Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 111.005 | EURUSD 1.1261 | AUDUSD 0.7089 | NZDUSD 0.68106 | USDCAD 1.32555 | USDCHF 1.00932 | GBPUSD 1.28454 |
LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT
                               Highs | Lows
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.12839 | 1.12492
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 111.129 | 110.872
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.28698 | 1.28426
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00974 | 1.0078
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.71240 | 0.7085
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.32678 | 1.32367
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.68337 | 0.67947
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.13760 | 1.1357
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.87700 | 0.87561
EURJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 125.376 | 124.866
For Today
- GBP: A slow but steady rise from the opening just below the 1.2850 areas and testing through to the 1.2870 levels for the move into the grey hours, Downside congestion and possibly stronger bids into the 1.2800 areas with the congestion likely to continue through to the 1.2760-40 areas and then increasing in size on any dip through to the stronger 1.2700 areas. Topside offers light through to the 1.2900 level having been cleared out with some congestive offers likely to be moving into the areas around the 1.2850 area with stronger offers likely to reappear on any move to the 1.2980-1.3000 area and strong stops on a move through.
- JPY: The move through the session was very quiet and tedious with the market dipping a little through the 110.90 areas before starting a slow steady rise through to a spike above the 111.10 areas before holding steady above the 111.00 level in quiet trading, Topside offers continue through to the 111.20 areas with possible strong offers into the area, a push through the 111.20-40 areas will likely see weakness running to the 111.80 areas where limited offers are more sentimental, downside bids congested through the 110.00 level with bids likely to strengthen on a dip through the level and especially congested into the 109.40-60 areas with strong stops if the market can cleanly break the 109.00 areas.
- AUD: opening around the 0.7090 areas the market held quietly through to the Tokyo session before starting a slow steady push through to the 0.7120 levels into the grey hours, with another set of adjustments projected for rates however, as they change on a daily basis the market moves represented the interest on the subject. Downside bids increase on any dips through the 0.7060 areas and likely to continue and increase on any dip through towards the 0.7000 levels, weak stops and possible breakout stops on a dip through the 0.6980 areas, topside offers congested through to the 0.7200 levels with stronger offers likely to move into the area, a push through the 0.7220 levels will likely see weak stops appearing and the market opening up a little through to weaker congestion into the 0.7260 levels.
- EUR; Dipping on the opening to make the lows around the 1.1250 level before rising slowly but steadily through to test just above the 1.1280 level before levelling off for the move into the grey hours, Downside bids down through the 1.2750 areas with stops likely on a dip through the level and the market likely open quickly for a test through to the 1.1220 areas and better bids likely to start to appear, with strong stops possibly through the 1.1200 areas. Topside offers light through to the 1.1350 area with congestive offers then increasing on any move towards the 1.1400 level with weak stops a possibility on a move through the level and then a return to weak congestion for a good distance.
Overnight News
AUD:
ASIC tells banks to lift their game on home loans
EUR:
Spanish elections loom close after Parliament rejects budget
CNY:
China’s two child policy under fire as parents bank account frozen for having a third SCMP
Sun Guofeng, head of PBoC monetary policy, to improve credit flow into the economy
Guofeng: considering measure to drive adjustments in financial institutions lending rates for companies
Guofeng: we hope (policy fine tuning) will not surprise the market when it is introduced
Guofeng: PBoC has good communication mechanisms with other Central banks including US Fed and ECB
Guofeng: Communications with other countries is needed before introducing new policies or creative monetary policy tools
USD/RUB:
Senators target Russian debt, Banks for proposed sanctions RTRS
GBP:
Warning to May, EU history shows late summits don’t end well BBG
USD:
Fed’s Harker says 1 hike in 2019, 1 in 2020 is appropriate path
Harker: Inflation pressure may be edging slightly down
Harker|: Today’s consumer price index reading was soft
Harker: I’m not a fan of tariffs
Mueller just caught a fourth Trump aide lying about contact with Russians
ZAR:
- Africa’s rand drops versus USD as Eskom’s woes deepen BBG
NZD:
RBNZ’s Orr says household may be more circumspect in spending
Orr: concludes select committee testimony
Orr: Spending reflects lack of house price growth
Orr: Risks to rate outlook are balanced
Today’s Data
Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (USD) Jan A 39.2B | C 32.0B | P 57.1B
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CNY) Jan A 271B | C 235B | P 395B
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q4 (P) A 0.30% | C 0.40% | P -0.60%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Deflator Y/Y Q4 (P) A -0.30% | C -0.40% | P -0.30%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Inflation Expectation Feb A 3.70% | P 3.50%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RICS House Price Balance Jan A -22.00% | C -20.00% | P -19.00%
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GDP Q/Q Q4 (P) C 0.10% | P -0.20%
