Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.963 | EURUSD 1.1405 | AUDUSD 0.72338 | NZDUSD 0.68945 | USDCAD 1.31265 | USDCHF 1.00009 | GBPUSD 1.29486 |
LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT
                               Highs | Lows
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.14098 | 1.1396
USDJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 110.054 | 109.628
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29624 | 1.29428
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00021 | 0.99863
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72451 | 0.7146
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31520 | 1.31251
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.69052 | 0.68637
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.14082 | 1.13908
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88227 | 0.87977
EURJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 125.452 | 125.045
For Today
- GBP: A very quiet range however, there was some two-way action with the market dipping through the 1.2945 level in early trading and then slowly rising through to the 1.2960 areas and then drifting through the day holding between the two levels. Downside congestion into the 1.2920-00 areas with possibly strong bids into the figure, weak stops on the push through the figure is likely to see strong congestion on any move towards the 1.2850 areas and possibly a point that will slow the market with bids building into the 1.2800 areas. Topside offers through the 1.3000 levels are likely to be light with weak stops through the level and increasing on any move to the 1.3050 areas and increasing through to the 1.3100 level, a break here could see the market opening quickly with congestion likely to be limited on a move higher.
- JPY: Opening quietly around the 109.95 level the market struggled through to the Tokyo areas and dipped in early morning to the 109.80 areas, AUD movement saw the USDJPY rise initially pushing to the 110.05 area before dropping quickly back to the 109.64 as AUDJPY selling went through, limited bounce saw the market ranging around the 109.80 through to the grey hours in limited action. Downside bids congested through to the 109.00 area with decent bids likely to be congregated around the 109.20-00 levels mixed interest below the 108.80 areas will likely see the stops being absorbed with the market increasing in size on any dip through the 108.60 areas and increasing the deeper the market moves.
- AUD: Opening quietly the market initially made limited gains to the 0.7245 areas from the opening 0.7235, however, early morning selling moved through the market triggering movement in AUDJPY and the Oz quickly dropped through to the 0.7175 areas after all the RBA Lowe comments, the market then continued to drift through the session and holds the 0.7150 levels into the grey hours, The market in either direction is now a little weaker with downside bids through the current lows and increasing through to the 0.7120-00 areas with weak stops likely on a strong break through to the 0.7080 areas and the downside then quickly opening to further movement to the 70 cent area. Topside offers into the 72 cent level are likely to be light with limited weak stops and the market then increasing on the offers side if the market can push through the 0.7240-60 and even more to the 0.7300 areas with strong stops likely on a push through the 0.7320 levels.
- EUR: A slow drift with the market trading around the 1.1400 areas having failed to move beyond the 1.1410 levels in early trading and testing down through the figure to the 1.1395 areas and holding there into the grey hours, Topside offers remain in the 1.1480-1.1500 levels with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.1520 areas, some light congestion through to the 1.1550 areas and likely to increase the closer the market moves through to the 1.1560 area and strong offers to 1.1600 strong downside bids into the 1.1400-1.1380 levels with weak stops likely through the level but with congestion through to the 1.1350 level and increasing on any move lower towards the 1.1320-00 areas.
