pushing through to the 1.2755 areas to range quietly between the 1.2740-50 areas to the grey hours, Downside bids into the 1.2660 level with possibly a stronger level into the 1.2630 areas however, a push through of the downside level is likely to see only limited congestion through the sentimental levels and opening the market to a larger dip through to the 1.2500 areas and congestion possible around that area. Topside offers light through the 1.2800 levels and likely to be limited through to the 1.2850 with possibly stronger offers into that level building and through the level with congestion through to the 1.2900 areas.
- JPY: USDJPY slipped from just below the 112.70 closing areas and testing into the low 112.40’s for the Tokyo opening session, a small bounce into the opening touching to the 112.60 level and holding only for the first hour before dropping sharply again testing through to the 112.25 level before slowly recovering through to the 112.50 levels for the move into the grey hours, downside congestion into the 112.00 areas and likely to continue through into the 111.85 area with weak stops on a move through the level, with some congestion through into the 111.50-40 area before weakness reappears to the 111.00. topside offers light through to the 113.00 level with congestion starting to build a push through the 113.25 areas again sees weakness appearing with some opening to the 113.80 level before stronger offers from there and through the 114.00 level.
- AUD: Opening a little lower the market tested through to the 0.7180 areas before rising quickly into the Tokyo session push through the opening 0.7195 level and then filling the gap on a move through the 72 cents level and pushing through to the 0.7220 area to range through to the grey hours in the 0.7210-20 level for a quiet run to the grey hours, downside bids into the 0.7150 likely to be particularly strong and likely to be very congested on any dip through the levels to the 71 cents level. topside offers lightly congested through to the 0.7200 cents level with any move to the 0.7250 areas likely to meet little resistance before opening up for a move higher.
- EUR: A very quiet Euro through to the NFP number with the market ranging through form the opening around the 1.1395 level and slowly moving through the 1.1400 area into the Tokyo session and rising to the 1.1410 level before triggering some minor stops for a test through the 1.1430 level and the rise slowing to peak just through the 1.1440 level, by midsession the markets rise had run its course and the market drifted through the grey hours to hold the 1.1425-30 area, topside offers increasing on a ove through to the 1.1460-1.1500 level with resistance increasing through the 1.1480 areas, congestion through the level with limited stops on a push through the 1.1520 areas opening the market for further limited resistance. Downside bids light through to the 1.1380 level with a mixture of stops and congestion continuing on any dip towards the 1.1320 level and stronger bids starting to appear.
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Overnight News
NZD:
NZ treasury: Business talks add to signs of steady GDP growth
NZ treasury sees downside risks to consumption forecasts
NZ Economists lower forecast for GDP growth – NZIER
EUR:
Italy Dy PM stages mass rally, promises Italians first policies RE6
USD/CNY:
Another potential deterioration in US/China relations coming, US readies charges against Chinese hackers
USD:
Top House Democrats raise prospect of impeachment, jail for Trump AP
Department of Justice calls Donald Trump a felon
CNY:
China Nov. Trade balance $44.74B est. $34.40B
China Nov. Imports rise 3.0% YoY in $ terms est. 14%
China Nov. Exports rise 5.4% in $ terms est. 9.4%
Today’s Data
Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing activity SA QoQ Q3 A 2.00% | P 1.80%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP QoQ Q3 (F) A -0.60% | C -0.50% | P -0.30%
JPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Deflator YoY Q3 (F) A -0.30% | C -0.30% | P -0.30%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Current account (JPY) Oct A 1.21T | C 1.29T | P 1.33T
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Home loans MoM Oct A 2.20% | C -0.50% | P -1.00%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Eco watchers survey current Nov A 51.0 | C 49.5 | P 49.5
0645Â Â Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment rate Nov C 2.50% | P 2.50%
0700Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German trade balance Oct C 17.2B | P 17.6B
0930Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Visible trade balance (GBP) Oct C -10.5B | P -9.7B
0930Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial production MoM Oct C 0.10% | P 0.00%
0930 Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial production YoY Oct C -0.20% | P 0.00%
0930Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production MoM Oct C 0.00% | P 0.20%
0930 Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production YoY Oct C 0.00% | P 0.50%
0930 Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction output MoM Oct C -0.40% | P 1.70%
0930Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP MoM Oct C 0.10% | P 0.00%
0930Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Index of services 3m/3m Oct C 0.30% | P 0.40%
0930Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Sentix investor confidence Dec C 8.4 | P 8.8
1315Â Â Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing starts Nov C 198K | P 206K
1330Â Â Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building permits MoM Oct C -0.20% | P 0.40%
