Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.345 | EURUSD 1.14273| AUDUSD 0.718654 | NZDUSD 0.68346 | USDCAD 1.32626 | USDCHF 0.99197 | GBPUSD 1.31602 |
LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT
                               Highs | Lows
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.14321 | 1.14253
USDJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 109.364 | 109.245
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31645 | 1.31471
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99244 | 0.99124
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.71671 | 0.71599
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.32649 | 1.32572
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.68338 | 0.68275
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.13484 | 1.13309
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.86922 | 0.86826
EURJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 125.031 | 124.849
For Today
- GBP: A quiet session with early Tokyo taking the market back above the 1.3160 level before the opening in Tokyo however, once open the market slipped back trading into the mid 1.3140’s and ranging through to the grey hours in a tight range around the 1.3150 areas, Topside offers congested through the 1.3200 level into the 1.3220-30 areas with possible weak stops on a break through opening the market to the 1.3280-00 areas with very little suspected on a move to the 1.3250 area, a move through the 1.3300 level will likely see congestion limited through the sentimental levels and possibly a slow grind through to the 1.3400 areas. Downside bids light back through to the sentimental levels with 1.3100 likely to show some stronger bids however, weak stops quickly open through to the 1.3050 level, whether the bids are stronger remains to be seen and once would guess the market needs time in the years new range.
- JPY: Early sellers into the Tokyo session saw the market drop away from the opening highs and test through to the 109.15 areas before spending the balance of the session slowly rising to test back to that opening area, Light bids in the current area will likely continue through to the 109.00-108.80 areas with congestion likely to be mixed with some weak stops mixed in, any move lower is likely to meet continual congestion before increasing into the 108.00 level, weak stops on any dip through the 107.80 level is likely to find stronger buyers appearing. Topside offers through the 109.80 level are likely to have been replaced and continuing through the 110.00 level with quick stops appearing on a move through the 110.20-30 areas and opening a quick move through to the 110.60 level and likely increasing on any attempt to the 111.00 levels.
- AUD: Market held above the 0.7160 levels into the Tokyo session before dropping away after the business confidence numbers to test to the 0.7140 level and with the USDJPY a slow grind back through the opening levels to set the high around the 0.7170 area and into the grey hours holding close to that level with reiterations of a likely move higher in interest rates to come. congestion on a move through the 72 cents and likely to continue lightly through to the 0.7240 areas and then increasing through to the 0.7260 level, some weakness just through the level will likely see increasing offers continuing through to the 73 cents areas. Downside bids light through to the 71 cents area before increasing bids start to increase with weak stops possibly increasing on a dip through to the 0.7080 areas, a break through the 0.7070 level will possibly see weak stops joined by larger stops and the market then opening to some weakness to the 70 cents areas.
- EUR: Slow movement for the Euro with the market holding for the most part just below the 1.1435 levels with a minor dip to the 1.1420 area in early Tokyo, Congestion in every direction, with the market likely to see congestive offers likely to continue through to the 1.1480 level before the market starts to see stronger offers moving in, any push for the 1.1500 level is likely to see very strong offers appearing and even if it breaks the weak stops are likely to run into continuing congestion. Downside bids congested in the same manner as the topside with the congestion through to the 1.1350 level particularly strong and even through the level the market is likely to see strong bids reappearing on any attempt to push through the 1.1300-1.1280 areas.
