Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.039 | EURUSD 1.14797 | AUDUSD 0.72478 | NZDUSD 0.6836 | USDCAD 1.3150 | USDCHF 0.99422 | GBPUSD 1.31152 |
LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT
                               Highs | Lows
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.15090 | 1.14785
USDJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 109.070 | 108.712
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31377 | 1.30964
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99439 | 0.99224
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72725 | 0.72425
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31572 | 1.31238
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.69242 | 0.68868
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.14222 | 1.14089
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.87645 | 0.87522
EURJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 125.295 | 125.068
For Today
- GBP: A nervous start to the day with a slow rise early on to push through to the 1.3125 levels with minor dips back through the 1.3110 opening levels but always bouncing back, the move into the Tokyo with strong selling into the Tokyo fix period saw the market quickly rising from the opening levels again and this time following through to push close to the 1.3140 areas. Downside congestion on any dip through the 1.3100 level is likely to continue through to the 1.3050 area and possibly stronger bids appearing in a normal market, a push through sees similar sentimental bids into the 1.3000 area with weak stops on a move through the level and opening the market to a deeper drop to stronger bids into the 1.2900 areas, topside offers light through to the 1.3200 area with offers then appearing on moves above the level and weak stops possibly through the 1.3220 level areas and limited sentimental offers around the 1.3250 area and stronger into 1.3300.
- JPY: A slow drift through the Asian session with early highs just after the opening to above the 109.05 areas, Tokyo saw an early dip through to the 108.85 areas and ranging for a few hours between that low and the 109 level, the market slipped further the closer it moved to the grey hours testing lightly through the 108.80 areas before holding in the area to the grey hours, topside offers light through to the congested 109.50 areas and increasing through to the 109.80-110.00 levels, a test through will likely see weak stops through the level and the market quickly pushing into the 110.40-60 levels before finding limited offers protecting the 111.00 levels.
- AUD: Rising slowly on the steady USD weakness and pushing through deep into the Tokyo session testing through the 0.7270 levels before holding quietly to the grey hours, Light congestion to the topside running from the 0.7280-0.7300 area with weak stops likely on a push through the 0.7330-40 areas to open up a quick move to fill a gap on the charts dating back to the beginning of December, a move through will quickly open the 74 cents level and stronger offers may be. Downside bids light back through the 72 cent level with weak stops likely on a dip through the 0.7180 areas with congestion then reappearing on any move through to the 0.7150 levels increasing as the market moves towards the 71 cents level.
- EUR: Euro’s made slow but steady headway to extend the highs from yesterday with the market opening around the 1.1480 level and moving into Tokyo testing the 1.1495 level before running into some offers, the market eventually pushed through quickly to the 1.1505 level holding quietly through to the grey hours. Topside offers for the moment around the current levels with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.1520 areas, some light congestion through to the 1.1550 areas and likely to increase the closer the market moves through to the 1.1560 area and strong offers to 1.1600 downside bids light back through the 1.1450 areas with congestion in that area however, a failure to capitalize on the topside break could see stronger stops appearing on any push to or through the 1.1400 levels.
Overnight News
EUR/GBP:
EU is said ready to push UK near point of no return on Brexit BBG
Oliver Robbins warned PM May against Tory plan to go back to Brussels and renegotiate Telegraph
UK’s Clark says technical solution to Irish border unavailable
Juncker says chance of no deal has increased BBG
Brussels orders Britain to pay £39B Brexit bill even if there is no deal – Telegraph
JPY:
Yen chief signals Japan opposed to currency clause in US deal BBG
Inflation no barrier to Aussie rate cut – DJC
AUD:
Housing slump bites as Sydney apartments line up for fire sale SMH
EUR:
Italian PM admits economy is in recession BBG
German growth risks still high, especially for exports – BFW
NZD:
RBNZ Bank capital proposals will drive up rates, reduce credit Sharechat
USD:
Former Fed Gov. Fred Mishkin, the market is too optimistic about the Fed CNBC
China preparing for World War III according to Republican Senator James Inhold
USD/CNY:
US raises questions about Chinese subsidies in trade document – BT
Today’s Data
Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â BOJ Summary of Opinions Jan
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Dec (P) A -0.10% | C -0.50% | P -1.00%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GfK Consumer Confidence Jan A -14 | C -14 | P -14
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Import Price Index Q/Q Q4 A 0.50% | C 0.30% | P 1.90%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI Jan A 49.5 | C 49.3 | P 49.4
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Non-manufacturing PMI Jan A 54.7 | C 53.9 | P 53.8
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Y/Y Dec A 2.10% | C 2.10% | P -0.60%
08:55Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Change Jan C -10K | P -14K
08:55Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Claims Rate Jan C 5.00% | P 5.00%
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Unemployment Rate Dec C 7.90% | P 7.90%
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q4 C 0.20% | P 0.20%
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Italian GDP Q/Q Q4 (P) C -0.10% | P -0.10%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Jan P 35.30%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP M/M Nov P 0.30%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Product Price M/M Dec P -0.80%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Raw Materials Price Index M/M Dec P -11.70%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Personal Income Dec C 0.50% | P 0.20%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Personal Spending Dec C 0.30% | P 0.40%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Deflator M/M Dec P 0.10%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Deflator Y/Y Dec P 1.80%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core M/M Dec P 0.10%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core Y/Y Dec P 1.90%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Cost Index Q4 C 0.80% | P 0.80%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (JAN 26) C 210K | P 199K
14:45Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Chicago PMI Jan C 61 | P 65.4
15:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P -163B
21:30Â Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index Jan P 49.5
23:30Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Jobless Rate Dec C 2.50% | P 2.50%
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A little choppy at the start of the session and post Governmental votes over Brexit, PM May to renegotiate with the EU was short lived with, Non, Nein and probably something along those lines from the Irish however, while it forces a step closer to the no deal Brexit the market has heard it all before, rising from the opening around the 1.3065 level to the 1.3080 area the market then dropped quickly back to just below the opening before again running through into the Tokyo session pressing steadily higher through the previous high and eventually stalled at the 1.3095 areas drifting close to the level through into the grey hours, dipping through to the London opening and retesting to the lows the market moved quickly on the London opening and a leap through the 1.3120 level before finding the market a little and a gradual drift through the day and deep into the NYK session before slowing around the 1.3055 levels, a dovish FOMC saw the Cable reacting to fundamentals for a change and the market quickly pushed to the 1.3145 level triggering weak stops through the 1.3120 level and then dropping back to hold around the 1.3115 areas through to the close.
