Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.609 | EURUSD 1.13806 | AUDUSD 0.71413 | NZDUSD 0.67925 | USDCAD 1.3343 | USDCHF 0.99501 | GBPUSD 1.30682 |
LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT
                               Highs | Lows
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.13914 | 1.13778
USDJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 109.643 | 109.44
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.30947 | 1.30672
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99557 | 0.99383
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.71665 | 0.71039
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.33532 | 1.33295
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.68069 | 0.67724
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.13271 | 1.13186
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.87118 | 0.86965
EURJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 124.864 | 124.598
For Today
- GBP: Pushing slowly from the opening around the 1.3070 levels the market struggled through into the Tokyo session testing through the 1.3080 level and a final push during the Tokyo fix saw the market make it to the 1.3095 levels failing and drifting through the session to the 1.3070 areas into the grey hours. Topside offers into the 1.3100 levels more sentimental than anything else and likely to see top pickers appearing however, a push through the 1.3120 level will see weak stops appearing and the market able to run towards the 1.3150 level with likely similar results in that area, decent stops are likely to start appearing on any through to the 1.3180 areas and leading into the 1.3200 level with break out stops appearing and the market4 congested lightly until closer too the 1.3300 area. Downside bids light back through the 1.3000 level with only light congestion to contend with weak stops on a move back to the 1.2950-00 areas with stronger bids likely to appear, that is unless something happens.
- JPY: Range bound day through from the opening with a minor attempt higher from the Tokyo opening before dropping back again into the Tokyo fix from the highs of the day near 109.65, the market traded quietly from there dipping to the lows around 109.45 level to set the range for the day and slowly rising to towards the 109.60 level into the grey hours. Limited bids into the 109.20-00 areas will open the downside with weak stops mingled with congestive bids on a move through the 108.80 level with stronger bids not suspected until through the 108.20 areas. Topside offers into the 109.80-110.00 level with a push through the level likely to open a stronger move through to the 110.50 area and lighter congestion then to the 111.00 level.
- AUD: Stronger mover for the day with a slight rise from the opening to push into the Tokyo session testing towards the 0.7150 level, employment numbers saw the market quickly rise through to the 0.7165 area in the usual knee jerk reaction the fall back from the highs was just as sharp as the details filtered through and the market triggered weak stops through to the 0.7130 level and continued slowly through to the 0.7105 levels for the move into the grey hours. Topside is likely to see strong congestion through the 0.7180 level and into the 0.7220 areas where the market has really refused to push through over the past two months, a test to the 0.7240 areas could see strong stops meeting the usual offers around the sentimental 0.7250 area however the market would appear to be weak beyond that level and open to a push to the 73 cents level. downside bids light through to the 0.710 areas and building through to 0.7080 however, a dip through will likely see stops appearing and very little to stop the market dipping into the 70 cents level.
- EUR: Euro’s was stuck in a quiet range again rising from the opening just above the 1.1380 level and pushing gently through the 1.1390 level to set the range and then holding all the way through to the grey hours around the 1.1385 levels. Congestion remains to the downside and the market seems to really like this 1.1280-1.1480 area having traversed it multiple times over the past 3 months, for the moment any move to the downside is likely to see stronger bids moving in around the 1.1350 level and continuing through to the 1.1280 areas possible strong stops through the level could see the market opening as new lows for the year appear however, the downside still remains bids on any further selling, topside offers seem to be weakly congested until the market moves back above the 1.1400 level with any movement towards the 1.1450 area likely to find increased selling appearing, a push through will not alleviate the situation with the likelihood of stronger offers on any attempt to push for the 1.1480-1.1500 levels.
