Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 110.581 | EURUSD 1.13891 | AUDUSD 0.7187 | NZDUSD 0.68852 | USDCAD 1.3169 | USDCHF 0.99995 | GBPUSD 1.32518 |
LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT
                               Highs | Lows
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.13961 | 1.13732
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 110.626 | 110.516
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.32619 | 1.3241
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00062 | 0.99823
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.71992 | 0.71757
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31756 | 1.31606
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.69015 | 0.68848
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.13934 | 1.13752
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.85958 | 0.85885
EURJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 125.984 | 125.803
For Today
- GBP: A slow rise higher through to the 1.3260 level before drifting through the session to settle into a 1.3240-50 areas for the move into the grey hours, topside offers likely into the 1.3300 level with weak stops on a move through the level and the market then seeing limited congestive offers through to the 1.3350 level and sentimental offers likely only, a push beyond will see stronger offers appearing on any test to the 1.3400 areas and congestion through the level through to 1.3440 and stronger offers possible, downside bids light through the 1.3200 areas with weak stops on a move through and then congestion into he 1.3150-00 area possibly limited and open to a stronger move through to the 1.3000 level.
- JPY: Opening around the 110.55 level and eventually rising through the 110.60 level but mostly remaining in a very tight 110.52-62 range through to the grey hours, downside bids a little congestion through to strong support into the 110.00 areas, a dip through the level is likely to see congestion continuing through to the 109.80 level with weak stops possible through to the 109.60 area where the congestive bids are likely to reappear, topside offers through to the 111.20 levels and while there may be weak stops in the area the market is likely to continue to be congestive through the area and increasing on any test to the 111.80 level and stronger offers into the level.
- AUD: An early dip to the 0.7180 areas was quickly rising in early buying through to close to the 72 cents areas before moving into the Tokyo session and dipping on the release of poor construction numbers and the market then spent a good portion of the session trading around the 0.7180 levels before slowly rising as the market moved to the grey hours to the 0.7190 levels. Topside offers into the 0.7220 with weak stops through the level and limited congestion increasing on a move through to the 0.7260 levels and stronger offers to the 73 cents level, downside bids lightly congestive through to the 71 cents area and then stronger bids on any dip through the level to 0.7080 area and increasing into the 0.7050.
- EUR: Opening around the 1.1390 areas the market barely scrapped the 1.1396 level before drifting through to the 1.1375 area for the move into the grey hours on very quiet trading, topside congestion through to the 1.1400 areas with stronger offers likely to appear on any move to the 1.1380-1.1420 areas before weak stops appear, however, even through that level the congestion is likely to continue through to the 1.1450 levels with increasing offers thereafter through to any approach to the 1.1500 level. downside bids light through to the 1.1250 areas and likely to find stronger bids through to the 1.1200 levels, strong stops likely on a move through the level with the market opening slightly to the 1.1150 area.