- JPY: A very quiet range for most of the day with the Asian market drifting around the opening 109.35 levels with a minor dip through to the 109.25 areas a couple of time but struggled on any attempt to push the early 109.45 levels. The move through the London session saw a slow rise through to the early NYK period and the market pushing quickly through to the 109.75 levels before drifting through to the FOMC meeting and no change saw the market dropping quickly back through to the 108.80 areas before stabilising for the move to the close just regaining the 109 handle.
- AUD: A quiet start to the day however, stronger CPI numbers helped the market lift off the opening levels just above the 0.7150 areas and quickly test to the offers into the 0.7180 areas, the market slowly pushed through the level and a gradual rise through to the grey hours testing the 72 cents levels, the move into the London session saw limited movement and the market remained in a very tight range through to the NYK session, the market slowly dipped from the opening testing through to the 0.7185 levels in preparation for the FOMC release, a quick rise on the dovish commentary saw the market rising quickly through to the 0.7250 levels, slowing its ascent push pushing through to above the 0.7270 before dropping back a little and centring on the 0.7250 areas to the close.
- EUR: Rising through the Asian session slowly from the 1.1430 levels pushing slowly through to the grey hours testing the 1.1450 areas, the move into the London session saw the market dip back to the opening lows and a slow sideways movement through the London morning session testing just through the 1.1425 level, the move into the NYK session saw the market dip through to the 1.1410 level to make the lows of the day and limited movement through to the FOMC, the dovish Fed saw the USD drop and the Euro push quickly through to the 1.1480 areas, a steadier rise through to touch a little through the 1.1500 level before dipping back and holding around the 1.1480 areas to the close.
Yesterday’s Premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Trade Y/Y Dec A 1.30% | C 0.90% | P 1.40%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Jan A 0.40% | P 0.30%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Q/Q Q4 A 0.50% | C 0.40% | P 0.40%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Q4 A 1.80% | C 1.70% | P 1.90%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI RBA Trimmed Mean Q/Q Q4 A 0.40% | C 0.40% | P 0.40%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI RBA Trimmed Mean Y/Y Q4 A 1.80% | C 1.80% | P 1.80%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI RBA Weighted Median Q/Q Q4 A 0.40% | C 0.50% | P 0.30%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI RBA Weighted Median Y/Y Q4 A 1.70% | C 1.70% | P 1.70% | R 1.80%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Confidence Index Jan A 41.9 | C 42.5 | P 42.7
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â French GDP Q/Q Q4 A 0.30% | C 0.30% | P 0.30%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GfK Consumer Confidence Feb A 10.8 | C 10.3 | P 10.4
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â KOF Leading Indicator Jan A 95 | C 98.1 | P 96.3 | 96.4
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Mortgage Approvals Dec A 64K | C 63K | P 64K
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Money Supply M4 M/M Dec A 0.40% | C 0.20% | P 0.00% | R 0.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Business Climate Indicator Jan A 0.69 | C 0.73 | P 0.82 | R 0.86
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Economic Confidence Jan A 106.2 | C 106.7 | P 107.3 | R 107.4
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Confidence Jan A 0.5 | C 0.6 | P 1.1 | R 2.3
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services Confidence Jan A 11 | C 11.2 | P 12 | R 12.2
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Consumer Confidence Jan (F) A -7.9 | C -7.9 | P -7.9 | R -8.3
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M Jan (P) A -0.80% | C -0.80% | P 0.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y Jan (P) A 1.40% | C 1.60% | P 1.70%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ADP Employment Change Jan A 213K | C 170K | P 271K | R 263K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Pending Home Sales M/M Dec A -2.20% | C 1.10% | P -0.70% | R -0.90%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A 0.9M | P 8.0M | R 8.0M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) A 2.50% | C 2.50% | P 2.50%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) A 2.25% | C 2.25% | P 2.25%
*US numbers affected by Government shutdown so may not appear when they are supposed to.
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