Overnight News
CNY:
PBoC unveils first perpetual bond amid capital pressure
GBP:
MP Rees Mogg arch Brexiteer is more in favour of an organised Brexit without a backstop
USD:
White house says US could see zero growth this quarter with shutdown
US Industries plead for end to US metals tariffs
Today’s Data
Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change Dec A 21.6K | C 18.1K | P 37K
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Dec A 5.00% | C 5.10% | P 5.10%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Part Time Employment Change Dec A 24.6K | P 43.4K
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Jan (P) A 50 | P 52.6
0815Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Manufacturing PMI Jan (P) C 50 | P 49.7
0815Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Services PMI Jan (P) C 50.5 | P 49
0830Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Manufacturing PMI Jan (P) C 51.4 | P 51.5
0830Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Services PMI Jan (P) C 52.2 | P 51.8
0900Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Jan (P) C 51.3 | P 51.4
0900Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services PMI Jan (P) C 51.5 | P 51.2
1245Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Rate Decision C 0.00% | P 0.00%
1330Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (JAN 19) C 215K | P 213K
1445Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â US Manufacturing PMI Jan (P) C 53.5 | P 53.8
1445Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â US Services PMI Jan (P) C 54.1 | P 54.4
1500Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Leading Index Dec C -0.10% | P 0.20%
1530Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P -81B
1600Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P -2.7M
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Quiet Asian session with the Cable drifting a little, one brief rally mid-session to push the 1.2965 level but dropping back to push through to the 1.2945 level, the move into the grey hours saw the market starting a steady recovery and pushing to the early London testing 1.2970, London opening saw the market dipping back to the lows talk of soften of Brexit attitudes saw the market move quickly through to the 1.2985 levels before running into some offers and the market dropping back a little after the CBI trends number however, confirmation that Rees Mogg was seriously thinking about the Brexit option that May put over saw the market rising quickly through to the 1.3040 level on the move into NYK pausing as the market moved through the offers and eventually breaking higher this time with less impetus to test the 1.3080 levels and hold quietly through to the close drifting off just a touch.
- JPY: Opening quietly the market held around the 109.30 levels through into the Tokyo session before slowly rising through to the 109.70 level into mid-session, no change for the interest rate and very little changing in policy saw the market top at the 109.80 level and then drift through to the grey hours, the move saw the market holding around the level deep into the London session and only once the NYK session began did the market move again higher trading steadily through to touch the 110.00 level holding quietly before reversing and descending to the 109.60 level triggering some weak stops on the move through and testing to the 109.40 before moving to the close retracing to the 109.60 level for a quiet run to the close.
- AUD: Very quiet session throughout, with the Oz opening around the 0.7120 areas and moving into the Tokyo session seeing light AUDJPY carry trade buying helping the Oz through to the 0.7140 level and then trading around that level through out the day with a minor move towards the lows into the NYK session but recover slowly through to London close and then holding quietly to finish just off the highs of the day.
- EUR: Moving through the Asian session rising slowly from the opening 1.1360 levels the market pushed into the grey hours making the early highs just above the 1.1370 level, early east Europeans were quick to sell the market back through to the London opening and testing into the low 1.1350’s to hold deep into the NYK session, with an organised Brexit being talked about Euro’s started to play catch up with the Cable and quickly rose through to the 1.1390 level to top around the 1.1395 area and struggling for a time before drifting to the close.
Yesterday’s Premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Q/Q Q4 A 0.10% | C 0.00% | P 0.90%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Q4 A 1.90% | C 1.80% | P 1.90%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Leading Index M/M Dec A -0.21% | P -0.09%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (JPY) Dec A -0.18T | C -0.29T | P -0.49T | R -0.49T
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â BoJ Rate Decision A -0.10% | C -0.10% | P -0.10%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â All Industry Activity Index M/M Nov A -0.30% | C -0.40% | P 1.90%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CBI Trends Total Orders Jan A -1 | C 4 | P 8
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Nov A -0.90% | C -0.70% | P 0.30% | R 0.20%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M Nov A -0.60% | C -0.40% | P 0.00% | R -0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index M/M Nov A 0.40% | C 0.20% | P 0.30%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Consumer Confidence Jan (A) A -8 | C -6.5 | P -6.2
*US numbers affected by Government shutdown so may not appear when they are supposed to.
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