Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 108.672 | EURUSD 1.1413 | AUDUSD 0.72018 | NZDUSD 0.6805 | USDCAD 1.32664 | USDCHF 0.98782 | GBPUSD 1.28608 |
LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT
                               Highs | Lows
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.14150 | 1.13962
USDJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 108.710 | 108.376
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.28840 | 1.28249
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.98842 | 0.98725
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72070 | 0.7189
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.32800 | 1.32551
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.68279 | 0.68054
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.12784 | 1.12613
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88894 | 0.88608
EURJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 124.053 | 123.53
For Today
- GBP: A bit like the BBC weather reports, always talk of a storm and at least snow but in reality nothing appears, and so with the market very little movement considering the import of the decisions made and not made, opening around the 1.2860 level the market tried several times to move beyond the 1.2870 level running repeatedly into offers and then slipping lower on the Tokyo opening to hold the 1.2850 for a couple of hours before eventually dipping through to the 1.2830 level and a long slow grind back above the 1.2850 level for the move into the grey hours, congestion to the downside into the 1.2800 areas and increasing on any attempt to the 1.2750 areas however, any strong news on Brexit or PM May could see the downside blasted out of the way with possibly 1.2500 likely to be stronger in bids then any where else but no guarantees, topside offers into and through the 1.2900 level and weak stops possibly through the 1.2920 areas but likely to see congestion through the 1.2950 and increasing on any move to the 1.3000 levels with possibly a set of strong offers around that level.
- JPY: Opening around the 108.70 areas the market held steadily until the Tokyo opening dipping through the first couple of hours to make the lows just below the 108.40 areas before recovering and holding quietly around the 108.50 areas for a quiet move to the grey hours, Downside bids likely to be building around the 108.00 areas and through to the 107.80 areas with weak stops possibly below however, Japanese retail are likely to be starting to rebuild there carry trades and this is likely to be supportive for the USDJPY in general, a break below the 107.50 level however, could cause the downside to open and the 106.50 areas is likely to be vulnerable, topside offers light through to the 109.00 level with some weak offers into the level and the market likely to see stops on a move through the 109.30 areas and opening the market to a quick move through to the 110.00 area with weak stops appearing on a push through the 110.40 level.
- AUD: Dull dull dull, the Oz held very quietly around the 72 cents levels rising to the highs just short of the 0.7208 level before drifting quietly through into the Tokyo session pushing through the figure level to test to the 0.7190 level and a slow grind back towards the 72 cents area for a quiet move into the grey hours, Downside bids through to the 0.7150 level are likely to be limited and the downside still remains vulnerable to any strong selling 0.7100 level likely to be a stronger point however, that is very speculative and the only real hope is that carry trade buying helps, topside offers still remains around current levels and one suspects weak stops have disappeared and offers increase through the 0.7240 level with strong congestion likely to show up all the way through to very strong offers into 73 cents.
- EUR: No different to the other pairs the Euro held around the 1.1410 level through into the Tokyo session before dipping to the 1.1400 level and spending a few hours there before moving back to the early holding area for the move into the grey hours, Topside offers through to the 1.1500 level with the market likely to see some weak stops on a push through the 1.1530 levels however, while there maybe a little room through the area the 1.1580 area is likely to see stronger offers through to the 1.1620 area capping any rally, downside bids light through to the 1.1450 level with congestion continuing through to the 1.1400 likely to be light with limited stops running into further congestion on any moves towards the 1.1350 area.
Overnight News
EUR:
Euro falls as Draghi sharpens traders focus on European risks BBG
Shares of Italian banks slide as ECB calls for bad loans’ protection WSJ
EU Commission to set up preparations for no deal Brexit – Juncker
USD:
Leading hawk Esther George urges Fed to be patient on rates BBG
Warning to investors: Powell is no Greenspan WSJ
Grassley says Lighthizer saw little progress in China talks – CNBC
GBP:
UK Parliament rejects May’s Brexit deal 432-202 the largest defeat since Cromwell
Cabinet deeply divided over Brexit as May’s future hangs in the balance Tel
May is incapable of admitting error or defeat even in the most humiliating circumstances Tel
Brexit weary UK consumers tighten belts over holiday period – BBG
NZD:
NZ house price inflation slows as Auckland values drop QV
Retail card spending falls 2.3% MoM total card spending falls 1.9%
MXN:
El Chapo paid $100M bribe to ex Mexican president Enrique Pena Nieto NYPost
AUD:
Key Labour policies will hit richest Liberal seats hardest SMH
Australian confidence plunges as property woes weigh on economy falling 4.7% MoM BBG
CNY:
Owning US government bonds like holding a ticking time bomb CHD
NZD:
RBNZ rate cut odds rise to 50% mirroring expectations for RBA
JPY:
BoJ is said to cut inflation forecast on cheaper oil – BBG
Today’s Data
Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Machine orders MoM Nov A 0.00% | C 3.10% | P 7.60%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Domestic CGPI YoY A 1.50% | C 1.80% | P 2.30%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tertiary industry index MoM Nov A -0.30% | C -0.50% | 1.90% | R 2.20%
0700Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI MoM Dec (F) C 0.10% | P 0.10%
0700Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI YoY Dec (F) C 1.70% | P 1.70%
