Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 111.06 | EURUSD 1.13571 | AUDUSD 0.71683 | NZDUSD 0.68827 | USDCAD 1.31878 | USDCHF 1.00073 | GBPUSD 1.30962 |
LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT
                               Highs | Lows
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.13680 | 1.13543
USDJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 111.076 | 110.753
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31573 | 1.31173
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00067 | 0.99975
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.71722 | 0.71508
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.32013 | 1.31823
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.68885 | 0.68754
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.13781 | 1.13591
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.86730 | 0.86395
EURJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 126.225 | 125.817
For Today
- GBP: The market gapped open on a belief by some that May is contemplating a delay to Redisclosing around the 1.3100 level the market tested quickly through to the 1.3150 areas before some offers slowed and stopped the movement, the market then tested back to the 1.3120 levels before moving into the Tokyo session and a slow climb back to the highs again before drifting into the grey hours pushing to the 1.3120 areas, topside offers likely to be a little cluttered with offers increasing on any push towards the 1.3200 level with weak stops likely to be through the 1.3220 level and opening the market to a weak 1.3250 and only really increasing offer wise into the 1.3290-1.3300 levels. Downside bids light through to the 1.3000 area likely to be weak with stops on a dip through the 1.3100 level and opening up the market to a quick reversal to that 1.3000 area before stronger bids start to appear.
- JPY: A slow sideways move through the early part of the session and moving into the Tokyo session, Tokyo fix saw light supply moving in and the market dropped through the 111.00 from the early highs just above the 111.05 level and continued the move through to midsession before finding some support into the 110.80 level and held through to the grey hours, downside bids a little congestion through to strong support into the 110.00 areas, a dip through the level is likely to see congestion continuing through to the 109.80 level with weak stops possible through to the 109.60 area where the congestive bids are likely to reappear, topside offers through to the 111.20 levels and while there may be weak stops in the area the market is likely to continue to be congestive through the area and increasing on any test to the 111.80 level and stronger offers into the level.
- AUD: A similar pattern to the USDJPY with the early trading holding around the 0.7170 level and testing towards the 0.7175 area before starting a steady move lower through to the 0.7150 level and bouncing a little to recover to the 0.7170 area and holding that range with a slow drift through to the grey hours just off the lows. downside bids into the 0.7080-60 level with some weak stops expected in that area however, any push through the 0.7050 level is likely to find some sellers reappearing in the market and the 70 cents level quickly under pressure, a break below is likely to see a mixture of stops and sentimental bids through to the 0.6950 areas however, those levels are likely to be weak and a lot of room to the downside is likely to open. Topside offers likely to be weak and a test back through the 0.7100-20 area could see a short squeeze appearing but less likely than yesterday a quick test towards 0.7160 areas.
- EUR: A narrow range around the 1.1360 levels with early spike through to the 1.1365 level then returning to the median and rising through to the highs again before dipping to the lows just beyond the 1.1355 level and staying in that range through to the grey hours, topside congestion through to the 1.1400 areas with stronger offers likely to appear on any move to the 1.1380-1.1420 areas before weak stops appear, however, even through that level the congestion is likely to continue through to the 1.1450 levels with increasing offers thereafter through to any approach to the 1.1500 level. downside bids light through to the 1.1250 areas and likely to find stronger bids through to the 1.1200 levels, strong stops likely on a move through the level with the market opening slightly to the 1.1150 area.
Overnight News
GBP/EUR:
May believes extending Brexit doesn’t solve issue Official
May told Merkel about statement she’ll make to parliament on Tuesday
UK Cabinet expected to discuss Brexit Tues Official
Extending article 50 not focus of May, Merkel talks Official
May said to tell Merkel she wants Brexit deal by March 29
Merkel said to ask May if UK plans Brexit delay
DUP’s Wilson says Brexit vote delay right thing to do
Wilson May make sense to delay Brexit by couple of months
May, Juncker agreed deal needed before March summit EU Official
EU says not talking about a prolongation of Brexit process
EU says working assumption remains UK leaving March 29
EU’s Tusk discussed with May Consequences of Brexit delay
EU’s Tusk greater chance of Brexit delay as time goes by
EU’s Tusk Brexit delay would be rational
EU’s Tusk EU will show maximum understanding, goodwill to UK
EU’s Juncker we are making good progress on Brexit deal
May good meetings with Tusk, Merkel, EU leaders
May EU leaders showed real determination to find way through
May Delaying Brexit does not deliver a decision or a deal
May Leaving EU with a deal on March 29 is within our grasp
UK’s May is said to consider plan to postpone Brexit European Daily
Two years after the initial vote Labour policy comes out with backing the peoples vote for a second referendum.