Overnight News
AUD:
Australian firms suffer biggest slump in conditions since crisis BBG
RBA: Harper: Expect next move in rates to be up
RBA Harper: Strong budget, jobs growth show economy is strong
RBA Harper: Not a lot of evidence of negative wealth effect
NZD:
RBNZ Regulators issue damning report on NZ insurance sector NZ Herald
RBNZ: Life insurers show weakness in systems, Governance
RBNZ: Publishes review of life insurer conduct and culture
RBNZ: Lifer insurers need to act urgently to address weaknesses
RBNZ: Sees instances of poor conduct at life insurers
NZ posts widest annual deficit in 11 year on fuel – BFW
CNY:
PBoC is said to plan offshore Yuan bill sale in Feb BBG
China slowed for an eight month in Jan, early data show – BBG
USD/CNY:
Big divides remain as US/China trade talks resume WSJ
US charges Huawei, CFO Meng Wanzhou with financial fraud BFW
DJ separate case accusing Huawei of stealing trade secrets from US business partners also unsealed BBG
DJ actions include unsealing case accusing Huawei of violating US Sanctions on Iran
DJ US authorities unveil sweeping set of actions again China’s Huawei
Mnuchin: Have had productive discussions with China BFW
Mnuchin: Expectation is significant progress at China meetings
Mnuchin: Cautions trade issues complicated with China
Mnuchin: Trump to meet with Liu he at the end of talks
Mnuchin: Enforcement will be topic in China talks
Mnuchin: Don’t expect any big impact in short term from actions
USD:
A $4T scapegoat for market volatility, the Fed’s shrinking portfolio WSJ
US soybean farmers laid low by China’s pig virus WSJ
Mnuchin: No reason for poverty in Venezuela given oil resources
Bolton: Stability, democracy in Venezuela in US interest
Mnuchin: Anticipate modes impacts on US refineries
Mnuchin: Venezuela oil money will have to go to blocked account
Bolton: Trump has made clear all options on table for Venezuela
Mnuchin: Citgo assets in US will be able to keep operating
Mnuchin: Will continue to use all tools to support Guaido
Mnuchin: Treasury took action against PDVSA
Bolton: US announcing sanctions against Venezuela’s PDVSA
Maduro must allow for fair, credible elections says Sanders
USD/CAD/CNY:
US has filed formal extradition request on Huawei CFO Canada
China ForMin expresses serious concern about USD changes against Huawei and Meng Wanzhou
China asks US to withdraw arrest order for Meng
China ForMin says strongly urges US to stop unreasonable suppression of Chinese firms, including Huawei
China ForMin: China will resolutely protect lawful interest of Chinese companies
GBP:
PM May’s plan B in chaos amid open revolt from Tory Brexiteers Telegraph
EU companies may lose automatic right to UK defence contract bids – FT
EUR:
ECB open to resuming quantative easing if needed Draghi
Italy’s credit crunch deepens as recession stalks Europe
Today’s Data
Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (NZD) Dec A 264M | C 225M | P -861M | R -955M
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAB Business Confidence Dec A 3 | P 3
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAB Business Conditions Dec A 2 | P 11
07:00Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CHF) Dec C 4.55B | P 4.74B
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Advance Goods Trade Balance Dec
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Inventories M/M Dec
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Inventories M/M Dec (P)
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Nov C 5.00% | P 5.00%
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Confidence Index Jan C 125 | P 128.1
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Bumpy opening saw the market testing through the 1.3190 level and then snapping up to the 1.3210 areas before a slow drift through the Tokyo session with Sydney and Wellington missing for the day, the market drifted through to the 1.3190 levels again before starting a slow climb through to the run to the grey hours, the market didn’t quiet reach the highs before drifting through to the grey hours and pushing through the 1.3190 levels pushing through to the 1.3165 level into the London opening before pausing through early morning before dipping again this time to the 1.3150’s, the market recovered some of the losses however, the move towards NYK again saw the market dropping back and testing to the 1.3140 levels basing through into the opening and finding a fairly choppy period before settling down to range through to the close around the 1.3160 levels.
- JPY: Opening on its highs and dropping back from those highs around the 109.60 area the market dipped fairly quickly through to the 109.30 levels and ranged around the level through to the grey hours, pushing with early London buyers taking the market through to the mid 40’s the market struggled into the full London opening before rising steadily on Light buying to push the 109.50 area, the move through to the NYK session saw the sellers reappear and a dip through to the 109.20 levels extending after a few hours into the 109.15 area before putting in a final push from the lows to the 109.35 area for the move to the close.
- AUD: With the Sydney market closed for the day early buyers appeared just to fill in the small gap from Fridays close and took the market back to the 0.7180 areas for the move into the Tokyo session, buyers quickly pushed through the 0.7200 areas before running out of steam holding for a few hours before dropping back through the figure and into the grey hours holding the opening levels through deep into the London session, the move to the NYK session saw the market drifting and settling into to range in the 0.7160-70 area for a long drawn out run to the close with very little moving through the market.
- EUR: Very limited trading in the Euro with the market moving off the 1.1400 area and ranging to the 1.1420 level through the Asian session with a little push to the 1.1425 areas before drifting off into the grey hours, London sold the market to set the lows and the 1.1390 area before moving to the opening pushing back into the previous range, deep into the NYK session the market moved quickly through to make the highs for the day on very little and held for a short time just below the highs of 1.1440 area drifting to a close around the 1.1425 areas.
Yesterday’s Premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Corporate Service Price Y/Y Dec A 1.10% | C 1.20% | P 1.20%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â BoJ meeting minutes
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone M3 Money Supply Y/Y Dec A 4.10% | C 3.80% | P 3.70%
*US numbers affected by Government shutdown so may not appear when they are supposed to.
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