Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 110.468 | EURUSD 1.12935 | AUDUSD 0.71401 | NZDUSD 0.68648 | USDCAD 1.32463 | USDCHF 1.0052 | GBPUSD 1.2889 |

LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.13250 | 1.1289

USDJPY                 110.578 | 110.443

GBPUSD               1.29205 | 1.28992

USDCHF               1.00599 | 1.0029

AUDUSD              0.71587 | 0.7133

USDCAD               1.32560 | 1.3226

NZDUSD               0.68937 | 0.68504

EURCHF                1.13568 | 1.13434

EURGBP               0.87655 | 0.87464

EURJPY                 125.169 | 124.709

For Today

  • GBP: Cable opened a touch higher from Fridays close however, the premarket interbank was in line with the close and the opening moved sideways through to the Tokyo session slipping a touch back to the 1.2900 level before starting a slow rise through the 1.2920 areas before holding and drifting through to the grey hours around the 1.2910 level, light congestion through the Topside 1.2920 areas and then stronger congestion as the market moves into the 1.2950 areas and likely to increase on any move towards the 1.2980-1.3000 level, while the offers maybe a little stronger a strong push will likely clear them for a move through to the 1.3040-60 areas where stronger congestion awaits and likely to then continue  and increase on any further pushes, downside bids light through to the 1.2840 level with some weak congestive bids along the way and stronger bids likely to appear on a move through to the 1.2800 areas with those bids likely to extend to the 1.2750 area.
  • JPY: Very narrow choppy range through to the grey hours with the market opening just below the 110.50 areas and moving through into the Tokyo session making the highs just below 110.58 before ranging around the 110.50 levels through to the grey hours, light bids through to the 110.00-20 area and sentimental bids around those levels with limited potential for stops large enough to then contend with congestive bids through to the 109.50 areas, weak offers through to the 111.00 before stronger offers appear and likely to continue through to the 111.40 areas before weak stops appear and the market then opens to the 112.00 areas with the potential for stronger offers and larger stops above there.
  • AUD: Opening just off the close the market moved from the opening filling the small gap and although the 0.7135 level was tested the market slowly moved through to the 0.7150 level into the Tokyo session and heading slowly through the level to push towards the 0.7160 area into midsession, the market moved to the grey hours slipping a little and ranging around the level. Downside congestion through the 71 cents level likely to be light but increasing as the market moves towards the 0.7060 areas with stronger bids then likely to appear on any test through the 0.7050 level through to the 70 cents level, possibility of strong stops on any break through the 0.6980 levels with sentimental bids likely to slow any moves beyond the 69 cents. Topside offers increase the closer the market moves to the 0.7180-0.7200 areas with weak stops possibly on a move through the 0.7220 cent level and the market quickly opening to the 0.7260 areas and stronger offers from there to 73 cents.
  • EUR: Drifting around the 1.1290 level through to the Tokyo session before starting a slow steady rise through the early morning period to test to the 1.1325 areas before holding for a couple of hours and then drifting through to the grey hours holding the 1.1310 areas. Downside bids down through the 1.1250 areas with stops likely on a dip through the level and the market likely open quickly for a test through to the 1.1220 areas and better bids likely to start to appear, with strong stops possibly through the 1.1200 areas. Topside offers light through to the 1.1350 area with congestive offers then increasing on any move towards the 1.1400 level with weak stops a possibility on a move through the level and then a return to weak congestion for a good distance.

 

Overnight News

KRW/CNY:

Slumping Korean exports would signal more China PMI pain BBG

USD:

Former FBI deputy director McCabe, FBI had reason to probe possible Trump Russia ties

McCabe: Trump asked if I was part of FBI resistance to Comey

McCabe: Rosenstein concerned by interactions with President

McCabe: Trump may have obstructed justice in firing Comey

McCabe: Rosenstein was concerned about Trump’s capacity, intent

US Commerce department sends White House report on Auto’s section 232 tariff probe, contents undisclosed – BLG

 

Today’s Data

Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

Machine Orders M/M Dec A -0.10% | C -1.10% | P 0.00%

Rightmove House Prices M/M Feb A 0.70% | P 0.40%

 

