Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.818 | EURUSD 1.13406 | AUDUSD 0.71019 | NZDUSD 0.67518 | USDCAD 1.33081 | USDCHF 1.00239 | GBPUSD 1.2952 |
LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT
                               Highs | Lows
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.13458 | 1.13354
USDJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 109.842 | 109.65
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29647 | 1.29426
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00271 | 1.00178
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.71069 | 0.70605
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.33288 | 1.33017
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.67575 | 0.67311
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.13697 | 1.1358
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.87597 | 0.87483
EURJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 124.568 | 124.308
For Today
- GBP: A very quiet day with the market pinned for the most part in a 10 pip range and the market unable to push beyond the 1.2960 level and holding around the 1.2945-50 areas through to the grey hours, Downside bids now cleared to the 1.2850 areas and congestion likely to be in that area with maybe some weak stops on a dip through the 1.2830 areas however, stronger bids are likely to be around the 1.2800 level and for the moment everything still remains in the air with those bids likely to continue through to the 1.2760-70 areas before limited weakness appears through to the stronger 1.2700 area, topside offers light through the 1.2900 area and the market possibly open to a short squeeze on a move through the level with the market open to the 1.2950 before weak offers appear increasing as the market moves to the 1.3000 level and particularly strong around and through.
- JPY: Opening around the 109.80 levels the market ranged through into early morning in Tokyo trading around that level and unable to push beyond the 109.85 level before dropping a little back on the Tokyo fix to test through to the 109.65 areas, the market then ranged over the remainder of the session trading in the 109.70-80 areas to the grey hours, topside offers above the 110.00 level with weak stop likely on a move through the 110.20 level and then further congestion quickly reappearing into the 110.40-60 areas and increasing into the 111.00 level and possibly stronger offers appearing, downside bids congested through the 109.40-00 areas with possible strong bids on any dip through the figure area and through to weak stops on a break through the 108.80-70 level.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7105 and almost unchanged over the previous 24hrs the market drifted a little and the RBA’s talk to the market was a little more dovish than expected and adjustments to future numbers saw the Oz drop back to the 0.7060 levels before ranging in the 0.7075 level to the grey hours, Topside offers light back through the 71 cents level with congestion likely on a move above the 0.7150 areas and stronger offers likely to be building on a move through the 0.7160 areas and onwards, weak stops through the 0.7220 level could see a little squeeze through towards the 0.7280 areas where stronger offers start to appear. Downside bids cleared through to the 0.7060-40 congested area with possible strong bids around before the market opens for move to the 70 cents level and a potential for a deeper move if that level were to break.
- EUR: I’d like to say a better range than Cable but not even close, with the market opening seeing the early highs around the 1.1345 level but generally holding the 1.1340 areas through to the grey hours, minor attempts to reach 1.1335 but overall very lacklustre, Downside congestion still remains through the 1.1320 and likely to continue through to the 1.1300 areas and stronger bids appearing on a move through the level a break through the 1.1275 areas could see weak stops appearing and the market making a quick stab lower before finding stronger bids into the 1.1220-00 areas, topside offers weak through the 1.1400 area and the market limited in stops with congestion likely to continue through to the 1.1450 areas, stronger offers on a push to the 1.1480-1.1500 levels with weak stops likely above the 1.1520 level.
Overnight News
USD/KRW:
US asks N. Korea to dismantle all missiles BFW
AUD:
RBA Somp: Probability of rate rise or cut more evenly balanced than previously
RBA: Board does not see strong case to move rates in the near term
RBA: Board judges progress on inflation, unemployment can be reasonably expected
RBA: If progress is made, higher rates would be appropriate at some point
RBA: Might lower rates if there was sustained rise in unemployment, too low inflation
RBA: Resilience of household consumption is a key uncertainty
RBA: Unsure whether income growth will rise enough to offset drag from falling house prices
RBA: Household reaction to fall in home prices is a significant uncertainty
RBA: Cuts GDP forecasts, sees 2.8% YoY Dec 18, 3.0% Dec 19, 2.7% Dec 20, 2.7% Dec 21
RBA: Lowers inflations forecasts, trimmed mean at 2% YoY Dec 19, 2.1% Dec 20, 2.2% Jun 21
RBA: Sees unemployment at 5% Dec 19, 4.9% Dec 20, 4.8% Jun 21
RBA: Sees wage price index 2.4% YoY Dec 18, 2.5% Dec 19, 2.6% Dec 20, 2.6% Jun 21
RBA: Labour market remains strong, leading indicators imply above average growth
RBA: Housing credit conditions tighter than have been for some time
RBA: Little evidence tighter credit was main cause of slowdown in home loans
RBA: Dwelling investment would fall off earlier and faster than previously projected
RBA: Outlook for business investment positive, see YoY growth 4.8% Dec 19, 4.9% Dec 20
RBA: Recent downturn in business surveys, if sustained, would imply weaker investment, employment
RBA: China indicators suggest more pronounced slowing in a momentum
RBA: Global growth running at solid pace, growth in trade partners seen around trend
NAB Executive Ouster increases execution risk, more costs likely – BBG
USD:
Trump to sign order on Chinese telecom equipment ban BFW
