Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 109.092 | EURUSD 1.13921 | AUDUSD 0.71677 | NZDUSD 0.67862 | USDCAD 1.3256 | USDCHF 0.99032 | GBPUSD 1.28802|

LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.14007 | 1.1379

USDJPY                 109.134 | 108.832

GBPUSD               1.28899 | 1.28646

USDCHF               0.99196 | 0.9896

AUDUSD              0.71756 | 0.7150

USDCAD               1.32867 | 1.32507

NZDUSD               0.67808 | 0.67416

EURCHF                1.12931 | 1.12791

EURGBP               0.88512 | 0.88406

EURJPY                 124.363 | 124.024

For Today

  • GBP: Another quiet session for Cable with the early buyers only able to push the Cable towards the 1.2890 level before Tokyo moved in and pushed back to the opening level around the 1.2880 areas, the market continued to range around that level through to deep into the session before slipping through to the 1.2770 areas and ranging through to the grey hours around the level. downside congestion into the 1.2800 areas and increasing on any attempt to the 1.2750 areas however, any strong news on Brexit or PM May still a concern with further deep moves a prospect, very little other than sentimental buyers through to the 2500 and likely to be stronger in bids than anywhere else but no guarantees, topside offers into and through the 1.2900 level and weak stops possibly through the 1.2920 areas but likely to see congestion through the 1.2950 and increasing on any move to the 1.3000 levels with possibly a set of strong offers around that level.
  • JPY: Opening just above the 109.00 areas the market managed a brief visit above the 109.10 level before early Tokyo moved in and the market slowly slipped through the figure to test to the 108.85 levels in the early part of Tokyo, the market recovered eventually to above the 109.00 level and spent a few hours slowly trading around the level to the grey hours, Downside bids likely to be building around the 108.00 areas and through to the 107.80 level with weak stops possibly below however, Japanese retail are likely to be continue to rebuild their carry trades and this is likely to be supportive for the USDJPY in general, a break below the 107.50 level however, could cause the downside to open and the 106.50 areas is likely to be vulnerable, topside offers a little stronger through 109.00 level with some weak offers into 109.20 remaining and the market likely to see stops on a move through the 109.30 areas and opening the market to a quick move through to the 110.00 area with weak stops appearing on a push through the 110.40 level.
  • AUD: Housing issues still remain at the forefront of the minds local’s and having opened around the 0.7170 areas Tokyo pushed through to the 0.7160 level from the opening, initially stalling but as the market matured the sellers reappeared and 0.7150 was tested before slowly moving into the grey hours, congestion in the current levels and likely to continue through the 71 cents level before a mixture of weak stops and congestion run through to the 0.7050 areas and possibly opening up the potential for a larger downside move however, expect sentimental 00, 50, to be tough to move through for the moment. topside offers still remain around current levels and one suspects weak stops have disappeared and offers increase through the 0.7240 level with strong congestion likely to show up all the way through to very strong offers into 73 cents.
  • EUR: Pre-Tokyo buying saw the Euro rise slightly from the 1.1380 opening level before holding steady around the 1.1400 areas through into the Tokyo session however, after a couple of hours trading quietly around the level the market slipped steadily lower through to the grey hours and settling around the 1.1380 level awaiting some kind of impetus to open the downside, Topside offers congested through the 1.1420 level for the moment but expect some weak stops to appear for a move to the stronger sentimental area around the 1.1440-60 area and while there may be a patch of weakness the market builds to stronger offers on any push for the 1.1500 level. downside bids in the current areas however, this congestion is likely to continue in a fashion all the way down to the stronger 1.1280-1.1300 strong bids.

 

Overnight News

CNY:

Stealth easing spreads in China property as debt risks mount Nomura

PBoC to inject net 380B Yuan, a day after record move

Chinese premier vows measures to support the economy

GBP:

US homebuilder sentiment rises from lowest levels since 2015

USD/CNY:

US in criminal probe of China’s Huawei Report

GBP:

PM May survives confidence vote after Brexit humiliation 325-306 in line with Conservative/DUP majority

 

 

Today’s Data

Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

GBP       RICS House Price balance Dec A -19% | C -13% | -11%

AUD       Home Loans MoM Nov A -0.90% | C -1.40% | P 2.20% | R 2.10%

1000       EUR        Eurozone CPI MoM Dec (F) C -0.20% | P -0.20%

1000       EUR        Eurozone CPI YoY Dec (F) C 1.90% | P 1.90%

1000       EUR        Eurozone CPI Core YoY Dec (F) C 1.00% | P 1.00%

1330       USD       Housing starts Dec C 1.25M | P 1.25M

1330       USD       Building permits Dec C 1.30M | P 1.328M

1330       USD       Initial Jobless claims C 218K | P 216K

1330       USD       Philadelphia Fed business outlook Jan C 10.1 | P 9.4

1530       USD       Natural gas storage P -91B

 