USD:
Yellen rips Trump on policy grasp, says economy is doing well BBG
Feds Clarida: US economy is operating close to full employment, economy in good spot now
Clarida: Inflation is near Feds target
Clarida: We are in a very good place now on financial regulation, supervision
Clarida: With the economy where it is today, inflation muted, Fed can afford to be patient
Clarida: With global demand for currency, bank demands for reserves have risen, balance sheet will be bigger than in past
Clarida: Fed needs to be data dependent
Clarida: There is some signal in financial markets that Fed should pay attention too.
Clarida: Yield curve is flat, but that’s different from a recession signalling inversion
Clarida: US yield curve is affected by global demand for treasuries
Clarida: We meet a lot with folks on senate banking house financial services panels
Clarida: Fed needs to have independence in terms of its tools, but accountability on goals and to congress
Clarida: The US is not on a sustainable, fiscal trajectory
Clarida: Fed has not yet made a decision on ultimate size of balance sheet
Clarida: Fed has policy space, playbook to deal with possible shocks to economy
Powell to duck taking sides as two Fed camps square off on rates – BBG
MXN:
Mexico Government is roiling the Peso again with tariff proposal BBG
USD/EUR:
Trump to EU, play ball or we’re going to tariff the hell out of you Politico
NZD:
RBNZ says Bank Capital plans may lower government borrowing costs BBG
RBNZ takes another shot at Australia’s big four – AFR
INR:
Indian Jets hit terrorist targets violating border in Pakistan Kashmir region
CNY:
China’s bull market in stocks feels somewhat fake – BBG
Today’s Data
Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GfK Consumer Confidence Mar C 10.8 | P 10.8
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BBA Loans for House Purchase Jan C 39.2K | P 38.8K
10:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Inflation Report Hearings
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Dec C 1.25M | P 1.26M
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits Dec C 1.29M | P 1.32M
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index M/M Dec C 0.40% | P 0.40%
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Dec C 4.90% | P 4.70%
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Confidence Feb C 124.1 | P 120.2
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Fed Powell testifies Before Senate Banking Panel
21:45Â Â Â Â NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance Jan C -300M | P 264M
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A little choppy through the early part of Asia with the market spiking to above the 1.3075 but generally a slow climb through to hold quietly around the 1.3070 area to the grey hours, the market rose a little in early trading through to the 1.3075 area before drifting a little into the London session, the market once open rose quickly through to test the 1.3100 area for the first time before dropping quickly back to hold around the 1.3075 areas deep into the NYK session slowly ranging down to the 1.3050 level into the London close, a quick rally as the commentary from the meeting between May and EU/Merkel filtered out and the market tested quickly through to the 1.3100 level again, struggling initially and dipping back through to the 1.3075 level before starting a more concerted push through the figure level to test the 1.3115 level and drifting to the close.
- JPY: A slow Asian session with the move through to the early part of Tokyo slowly rising from the opening around the 110.65 level to test through into Tokyo too the 110.85 level however, fixing supply saw the market drifting back to the opening levels before triggering weak stops and dipping through the 110.60 level and basing there through to early morning in London before starting a slow rise from the lows and testing through the 110.70 areas into the NYK session, and the rise started to pick up trading through to the close in London pushing steadily through to the 111.25 areas before running out of steam and drifting slowly through to finish the day around the 111.05 areas.
- AUD: Opening a touch higher from Friday’s close the market saw an early attempt to fill the gap before moving quickly from the lows just above the 0.7130 level to test to the 0.7155 areas before holding for a short period and slowly moving through to the 0.7160 level for the move into the Tokyo session, the market was unable to improve and the market eventually started a slow slip back testing through the 0.7150 and triggering light selling through to the 0.7135 area, a slow steady rise from that point saw the market pushing through to the 0.7155 level on the move to the grey hours, and then once into London a new slow climb through to the 0.7180 level and then ranging through the NYK session basing around the 0.7170 levels to the close.
- EUR: Choppy opening saw the market make the lows just below the 1.1330 before starting a steady rise through into the Tokyo session testing to the 1.1350 level then ranging through to the grey hours holding the 1.1340 area, sharp rise as early Eastern Europe moved into the market and the much moved through to attempt the 1.1360 level before drifting back for the London opening, early morning saw the Euro pushing a little further on a steady rise through towards the 1.1370 level holding briefly before drifting back through to the London close testing just through the 1.1340 level, commentary from May/EU leaders and the Euro traded steadily through to the highs again before drifting to the close.
Yesterday’s Premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Ex Inflation Q/Q Q4 A 1.70% | C 0.50% | P 0.00% | R 0.30%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Core Q/Q Q4 A 2.00% | C 0.80% | P 0.40% | R 0.70%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Corporate Service Price Y/Y Jan A 1.10% | C 1.10% | P 1.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Inventories M/M Dec (P) A 1.10% | C 0.30% | P 0.30%
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.
LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.
Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.
If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.