Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 108.904 | EURUSD 1.14484 | AUDUSD 0.72733 | NZDUSD 0.69149 | USDCAD 1.31253 | USDCHF 0.99436 | GBPUSD 1.31107 |
LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT
                               Highs | Lows
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.14556 | 1.14359
USDJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 108.967 | 108.728
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31135 | 1.30774
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99538 | 0.99305
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72784 | 0.7237
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31534 | 1.31209
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.69229 | 0.68991
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.13867 | 1.13688
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.87463 | 0.87293
EURJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 124.752 | 124.363
For Today
- GBP: Limited range for the Cable with the market moving off the opening 1.3105 level and testing weakly into the Tokyo session pushing towards the 1.3115 areas before dropping back steadily through the 1.3100 level and some weak stops chasing the market through the 1.3080 area before recovering slowly to the 1.3100 and a quiet range just below to the grey hours, Downside congestion on any dip through the 1.3080 level is likely to continue through to the 1.3050 area and possibly stronger bids appearing in a normal market, a push through sees similar sentimental bids into the 1.3000 area with weak stops on a move through the level and opening the market to a deeper drop to stronger bids into the 1.2900 areas, topside offers light through to the 1.3200 area with offers then appearing on moves above the level and weak stops possibly through the 1.3220 level areas and limited sentimental offers around the 1.3250 area and stronger into 1.3300.
- JPY: Very quiet range for the USDJPY with the market trading around the opening 108.85 levels testing lightly into the Tokyo session to the 108.95 levels before drifting through to the 108.75 level to set the range, the market returned eventually to the 108.85-90 levels in quiet trading through to the grey hours, topside offers light through to the congested 109.50 areas and increasing through to the 109.80-110.00 levels, a test through will likely see weak stops through the level and the market quickly pushing into the 110.40-60 levels before finding limited offers protecting the 111.00 levels. Downside bids congested through to the 108.50 levels with stronger bids in the area however, a push through will likely see weak stops appearing and the market likely to quickly test the 108.20-00 areas and possibly stronger bids reappearing, with bids below likely to be sentimental however, don’t forget the possibility of importers likely to find the levels attractive.
- AUD: Downside bids light around the 72 cents level with some light congestion mixed with weak stops on a push through the 0.7180 level however, the downside is likely to remain weak until the 0.7100 levels with the bids likely to continue to the 0.7080 before some weak stops being joined by possible longer term sellers, some congestion on a dip to the 0.7050 levels and weakness below. topside offers light through to the 73 cents areas with some congestion around the level with weak stops likely through the 0.7340 areas and the market quickly opening through to the 0.7380-0.7400 areas and stronger offers likely to appear.
- EUR: A slow session for the Euro trading from early highs in Tokyo testing the 1.1450 level before slowly drifting to the 1.1440 areas to trade quickly in the area through to the grey hours, Topside offers for the moment around the current levels with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.1520 areas, some light congestion through to the 1.1550 areas and likely to increase the closer the market moves through to the 1.1560 area and strong offers to 1.1600 downside bids light back through the 1.1450 areas with congestion in that area however, a failure to capitalize on the topside break could see stronger stops appearing on any push to or through the 1.1400 levels with further congestion through the 1.1350 level and the bottom side strong bids from then on.
Overnight News
AUD:
ASIC planning to issue new responsible lending guidance following Hayne AFR
Australia housing downturn deepens amid fears of credit freeze BBG
ING latest AUD bank to hike mortgage rates out of cycle
Westpac social media volume quadruples with negative sentiment – BBG
CNY:
Zero hedge: and important wrinkle in Chinese bank hoarding BLG
EUR:
German Govt. cites trade in cutting 2019 GDP growth forecast BFW
Deutsche bank is said to see mid-year merger if turnaround fails BBG
Bundesbank’s Weldmann sees German slowdown persisting into 2019
Eight banks targeted in EU cartel probe of Euro bond trading – BBG
USD/CNY:
Trump casts doubt on US-China trade deal hopes CBC
China’s Xi wants to meet US halfway on trade deal, Trump says
Trump: Huawei wasn’t discussed in talks, but it will be
Trump: Think everything will be agreed to when meet with Xi
Trump: China’s Xi says in letter that he hopes both sides will meet each other half way to reach an early trade agreement
Trump: Xi says in letter he has made arrangements on agricultural product purchases
Trump: Vice premier Liu says hopeful of a deal with the US on trade
Liu: He hopes to accelerate 90 day period for deal
Liu: Decisions in Washington have goe well
Lighthizer: we had two intense days of discussions, made substantial progress
Lighthizer: We have much work to do
Lighthizer: We focused on structural issues and enforcement
Trump: Lighthizer and US delegation will be going to China shortly
Trump: Liu is a friend and very well respected
Trump will meet with Xi, maybe once or twice
Trump: He appreciates that China will make purchases
Trump: Relationship with China has never been so advanced
GBP:
Rees-Mogg promotes sensible deal to leave EU
NZD:
Westpac says reworked NZ immigration means less house building BBG
CAD:
Wilkins: quality of new mortgage debt is getting better
Wilkins: Canada household debt is a concern
Wilkins: BoC thought housing market would have stabilized earlier
Wilkins: Canada economy operating pretty much at full capacity
MXN:
Fitch: Bank exposure to the sovereign risk is considerable
Fitch: Sovereign exposure could pressure Mexico bank ratings
Fitch: Conducted stress tests to Mexico’s top 7 banks
Today’s Data
Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index Jan A 52.5 | P 49.5 | R 50