Overnight News
USD:
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says there are conflicting signals and cross currents
Powell: reaffirmed a patient approach to interest rate adjustments
Michael Cohen preparing to shock lawmakers with disclosures Vanity Fair
NZD:
NZIER forecasts RBNZ will start raising cash rate from mid-2020
RBNZ’s Capital demands may hit local economies Market talk
JPY:
BoJ may expand QE if Yen jumps Ex board member Kiuchi
Yen may quickly rise past 100 if Global economy worsens Kiuchi
GBP:
Delaying Brexit risks a surge in right wing extremism, warns Jacob Rees-Mogg MP Telegraph
Delay to Article 50 could mean Britain never break free from the EU and the Brexit dream dies Telegraph
City of London faces fresh hurdles to EU markets after Brexit – BBG
OIL:
US crude oil stocks fall unexpectedly last week API
CNY:
Chinese investors dump most Hong Kong stocks in a year
INR/PKR:
Pakistani Jets violate Indian air space in Kashmir PTI
Indian air force jet crashes in Jammu – PTI
Today’s Data
Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance Jan A -914M | C -300M | P 264M | R 12M
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Feb A 0.70% | C 0.30% | P 0.40%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction Work Done Q4 A -3.10% | C 0.50% | P -2.80% | R -3.60%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone M3 Money Supply Y/Y Jan C 4.00% | P 4.10%
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Business Climate Feb C 0.67 | P 0.69
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Economic Confidence Feb C 106 | P 106.2
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Confidence Feb C 0.1 | P 0.5
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services Confidence Feb C 11 | P 11
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Consumer Confidence Feb (F) C -7.4 | P -7.4
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Jan C 0.10% | P -0.10%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Jan C 1.40% | P 2.00%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core-Common Y/Y Jan C 1.90% | P 1.90%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core-Median Y/Y Jan C 1.80% | P 1.80%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core-Trim Y/Y Jan C 1.90% | P 1.90%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Advance Goods Trade Balance (USD) Dec C -75.3B | P -71.6B
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Inventories M/M Dec (F) C 0.40% | P 0.30%
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Fed Powell testifies Before House Panel
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Pending Home Sales M/M Jan C 0.80% | P -2.20%
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Factory Orders Dec C 0.80% | P -0.60%
15:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P 3.7M
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening some 40-50 pips higher on the rumour that PM May was looking for a delay on Brexit the market touched through to the 1.3150 level before dropping back to the 1.3120 for the move into the Tokyo session, the market then started a long drawn out push through to the 1.3150 level before drifting into the Tokyo session falling back to the 1.3130 levels, early buyers started a slow move through into the London session with the market straddling the 1.3150 areas and then lifting for the release of the inflationary report and testing quickly through to the 1.3220 level triggering some minor stops only to dip back to the 1.3200 level for the move through into the NYK session, a slow drift through into NYK before the official commentary from May saw the market picking up off the 1.3150 level and running strongly through to the 1.3280 levels, drifting back through the 1.3250 area before taking a second run to fail again this time at the 1.3290 area and a slow drift through to the close.
- JPY: The market traded quietly through to the Tokyo session with light supply for the fix sending the market lower over time and falling back to the 110.80 areas before finding support and holding around the level in a tight range to the London session, the market remained in a 110.80-90 range through into the NYK session before dipping again on the NYK opening and testing through lightly of the 110.70 level before ranging slightly wider through to the London close, the move into late NYK saw the market dipping for a third time testing the 110.40 areas before holding quietly above the 110.50 level to the close.
- AUD: A limited range for the first half of the day with the market opening around the 0.7170 areas and dipping away from the Tokyo fix to test the 0.7150 levels and basing along that line through to the London session never quiet reaching the opening levels however, the trend lower continued and the move into the London session saw the market testing through to the 0.7140 level and from early London based along that line, ranging through to the 0.7160 level before heading into the NYK session and breaking higher triggering weak stops on a move through to the 0.7180 areas before slowing and holding through to the Sydney opening and another push through to the 0.7190 areas and again running into interference and dipping a little for the close.
- EUR: For the most part a quiet range through the day with the market opening around the 1.1360 levels, holding around the level through to the grey hours with only minor moves to the 1.1368 and dip to the 1.1355 level during the Asian session, grey hours selling saw the market dipping lightly through the 1.1350 level a couple of times to set the lows before recovering to above the 1.1360 level and holding through to the NYK session testing lightly through to the 1.1370 eventually starting a slow rise through the highs on the move to the London close, the market eventually pushed through the 1.1380 levels and steadily rose through pushing lightly through the 1.1400 level before drifting back for the run to the close as the Euro caught up with the Cable move.
Yesterday’s Premiership results
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GfK Consumer Confidence Mar A 10.8 | C 10.8 | P 10.8
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Inflation Report Hearings
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Dec A 1.08M | C 1.25M | P 1.26M | R 1.21M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits Dec A 1.33M | C 1.29M | P 1.32M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index M/M Dec A 0.30% | C 0.40% | P 0.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Dec A 4.20% | C 4.90% | P 4.70% | R 4.60%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Confidence Feb A 131.4 | C 124.1 | P 120.2
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Fed Powell testifies Before Senate Banking Panel
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