Weekend News
AUD:
Prepare contingency plans, OECD warns coalition government
RBA’s Kent sees borrowing costs rising as Fed moves to neutral – BBG
CNY:
China ramps up pressure ahead of Huawei bail verdict MEA
China’s Copper, Iron ore import slum as economic growth slows
NZD:
NZ manufacturing volumes fall for second quarter
Manufacturing volumes fall 1.6% after revised 1.7% in 2Q
CAD/USD/CNY:
Canadian prosecutor lays out US allegation against Huawei CFO DJ
China summons US envoy over CFO Meng Wauzhou BBG
Huawei’s unofficial Skycom allegedly helped defy sanctions BBG
China says US should withdraw arrest warrant for Huawei executive RTRS
USD/CNY:
US says 1st March hard deadline for trade deal with China – RTRS
EUR:
Frances Month of protest seen smacking economic activity BBG
Macron to address after latest violent yellow vest protests in Paris
Brussels police arrest hundreds in yellow vest riot RTRS
Macron to blame for French protests, Italy’s Salvini says – RTRS
Merkel ally Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer elected head of Germany’s CDU
GBP:
May sticks with Brexit vote as demands to renegotiate mount – BBG
MXN:
Lopez Obrador says Mexico to build an $8B refinery
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Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Drifting from the opening highs through the Asian session dropping back from the 1.2795 levels and moving in a tight channel through to the grey hours testing the 1.2765 level, ranging through the grey hours moving around that level the market dipped further on the opening in London dropping initially through to the 1.2750 level before moving a second time to test to the 1.2735 area, a slow rise through to the NYK session saw the market moving towards the 1.2780 areas and an hour in saw the market testing to the opening highs before slowly slipping lower with USD moving higher on the weaker hourly earnings numbers and Cable weakening under Brexit concerns, the end of London saw the market dipping through to test towards the 1.2710 level before recovering a little for the move to the close.
- JPY: Opening around the 112.70 level the market moved quietly in a tight range around the level through into early Tokyo before starting a slow rise through to the 112.90 levels before slipping slowly back to run into the grey hours holding the 112.80 level, the market remained fairly static through the session holding into the NYK session before dropping back on the early numbers ignoring the average hourly earnings and concentrating on the weaker employment numbers, the market drifted through to the close with minor pushes through the 112.60 level and finishing the day almost unchanged.
- AUD: Fairly quiet day for the Oz with the market drifting from the opening in Tokyo testing through to the 0.7220 levels from the 0.7230 areas, late in the session the Oz recovered pushing through to the 0.7240 level to make the highs before slipping slowly through to the London opening pushing to the 0.7210 level, London were quick buyers and the market pushed back towards the 0.7230 level and dipping back into the NYK session pushing to the 0.7205 level and quickly rising back to he opening levels on the opening, holding and testing lightly to the highs for the second time the market dropped from the highs quickly to set the lows just through the 72 cents area returning to the level again into the close having recovered a little.
- EUR: A slow steady rise through the day, with Asia being the quiet bit in comparison to the rest, opening around the 1.1375 level the Euro continued to hold in a very tight range through into mid Tokyo before testing to its early high however that was just a slight nudge through the 1.1380 level before drifting back to move towards the grey hours trying the downside, to push the 1.1360 level however, although the range widened it wasn’t until the NYK opening that the market moved testing quickly through to the 1.1415 level in a quick move dipping quickly back to the 1.1375 level to range between the low and the 1.1400 areas ranging through to the end of the London session before again pushing higher to the 1.1425 areas before slipping back for the close.
Yesterday’s Premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Overall household spending YoY Oct A -0.30% | C 1.20% | P -1.60%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Labour cash earnings A 1.50% | C 1.00% | P 1.10% | R 0.80%
JPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Leading index CI Oct (P) A | C 104.8 | P 104.3
EURÂ Â Â Â Â German Industrial production MoM Oct A -0.50% | C 0.30% | P 0.20% | R 0.10%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Foreign currency reserves Nov A 749B | P 753B
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone GDP QoQ A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net change in employment Nov A 94.1K | C 10.0K | P 11.2K
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment rate Nov A 5.60% | C 5.80% | P 5.80%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Change in Non-Farm payrolls Nov A 155K | C 200K | P 250K | R 237K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment rate Nov 3.70% | C 3.70% | P 3.70%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average hourly earnings MoM Nov A 0.20% | C 0.30% | P 0.20% | R 0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale inventories MoM Oct (F) A 0.80% | C 0.70% | P 0.70%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â U. of Mich. Sentiment Dec (P) A 97.5 | C 97 | P 97.5
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