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Jobless Rate Dec A 2.40% | C 2.50% | P 2.50%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Q/Q Q4 A 0.50% | C 0.60% | P 0.80%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Y/Y Q4 A 2.00% | P 2.10%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Jan (F) A 50.3 | C 50 | P 50
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Caixin PMI Manufacturing Jan A 48.3 | C 49.7 | P 49.7
06:45Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SECO Consumer Confidence Jan C -5 | P -6
07:30Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Real Y/Y Dec C 0.40% | P -0.50%
08:30    CHF       PMI Manufacturing Jan C 56.6 | P 57.8
08:45Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Italy Manufacturing PMI Jan C 49 | P 49.2
08:50Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Manufacturing PMI Jan (F) C 51.2 | P 51.2
08:55Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Manufacturing PMI Jan (F) C 49.9 | P 49.9
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Jan (F) C 50.5 | P 50.5
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Jan C 53.5 | P 54.2
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Jan (A) C 1.00% | P 1.00%
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Jan C 1.40% | P 1.60%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Change in Non-farm Payrolls Jan C 165K | P 312K
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Jan C 3.80% | P 3.90%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Hourly Earnings M/M Jan C 0.30% | P 0.40%
14:30    CAD      Manufacturing PMI Jan P 53.6
14:45Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI Jan (F) C 54.9 | P 54.9
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Manufacturing Jan C 54.3 | P 54.1
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Prices Paid Jan C 58 | P 54.9
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Employment Jan P 56.2
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction Spending M/M Dec
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â U. of Mich. Sentiment Jan (F) C 90.7 | P 90.7
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening around the 1.3115 level the market made early gains into the Tokyo session to push above the 1.3125 level before finding some sellers from the Tokyo fix chasing the market to just below the 1.3110 level, several hours of attempting to recover the highs the market eventually broke a little higher to push through to the 1.3135 levels before drifting through to the grey hours, early London saw the market rising quickly through to the 1.3155 level, the move into the full London session saw the gains quickly being given back and the market moving back to base around the opening levels with some choppy moves along the way to the NYK session, NYK were steady sellers through to the 1.3100 level and light bids holding through to the weak Chicago PMI numbers and the market quickly rising through to the 1.3160 and the highs and lows made in that short period, the market having quickly hit the highs drifted through to the lows again and again tested the 1.3100 level before finishing the day just off the opening levels.
- JPY: A very quiet day for the USDJPY drifting through the day into the London early morning after opening around the 109.00 level and a limited gain to the 109.05 areas before moving into the Tokyo session dipping slowly lower, the market eventually found a base at the 108.50 level and after making the low in early NYK started to recover through to the 108.90 levels and ranging around that level through to the close.
- AUD: Opening just below the 0.7250 levels trading quietly through into the Tokyo session pushing to the 0.7265 area before stepping back to the opening levels into the fix, the market slowly recovered and held quietly around the 0.7270 levels for a long drawn out tight range through into the NYK session, weak Chicago PMI numbers sent the Oz to its highs and test the 0.7295 level before drifting back to settle for the day around the 0.7275 area.
- EUR: Pushing slowly from the opening just above the 1.1480 level and testing through into the Tokyo session the market traded quietly having pushed above the 1.15level and moved into the grey hours holding around the level before finally making the high around the 1.1515 before dipping away into the London opening and a slow drift through the session to test to the 1.1470 level and holding quietly through into NYK, with the weak Chicago numbers ignored the market dipped quickly through to the 1.1450 levels holding briefly into the London close and then continuing through to the 1.1435 level and ranging quietly to the close.
Yesterday’s Premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â BOJ Summary of Opinions Jan
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Dec (P) A -0.10% | C -0.50% | P -1.00%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GfK Consumer Confidence Jan A -14 | C -14 | P -14
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Import Price Index Q/Q Q4 A 0.50% | C 0.30% | P 1.90%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI Jan A 49.5 | C 49.3 | P 49.4
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Non-manufacturing PMI Jan A 54.7 | C 53.9 | P 53.8
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Y/Y Dec A 2.10% | C 2.10% | P -0.60%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Change Jan A -2K | C -10K | P -14K | R -12K
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Claims Rate Jan A 5.00% | C 5.00% | P 5.00%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Unemployment Rate Dec A 7.90% | C 7.90% | P 7.90%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q4 A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Italian GDP Q/Q Q4 (P) A -0.10% | C -0.10% | P -0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Jan A 18.70% | P 35.30%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP M/M Nov -0.10% | C -0.10% | P 0.30%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Product Price M/M Dec -0.70% | C 0.10% | P -0.80%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Raw Materials Price Index M/M Dec A 3.80% | C 3.90% | P -11.70% | R -11.80%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Cost Index Q4 A 0.70% | C 0.80% | P 0.80%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (JAN 26) A 253K | C 210K | P 199K | R 200K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Chicago PMI Jan A 56.7 | C 61 | P 65.4
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A -173B | C 30.3B | P -163B
*US numbers affected by Government shutdown so may not appear when they are supposed to.
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