Overnight News
AUD:
RBA’s Lowe says interest rate outlook now more evenly balanced
Lowe (Finally) admits risks
Melbourne house and land defaults at 25% says Nigel Satterley
GBP/EUR:
UK Ministers discuss plans to delay Brexit to May 24 Telegraph
May faces collision with pro-Brexit Tories over Irish border
UK Govt. has made no decision on tariffs post Brexit
May will see EU’s Tusk and Juncker on Thursday
Irish PM we are not preparing for border infrastructure
May not proposing a deal without a backstop
Irish Pm to meet Barnier to discuss Brexit impasse
May: No dilution of citizens right after Brexit
May: Govt. will uphold all commitments in Belfast agreement
May: UK Govt. rules out physical infrastructure on border
May: Committed top ensuring no return to a hard border
May: UK is committed to Northern Irish peace process
Brexit poses a real and immediate risk UBS lawyer says
UBS asks UK court to ok moving some operations to Germany
UBS says Brexit has forced transfer of some UK operations
USD:
US inflation to pick up this year BBG
US is said to consider reaction if allies partner with Huawei – BBG
CNY:
Ballooning debt in China’s zombie companies threatens to derail economic growth BI
China expresses opposition to US report MoF BFW
China says US trade report doesn’t match facts BFW
China has made trade policies more transparent – MoFCOM
OIL:
API is said to report UZS Crude stocks rose 2.51M BBL last week
EUR:
Eurozone hovers on the brink of recession but Germany pushes for more austerity Telegraph
Today’s Data
Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Factory Orders M/M Dec C 0.30% | P -1.00%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M Dec C -0.40% | P 2.60%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unit Labour Costs Q4 (P) C 1.70% | P 0.90%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Nonfarm Productivity Q4 (P) C 1.70% | P 2.30%
15:00Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Ivey PMI Jan C 60.2 | P 59.7
15:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P 0.9M
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A slow steady sideways move through the Asian session opening around the 1.3040 areas and holding around that level through to the grey hours, London pushed the 1.3050 areas a couple of times before dropping back on Brexit comments, with Germany’s Merkel pushing the EU to come to some agreement and the Irish as usual saying no deal, this saw the Cable drop continually through the session first to the 1.3020 level holding and drifting through to the 1.3000 areas and then on entry into the NYK session forcing the Cable through to the 1.2950 level before finding sufficient bids to hold the market generally with the Euro testing to the 1.2925 level and then pushing back to the 1.2950 areas to hold through to the close.
- JPY: Choppy but limited range for the USDJPY, opening around the 109.90 the market generally stayed close to the level throughout the day, initially rising through to the 110.04 levels the market struggled and eventually started a drift lower through to the grey hours testing through to the 109.80 areas before moving slowly back to the opening level for the next test higher to the previous level and so on always returning to the 109.90 level before steadily settling down to hold around the 109.95 level to the close.
- AUD: A slow drift through the early part of the session saw the market drop a little through the 72 cents level, it was limited and the market slowly hedged back above the figure the RBA announcement was unchanged but with a little stronger terms and the market quickly pushed to the 0.7265 area before holding steadily above the 0.7250 level into the grey hours, early London sold the market however, the Oz struggled through the session for any direction before finishing the day around the 0.7240 in a long run.
- EUR: A quiet start to the day saw limited buying taking the market to the 1.1440 level before slowly sliding back to the 1.1430 areas to the grey hours, early London sold the market through to the 1.1415 areas and ranged through the day around the 1.1420 areas and into a buying NYK even if limited, NYK sold through to the 1.1400 areas driving into the bids before rejecting the level for the first time however, it was unable to really recover and finished just off those lows.
Yesterday’s Premiership results
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â AiG Performance of Service Index Jan A 44.3 | P 52.1
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Retail Sales Monitor Y/Y Jan A 2.10% | C -0.20% | P -0.70%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (AUD) Dec A 3.68B | C 2.25B | P 1.93B | R 2.26B
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Dec A -0.40% | C 0.00% | P 0.40% | R 0.50%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBA Rate Decision A 1.50% | C 1.50% | P 1.50%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Italy Services PMI Jan A 49.7 | C 50 | P 50.5
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Services PMI Jan (F) A 47.8 | C 47.5 | P 47.5
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Services PMI Jan (F) A 53 | C 53.1 | P 53.1
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services PMI Jan (F) A 51.2 | C 50.8 | P 50.8
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Services PMI Jan A 50.1 | C 51.1 | P 51.2
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Dec A -1.60% | C -1.60% | P 0.60% | R 0.80%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â US Services PMI Jan (F) A 54.2 | C 54.2 | P 54.2
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services Composite Jan A 56.7 | C 57 | P 57.6
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.
LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.
Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.
If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.