Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.549 | EURUSD 1.14064 | AUDUSD 0.71801 | NZDUSD 0.68396 | USDCAD 1.32165 | USDCHF 0.99327 | GBPUSD 1.31992 |
LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT
                               Highs | Lows
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.14259 | 1.14002
USDJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 109.579 | 109.267
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.32113 | 1.31854
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99358 | 0.99179
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72038 | 0.7174
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.32251 | 1.32031
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.68726 | 0.68306
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.13312 | 1.13258
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.86543 | 0.86369
EURJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 125.036 | 124.723
For Today
- GBP: A reasonably quiet session with the market a little wide from the opening with both Sydney and Wellington out for the day testing through to the 1.3210 areas before slowly slipping back through the figure area testing to the 1.3190 areas but remaining close to that level. Topside offers congested through the 1.3200 level into the 1.3220-30 areas with possible weak stops on a break through opening the market to the 1.3280-00 areas with very little suspected on a move to the 1.3250 area, a move through the 1.3300 level will likely see congestion limited through the sentimental levels and possibly a slow grind through to the 1.3400 areas. Downside bids light back through to the sentimental levels with 1.3100 likely to show some stronger bids however, weak stops quickly open through to the 1.3050 level, whether the bids are stronger remains to be seen and once would guess the market needs time in the years new range.
- JPY: Opening around the 109.55 levels and holding through to the opening in Tokyo before dropping through to the 109.30 levels over the course of a couple of hours touch through to the 109.27 areas before running through to hold around the 109.40 level. Light bids in the current area will likely continue through to the 109.00-108.80 areas with congestion likely to be mixed with some weak stops mixed in, any move lower is likely to meet continual congestion before increasing into the 108.00 level, weak stops on any dip through the 107.80 level is likely to find stronger buyers appearing. Topside offers through the 109.80 level are likely to have been replaced and continuing through the 110.00 level with quick stops appearing on a move through the 110.20-30 areas and opening a quick move through to the 110.60 level and likely increasing on any attempt to the 111.00 levels.
- AUD: Weakening USD saw the Oz moving slowly higher through into the Tokyo session testing through to the 0.7200 areas and ranging around the level in a very quiet session, congestion on a move through the 72 cents and likely to continue lightly through to the 0.7240 areas and then increasing through to the 0.7260 level, some weakness just through the level will likely see increasing offers continuing through to the 73 cents areas. Downside bids light through to the 71 cents area before increasing bids start to increase with weak stops possibly increasing on a dip through to the 0.7080 areas, a break through the 0.7070 level will possibly see weak stops joined by larger stops and the market then opening to some weakness to the 70 cents areas.
- EUR: Euro’s edged higher through the session with limited volume through the day, having opened around the 1.1405 areas the market topped out around the 1.1425 level before drifting a little for the move into the grey hours, Congestion in every direction, with the market likely to see congestive offers likely to continue through to the 1.1480 level before the market starts to see stronger offers moving in, any push for the 1.1500 level is likely to see very strong offers appearing and even if it breaks the weak stops are likely to run into continuing congestion. Downside bids congested in the same manner as the topside with the congestion through to the 1.1350 level particularly strong and even through the level the market is likely to see strong bids reappearing on any attempt to push through the 1.1300-1.1280 areas.