Harry Hindsight

  • GBP: A quiet run through the Asian session for the Cable with the market drifting in early trading to the 1.2790 levels before holding and slowly recovering through the balance of the day to push the 1.2800 level into the grey hours, early buying saw the market push through to the 1.2810 areas with a small spike on early London buyers before dipping for the opening through to the 1.2785 areas having tested towards the 1.2820 level, the move into early London saw the market testing through to the 1.2830 level on the back of better than expected numbers and the market then holding through to the NYK session around those highs, early NYK saw the market dropping back towards the lows again before starting a slow and steady rise through the NYK session pushing through to the 1.2895 level with very little deviation in the move to the highs and holding close to those levels to the close.
  • JPY: A slow slip lower after making the early highs to the 110.55 level and dropping a quick 15 pips on the Tokyo opening and slowly moving through to push the 110.25 areas before slowly edging higher again, the move to the grey hours saw the market testing the 110.40 and early buyers into the grey hours before the London traders sat down almost saw the market testing the opening levels, London traders had other ideas though and the early trading saw the market quickly testing to the lows of the day just beyond the early low, London morning saw a slow but steady climb through to the NYK session making the highs just above the 110.60 areas before early NYK sold it back to the 110.40 level and a slow range from there through to the close moving between the 110.40-55 areas.
  • AUD: A very quiet Asian session with the Oz slipping from the opening in Tokyo around the 0.7105 areas and dipping through to the 0.7080 areas and then ranging through to the grey hours around the 0.7090 level, the move into the London session saw the market pushing off the 0.7085 areas and taking the market through to the 0.7115 area into the NYK session, a quiet run to the end of London saw limited movement to the 0.7125 area before strong futures buying saw the market rising through to the 0.7150 area and likely to be option connected before slipping a little to the 0.7140 areas for the close.
  • EUR: A slow drift through the first half of the day with the market opening around the 1.1295 areas and holding quietly through to the Tokyo session before starting to drift through to the 1.1285 areas and then holding through to the grey hours, early London took the market through to the 1.1270 areas before holding in a tight range around the 1.1275 areas into NYK, early selling in the US saw the market dip through to the 1.1235 area to make the lows before bouncing back to range through to the close in London around the 1.1270 areas before light buying took the market through to the 1.1300 level before a light drift to the close.

 

Weekend News

EUR:

Vote on minister’s immunity puts Italian populists in bind ABC

ECB Eyes data as slowdown proves significant Villeroy

ECB Rehn sees Eurozone weakening RTRS

ECB Moves closer to global dovish shift as Coeure mulls loads – BBG

NZD:

NZ services industry expansion supports GDP growth BNZ

USD:

Mueller has proven collusion, and that Trump is an illegitimate president Politico

METALS:

Shrinking supplies send Palladium futures to new record highs

GBP:

Two more senior Tory MP’s facing deselection votes at their annual meetings as purple momentum purge gathers pace – Telegraph

 

 

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

NZD       BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI Jan A 53.1 | P 55.1 | R 54.8

CNY        CPI Y/Y Jan A 1.70% | P 1.90%

CNY        PPI Y/Y Jan A 0.10% | P 0.90%

JPY         Industrial Production M/M Dec (F) A -0.10% | C -0.10% | P -0.10%

GBP       Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel M/M Jan A 1.20% | C 0.20% | P -1.30% | R -1.00%

GBP       Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel Y/Y Jan A 4.10% | C 3.10% | P 2.60% | 2.90%

GBP       Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel M/M Jan A 1.00% | C 0.20% | P -0.90% | R 0.70

GBP       Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel Y/Y Jan A 4.20% | C 3.40% | P 3.00% | R 3.10%

EUR        Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Dec A 15.B | C 16.4B | P 15.1B | R 15.8B

CAD       International Securities Transactions (CAD) Dec A -18.96B | P 9.45B | R 10.24B

USD       Empire State Manufacturing Feb A 8.8 | C 7.6 | P 3.9

USD       Import Price Index M/M Jan A -0.50% | C -0.10% | P -1.00%

USD       Industrial Production M/M Jan A -0.60% | C 0.10% | P 0.30% | R 0.10%

USD       Capacity Utilization Jan A 78.20% | C 78.70% | P 78.70% | R 78.80%

USD       U. of Mich. Sentiment Feb (P) A 95.5 | C 93.9 | P 91.2

USD       Net Long-term TIC Flows Dec A -48.3B | P 37.6B

 

 

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

 

LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.

Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.

 

If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.

LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.