0930Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI MoM Dec C 0.20% | P 0.20%
0930Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI YoY Dec C 2.20% | P 2.30%
0930Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Core CPI YoY Dec C 1.80% | P 1.80%
0930Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RPI MoM Dec C 0.50% | P 0.00%
0930Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RPI YoY Dec C 2.80% | P 3.20%
0930Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI input MoM Dec C -3.00% | P -2.30%
0930Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Input YoY Dec C 4.60% | P 5.60%
0930Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output MoM Dec C 0.10% | P 0.10%
0930Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output YoY Dec C 2.90% | P 3.10%
0930Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Core MoM P 0.10%
0930 Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Core YoY P 2.40%
0930Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â House price index YoY Nov C 3.00% | P 2.70%
0930Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BBA Loans for House purchase Dec C 39.0K | P 39.4K
1330Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail sales advance MoM Dec C 0.20% | P 0.20%
1330Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail sales ex auto MoM Dec C 0.20% | P 0.20%
1330Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Import price index MoM Dec C -1.30% | P -1.60%
1500Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business inventories Nov P 0.60%
1500Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAHB Housing market index Jan C 57 | P 56
1530Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude oil inventories P -1.7M
1900Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Federal Reserve Beige Book
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Early optimism for May’s Brexit deal waned the deeper into the day the market moved however, Asia were more optimistic and from the opening a steady trend higher saw the market moving off the 1.2860 level and slowly testing through into early Tokyo pushing through the 1.2900 level and topping out around the 1.2915 areas before drifting into the grey hours, the move to the grey hours again saw the top being tested, that was the final attempt and the drifting began in earnest with London slowly sold through to the 1.2830 levels and then ranged around the 1.2850 areas through to the NYK session, as the debates began in the UK Parliament so the market reacted and while the market knew the result there was always a chance things could go wrong trading down to the 1.2700 level, in the end it was a landslide defeat for the government 202-432 the largest since 1924, knee jerk test through to the 1.2670 level before snapping quickly back and running quickly to the 1.2850 area again and pushing eventually to the 1.2890 areas and finishing the day around the 1.2870 area.
- JPY: With the Japanese back from a long weekend the market saw constant buying from early Tokyo to push in a tight channelled rise through to just before the grey hours testing the 108.60 level from the 108.15 lows, a quick push saw the market top around the 108.75 level and the move into the grey hours holding the level before early London slowly sent the market back to the 108.50 area, the move into the NYK session saw some choppy movement before the official opening and again a repeat tight channelled rise to test just through the previous high and the end of London leaving the market open to the vagaries of a UK vote, a dip into the number saw the market moving off the 108.40 level to push back to finish the day just off the highs.
- AUD: Mixed day with the market generally trading around the 72 cents day, weaker JPY helped early Oz rise through to close to the highs for the day on the move into the Tokyo session, testing for the first time above the 0.7220 level the market was unable to pick out any weak stops and drifted through to the grey hours drifting around the 72 cents level, the move through to the grey hours saw the market again pushing through towards the 0.7220 area this time getting deeper into the area but eventually running into the London open and strong sellers appearing to quickly set the market back to the figure area, the move through to the early NYK players saw a quick sell off to the 0.7190 areas and the range a little more choppy if 20 pips could be called that however, again any rallies seem to be met with strong selling appearing to push the market ever lower through to the vote in the UK which saw the market lift off its lows just above the 0.7180 level to recover to the 72 cents level again and hold quietly to the close.
- EUR: A slow rise through to early Tokyo pushing from the opening around the 1.1470 level and then slowly pushing to the 1.1490 level and the high of the day, the market then slowly drifted through to the grey hours and the early London sellers appeared and the market dipped to the 1.1455 level for the opening, a quick selloff saw the Euro quickly holding the 1.1425 level and ranging quietly through into the NYK session with only managing the 1.1415 level before rising slowly in NYK to push the 1.1450 level for the last time, with debates in UK Parliament of import to the EU the Euro again came under pressure before the vote testing through the 1.1400 levels and holding the 1.1385 level, the result out the Euro managed a meagre rally back to the 1.1415 level to finish quietly just below that level.
Yesterday’s Premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Japan Money stock M2+CD YoY Dec A 2.40% | C 2.40% | P 2.30%
JPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Machine tool orders YoY Dec (P) A -18.3% | P -17.00%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Nov A 15.1B | C 13.2B | P 12.5B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Empire state manufacturing index Jan A 3.9 | C 11.6 | P 10.9
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI MoM Dec A -0.20% | C 0.00% | P 0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI YoY Dec A 2.50% | C 2.50% | P 2.50%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core MoM Dec -0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core YoY Dec A 2.70% | C 2.70% | P 2.70%
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