Overnight News
USD:
You want to invade everybody: Trump talked military option in Venezuela with Linsey Graham AXS
Trump: There is less than 50-50 chance lawmakers make deal on border security he can accept WSJ
Trump: Sceptical he would accept any congressional border deal WSJ
Trump: I personally don’t think they’ll be able to strike an acceptable compromise WSJ
Trump: Bipartisan group of lawmakers starts negotiations this week WSJ
Trump: We’re going to have border security and we’re going have a wall WSJ
Trump: If lawmakers fail to provide sufficient wall money, he is open to declaring a national emergency WSJ
Trump: Another government shutdown is certainly an option WSJ
Trump: This is a major national emergency, this is horrific situation taking place
Trump: Calls Citizenship for some immigrants brought illegally to US as children a separate subject to be taken up WSJ
Trump: Dismisses suggestion he would accept less than %5.7B in border wall funds, I doubt it, I have to do it right WSJ
CNY:
China’s December industrial profits fall for 2nd straight month full yr up 10.3%
Today’s Data
Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Corporate Service Price Y/Y Dec A 1.10% | C 1.20% | P 1.20%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â BoJ meeting minutes
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone M3 Money Supply Y/Y Dec P 3.70%
Weekend News
World:
The world economy just can’t escape its low growth, low inflation rut WSJ
Asia:
Trade war clouds earnings outlook, Asian tech suppliers brace for prolonged downturn -NIKKEI
GBP/EUR:
Juncker says Customs Union price to pay for Backstop Guardian
Blow for May as Ireland stresses it will not yield on Brexit backstop Guardian
USD/KRW:
Trump’s spat with ally S. Korea raises fears of US pullback BBG
AUD:
Third minister quits in pre-election blow to Australian PM BBG
GBP:
UK PM told cabinet ministers she will rule out no deal The Sun
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening and quietly moving to the Tokyo session rising quickly at that point from the 1.3070 levels to push quickly through to the 1.3125 area before holding the 1.3100 on the quick dip, the market slowly pushed through the session testing the topside again and moving into the grey hours holding around the 1.3130 level, light selling through the grey hours saw the market pushing back through to the 1.3100 level and limited selling in the London session continuing through the early morning eventually running out of steam and starting a slow rise pushing into the NYK session back above the 1.3100 level, with Brexit chatter tightly controlled chatter about removing the backstop for other concessions PM May seemed to suggest one thing while the others continued to agree while suggesting this or that as an addendum, NYK were stronger and continuous buyers pushing through the congestive areas and forcing the market through to the 1.3200 level with a brief hold before rising to the 1.3220 and slipping back in the last hour to the close just below the figure selling.
- JPY: Opening around the 109.60 areas the market dipped initially testing into the low 109.50’s before Tokyo moved in and quickly took the market through to the 109.70 areas and a steady rise through the day to move through to range around the 109.80 levels through into the London session with very little to surprise, the move into the early NYK period saw the market highs and testing through to the 109.95 level before dropping quickly back through to range around the opening levels and dipping through to the 109.50 area for the move to the close to make the lows.
- AUD: Very quiet through the Asian session opening around the 0.7090 areas dipping through to make the lows just above the 0.7080 levels and rising in early morning in Tokyo to push through the 71 cents levels and topping out just above the 0.7110 areas, before drifting off and holding the 71 cents levels through deep into the London session before starting a slow rise through to the 0.7120 level and the NYK opening, and a slow steady rise through the session to push to the 0.7170 areas and a slow push through to a long drawn out close and the highs being made 0.7185 levels.
- EUR: A slow steady rise through the first half of the day, pushing from the 1.1305 levels with a weak effort to push the downside and not pushing through the 1.1300 level, the move into the London session saw the market testing the 1.1325 levels and starting another slow rise through to the 1.1350 levels for the move into the NYK session, NYK were quick buyers as the USD saw sellers across the board and the Euro steadily testing through to the 1.1400 level and holding for long run through to the close touching above the 1.1415 level and testing back to hold just above the 1.1400 level to the close.
Yesterday’s Premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Jan A 1.10% | C 0.90% | P 0.90%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO Business Climate Jan A 99.1 | C 100.6 | P 101
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO Expectations Jan A 94.2 | C 97 | P 97.3
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO Current Assessment Jan A 104.3 | C 104.2 | P 104.7 | R 104.9
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BBA Loans for House Purchase Dec A 38.8K | C 39.0K | P 39.4K | R 39.2K
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CBI Reported Sales Jan A 0 | C 2 | P -13
*US numbers affected by Government shutdown so may not appear when they are supposed to.
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