07:30Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices M/M Jan C -0.40% | P -0.60%
07:30Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Jan C -0.20% | P 0.60%
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q4 (P) C 0.20% | P 0.20%
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Employment Q/Q Q4 (P) C 0.20% | P 0.20%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Sales M/M Dec C 0.70% | P -1.40%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Housing Price Index M/M Dec C 0.00% | P 0.00%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 09) C 225K | P 234K
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI M/M Jan C 0.10% | P -0.20%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Y/Y Jan C 2.10% | P 2.50%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core M/M Jan C 0.20% | P -0.10%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core Y/Y Jan C 2.50% | P 2.70%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Advance M/M Dec C 0.10% | P 0.20%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M Dec C 0.00% | P 0.20%
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business Inventories Nov C 0.20% | P 0.60%
15:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P -237B
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Early trading saw the market drift a little through the 1.2890 levels before starting a slow and steady rise through to the grey hours to push to the 1.2920 areas before holding quietly through into the London hours, inflationary data saw the market drifting lower with numbers generally below expectations and the market tested through to the 1.2875 areas into early Tokyo and a quick move higher for the new session testing through towards the 1.2960 level with the usual Brexit commentary, the move into the NYK opening saw the movement reversed and the market paused on a move through to the 1.2900 areas but eventually breaking down to the previous lows and a light bounce before resuming the push through to the 1.2850 areas to hold quietly into the close.
- JPY: A slow but steady rise through the day, opening around the 110.45 areas the market moved into the Tokyo session pushing through the 110.50 areas and then moved steadily into the 110.70 by midsession, the market ranged through to the grey hours eventually pushing a little higher before settling down to a narrow range again through to the NYK session, NYK started a fresh round of buying and the market moved slowly through to the 110.90 areas before stalling for a period of time and then once London was out of the way the market pushed steadily through to gently push through the 111.00 level and a quiet close.
- AUD: A stronger confidence number saw the Oz move from the opening levels around the 0.7090 areas to test towards the 0.7110 level dipping in early Tokyo only to see the market strongly bid through the fix moving through to the 0.7120 level and then a slow rise through to the 0.7135 areas to hold for a short period before drifting into the Grey hours and the market holding quietly through to the NYK session around the 0.7110 level again, the market held around the 0.7110 levels through to the end of London before making a long drift through to the close slightly below the opening levels.
- EUR; The move through the Asian session was quiet with the market stuck in the 1.1335-40 areas having move off the opening 1.1325 area, the move through into the grey hours saw the market dipping away to the 1.1315 levels holding quietly through to the NYK session and a limited push higher turning into a quick drop through to the 1.1285 areas and then drifting through to the close holding the 1.1260 area.
Yesterday’s Premiership results
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Consumer Confidence Feb A 4.30% | P -4.70%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Domestic CGPI Y/Y Jan A 0.60% | C 1.00% | P 1.50%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBNZ Official Cash Rate A 1.75% | C 1.75% | P 1.75%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Jan A -0.80% | C -0.70% | P 0.20%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Jan A 1.80% | C 2.00% | P 2.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Core CPI Y/Y Jan A 1.90% | C 1.90% | P 1.90%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RPI M/M Jan A -0.90% | C -0.80% | P 0.40%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RPI Y/Y Jan A 2.50% | C 2.60% | P 2.70%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Input M/M Jan A -0.10% | C 0.30% | P -1.00% | R -1.60%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Input Y/Y Jan A 2.90% | C 3.80% | P 3.70% | R 3.20%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output M/M Jan A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P -0.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Y/Y Jan A 2.10% | C 2.20% | P 2.50% | R 2.40%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Core M/M Jan A 0.40% | C 0.20% | P 0.20% | R 0.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Core Y/Y Jan A 2.40% | C 2.30% | P 2.50% | R 2.40%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index Y/Y Jan A 2.50% | C 2.50% | P 2.80% | R 2.70%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Dec A -0.90% | C -0.40% | P -1.70%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Jan A 0.00% | C 0.10% | P -0.10% | R 0.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Jan A 1.60% | C 1.50% | P 1.90%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core M/M Jan A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core Y/Y Jan A 2.20% | C 2.10% | P 2.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A 3.6M | C 2.1M | P 1.3M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Monthly Budget Statement Dec A -13.5B | C -10.0B | P -23.2B
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