IIF’s Brooks warns FX market too optimistic about trade talks – BBG
Trump sees no Xi meeting by tariff deadline, stoking trade worry BBG
DoJ could target OPEC for price fixing under Grassley proposal – BBG
EUR:
First sign of rift between Merkel and Macron as France moves against German pipeline Telegraph
Germany falls into recession as Brussels slashes EU growth forecasts Telegraph
France recalls Ambassador to Italy, sinking ties to post war low
France to recall Ambassador to Italy, citing provocations, AFP citing Foreign Ministry
NZD:
NZ survey shows 46% of farmers pessimistic about economy BFW
MXN:
Mexico leaves key rate unchanged
EUR/GBP:
May has been in Brussels meeting EU officials
May said to have asked EU for a time limit on Brexit backstop
Today’s Data
Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Household Spending Y/Y Dec A 0.10% | C 0.80% | P -0.60%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Current Account (JPY) Dec (P) A 1.56T |C 1.52T | P 1.44T
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Labour Cash Earnings Y/Y Dec A 1.80% | C 1.80% | P 2.00% | R 1.70%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBA Statement on Monetary Policy
06:45Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Jan C 2.40% | P 2.40%
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Trade Balance Dec C 18.1B | P 19.0B
13:15Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Jan C 206K | P 213K
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Change in Employment Jan P 9.3K
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Jan P 5.60%
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A slow sideways day in the Asian session, opening around the 1.2930 areas and the market quickly spiked through the 1.2950 level ebbing a little through the Tokyo session and then a slow recovery into the grey hours, early London saw the market sold back to the 1.2900 areas and the market hung around the level through to early NYK and the market starting a slow slide, the dip through the 1.2900 saw limited stops triggered and the market moving quickly through to the 1.2855 level, the market bounced off the level and the market didn’t stop its rise through to the 1.2995 level where offers kept the market from breaking before slowly drifting through for a long run to the close holding the 1.2950 areas.
- JPY: A very limited day again for the USDJPY opening around the 110.00 levels and then drifting into the Tokyo session pushing to the 109.90 areas before bouncing on the opening to test lightly above the 110.00 level, the movement triggered stronger sellers appearing and the fix added to a move down towards the 109.70 area before finding some support and a slow steady move back to the opening levels for the move into the grey hours, London pushed for the topside and the market this time managed a move to nearly the 110.10 before holding for a short period and then dipping back quickly to the 109.90 level and a steady decline through to the NYK session holding the low for the day around the 109.60 area and a quiet range through to the close moving to the 109.80 levels.
- AUD: A very slow range for the Oz moving off the 0.7105 areas and unable to push beyond the 0.7115 level through into the London session, the market dipped in early trading making little moves through the 0.7100 areas, the market as with the topside made limited attempts to press beyond the 0.7090 areas and moved into the London session pushing through in a slow movement to the 0.7115 area again before selling the market back to 0.7090 into the close in London, and from there it was a slow move to the close closing almost unchanged.
- EUR: Not a good day for the Euro, with an early slow rise to the 1.1370 area before returning back through the 1.1365 opening levels and drifting around the 1.1360 level to the London session, a little movement around the German industrial production number and Germany looking a little sick, from the opening in London the Euro saw steady selling with a tight channelled dip through to the 1.1325 before finding better bids and a slight reversal to fortunes into the NYK session with the market moving back to the opening levels after a few attempts but the rally was unconvincing and held late into the session around the 1.1350 level before drifting off to the 1.1340 for the close.
Yesterday’s Premiership results
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â AiG Performance of Construction Index Jan A 43.1 | P 42.6
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Q4 A 4.30% | C 4.10% | P 3.90% | R 4.00%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change Q/Q Q4 A 0.10% | C 0.30% | P 1.10% | R 1.00%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Labour Cost Private Sector Q/Q Q4 A 0.50% | C 0.60% | P 0.50%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAB Business Confidence Q4 A 1 | P 3
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Leading Index CI Dec (P) A 97.90% | C 97.90% | P 99.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Industrial Production M/M Dec A -0.40% | C 0.80% | P -1.90%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Foreign Currency Reserves Jan A 741B | P 729B
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Monthly Economic Bulletin
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Rate Decision A 0.75% | C 0.75% | P 0.75%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Asset Purchase Target Feb A 435B | C 435B | P 435B
GBP      MPC Official Bank Rate Votes A 0-0-9 | C 0–0—9 | P 0–0–9
GBP      MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes A 0-0-9 | C 0–0—9 | P 0–0–9
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Inflation Report
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 2) A 234K | C 220K | P 253K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A -237B | C -228B | P -173B
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.
LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.
Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.
If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.