Harry Hindsight

  • GBP: A quiet steady day with yet another vote in Parliament to come however, with Conservative/DUP having a slight majority the confidence vote was only likely to go one way and the vote ended up 325-306, opening around the 1.2860 area the market moved quietly into the Tokyo session dipping to the 1.2850 level and eventually through to make the lows for the day around the 1.2825 level and starting a slow steady climb through to the grey hours recovering the day, from there the market was very limited with the market pinned in a 1.2840-90 level through to the close, several attempts above the 1.2890 level ran into the same offers each time and day trading could not have been easier bouncing off the 1.2840’s and dropping from the 1.2890 level repeatedly through to a quiet close just off the highs.
  • JPY: Opening around the 108.70 level the market drifted to the Tokyo session and immediately started a slow steady drive lower pushing to the day’s lows into the 108.30 areas then a quick move to the 108.50 levels and traded quietly from there through to the grey hours, a little selling in the first hour saw a minor dip before early London moved in and pushed the market back to the lower end of the pre-Tokyo range stalling in the first hour of London the market started then to move higher through to the 108.80 level and ranged tightly around the level unable to push beyond the 108.90 area through into the NYK session, with US numbers sporadically released with the government shutdown continuing the market remained mired around the 108.80 level for several hours before starting a steady rise in the last couple of hours to push through the 109.00 level eventually and jumping to the 109.20 for the highs of the day.
  • AUD: A quiet Asian session for the Oz with the market opening just above the 72 cents levels and holding through to the Tokyo session before dipping through to the 0.7190 level and a slow rise back to the opening levels, the move into the grey hours saw some light buying and the market reaching the high of the day testing to the 0.7210 areas, from the London opening the selling appeared and a steady drop through the first couple of hours testing through to the 0.7160 level and the bids before slowly rising into the NYK opening with limited movement the market tested towards the 0.7190 in late London before the market closed drifting a little.
  • EUR: Very limited day for the Euro with the market roughly trading around the 1.1400 levels, opening around the 1.1410 level the market dipped through to the 1.1400 areas in early Tokyo and struggled through to the grey hours rising back to the opening levels before moving into the London session and seeing early buyers testing the resistance into the 1.1420 level and failing the level steadily dropping back off triggering those early buyers to cut there longs and test the support through the 1.1380 level and as with the topside struggle to break lower, the market moved through to the NYK session returning to the 1.1400 level and traded quietly through to the close.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

JPY         Machine orders MoM Nov A 0.00% | C 3.10% | P 7.60%

JPY         Domestic CGPI YoY A 1.50% | C 1.80% | P 2.30%

JPY         Tertiary industry index MoM Nov A -0.30% | C -0.50% | 1.90% | R 2.20%

EUR        German CPI MoM Dec (F) A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%

EUR        German CPI YoY Dec (F) A 1.70% | C 1.70% | P 1.70%

GBP       CPI MoM Dec A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%

GBP       CPI YoY Dec A 2.10% | C 2.20% | P 2.30%

GBP       Core CPI YoY Dec A 1.90% | C 1.80% | P 1.80%

GBP       RPI MoM Dec A 0.40% | C 0.50% | P 0.00%

GBP       RPI YoY Dec A 2.70% | C 2.80% | P 3.20%

GBP       PPI input MoM Dec A -1.00% | C -3.00% | P -2.30%

GBP       PPI Input YoY Dec A 3.70% | C 4.60% | P 5.60% | R 5.30%

GBP       PPI Output MoM Dec A -0.30% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%

GBP       PPI Output YoY Dec A 2.50% | C 2.90% | P 3.10% | R 3.00%

GBP       PPI Output Core MoM A 0.20% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%

GBP       PPI Output Core YoY A 2.50% | C 2.40% | P 2.40%

GBP       House price index YoY Nov A 2.80% | C 3.00% | P 2.70%

USD       Import price index MoM Dec A -1.00% | C -1.30% | P -1.60% | R -1.90%

USD       NAHB Housing market index Jan A 58 | C 57 | P 56

USD       Crude oil inventories A -2.7M | C -1.4M | P -1.7M

USD       Federal Reserve Beige Book

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

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LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.