Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 111.426 | EURUSD 1.13395 | AUDUSD 0.71041 | NZDUSD 0.68472 | USDCAD 1.33347 | USDCHF 1.00132 | GBPUSD 1.32552 |
LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT
                               Highs | Lows
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.13489 | 1.13338
USDJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 111.436 | 111.156
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.32810 | 1.32433
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00153 | 1.00012
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.71107 | 0.70895
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.33440 | 1.33277
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.68614 | 0.68408
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.13537 | 1.13491
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.85593 | 0.85422
EURJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 126.336 | 126.094
For Today
- GBP: Another dull day in paradise with the Cable moving slowly off its lows around the 1.3245 areas and pushing into the Tokyo session testing through the 1.3260 level and climbing steadily through to the 1.3280 area before dropping back for the move into the grey hours holding around the 1.3270 areas, Topside offers into the 1.3300 level have been resilient over the past 24hrs however, a break through the level is likely to see weak stops and possibly option interest on a test through to the 1.3350 area and sentimental offers then building in to stronger resistance the closer to the 1.3400 level with congestion likely through to the 1.3440-50 areas. Downside bids likely to be limited with some congestion through onto the 1.3160-1.3200 areas but weak stops possibly opening to a move through the 1.3100 and only slightly stronger bids again stops could play a stronger reaction to the market with stronger bids not really appearing until into the 1.3040-00 areas with congestion likely through that level.
- JPY: Drifting from the opening the market broke down from the 111.45 area and moved into the Tokyo session increasing the speed of selling testing initially the 111.25 level before bouncing weakly back into the mid 111.30’s and dropping again steadily through to the 111.18 area to make the low for the day and starting a slow recovery through to the grey hours holding near the 111.30 level. Topside offers into the 111.80-112.20 level however, given the amount of time the market has failed the level one has to suspect stops appearing in size through the level and the market opening quickly through to sentimental offers only around the 112.50 areas and only limited offers through to the stronger 113.00-30 area. Downside bids light through to the 111.00 area with some congestion however, stronger congestion is likely to appear on any dip through the level and continue through to the 110.50 levels with limited stops likely to be absorbed, even if the market breaches the 110.50 level the 110.00 area is likely to be even tougher to push cleanly through.
- AUD: A quiet session for the Oz with the market initially dipping to its lows on the RBA minutes before recovering slowly to test just above the 0.7110 levels however, the limited choppiness faded trading around the 71 cents level and settling to holding quietly through to the grey hours just above the figure level, downside bids into the 70 cents level and possibly just through the level before weak stops appear however, congestion is possibly all the way down to the 0.6950 levels and strong in that area with only limited weakness on any further pushes to wards 69 cent, topside offers thinned through to the 0.7120 level and that resistance is still building and a push through the 0.7120 level will see the congestion swept away to open the market to a slow grind higher and stronger offers through 0.7150 and ultimately 72 cents and stronger offers.
- EUR: From the opening the market moved slowly through into the Tokyo session trading sideways into the Tokyo session before starting a slow rise through to the 1.1350 level and then holding into the grey hours in the mid 1.1340 level, Topside congestion through the 1.1340-60 area still remains if somewhat weaker with the market then opening to stronger offers into the 1.1380-1.1420 area with weak stops on a move through the level however, congestion is likely to be still present and limiting any rush through to the stronger 1.1480-1.1500 level. downside bids congested a little around the 1.1300 levels however, weak stops on a move below the 1.1280 level and the market again opening to the 1.1200-1.1180 areas with strong bids likely in the area, any push through the level is likely to see continuing congestion through to the 1.1150 levels before any weakness truly appears.
Overnight News
NZD:
NZ Consumer confidence drops, nearing six year low BFW
GBP:
Speaker wrecks May’s Brexit plan by banning new vote on deal BBG
DUP unlikely to back May’s Brexit deal before EU meeting GUA
Two thirds of Tory Brexit rebels vow to stay firm in major blow to May
May to request EU for Brexit delay of 9 to 12 months The Sun
USD:
Fed officials wrestle with a dot plot dilemma WSJ
US states probing Hyundai, Kia over vehicle fires – TWT
USD/CNY:
US-China trade talks extend to April over differences on tariffs Nikkei
EUR/GBP:
EU will refuse UK a long Brexit extension its really tricky and undesirable Express
EU could hand May lifeline with formal offer of a new Brexit date – Guardian
AUD:
RBA’s Kent: Pension fund demand absorbing rising bank issuance BFW
RBA Minutes: Significant uncertainties on the economic outlook
RBA: Saw scenarios where might be appropriate to eventually raise rates, or cut rates
RBA: Scenarios more evenly balanced than they had been last year
RBA: Board agreed no strong case for near term move in rates
RBA: Awaiting new information to resolve tension between solid jobs market, soft GDP
RBA: Labour market continued to improve unemployment seen falling to 4.75%
RBA: Slower consumption in NSW linked to drop in home prices, lower turnover in housing market
RBA: Slowdown in home loans mainly due to softer demand, but tighter credit played a part
RBA: Saw risk of marked slowing in dwelling investment in one to two years’ time
RBA: Tighter credit constraining demand for off the plan project homes
RBA: Conditions in drought hit farm sector to remain difficult in near term
RBA AUD had been broadly steady, within narrow range of recent years
RBA: Trade tensions a continued source of uncertainty for world outlook
Macquarie axes family guarantees, SMSF investment loans – AFR
EUR/CNY:
A forgotten Italian port could become a Chinese gateway to Europe NYT
CNY:
China wants Stock, Bond markets to step up funding role BBG
Today’s Data
Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Consumer Confidence Q1 A 103.8 | P 109.1
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index Q/Q Q4 A -2.40% | C -2.00% | P -1.50%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBA Minutes Mar
07:00Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CHF) Feb C 2.88B | P 3.04B
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Jobless Claims Change Feb C 13.1K | P 14.2K
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Claimant Count Rate Feb P 2.80%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Jan C 4.00% | P 4.00%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Weekly Earnings 3M/YoY Jan C 3.20% | P 3.40%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Weekly Earnings ex Bonus 3M/YoY Jan C 3.40% | P 3.40%
10:00    EUR       German ZEW Economic Sentiment Mar C -11 | P -13.4
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW Current Situation Mar C 13 | P 15
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Mar C -15.1 | P -16.6
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Factory Orders Jan C 0.30% | P 0.10%
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening around the 1.3290 areas the market pushed towards the 1.3300 level but was unable to push through on the several attempts through the first half of the day, Tokyo saw a steady range through to the grey hours with the market holding for the most part in the 1.3290-1.3300 levels before dipping to the 1.3275 level into the grey hours, grey hours saw the market in a wider range and again pushing to the 1.3300 level on the London opening but falling back quickly as Brexit commentary started to move into the market place, falling back through the 1.3250 level and then ranging around the level through to the NYK session, with limited attempt to recapture some of the lost ground to the 1.3275 areas before dropping back on the bombshell announcement that the speaker of the house would use some obscure ruling to stop a further vote on May’s Brexit deal, and impartiality flies out of the window, and the market dropping quickly through to test below the 1.3200 level bouncing off the 1.3185 area to push back to the 1.3230 level and a period of sideways movement before the end of London saw the market rallying to the 1.3250 level for the run to the close.
- JPY: Pushing from the 111.45 level the move through to Tokyo was reasonably quiet before rising steadily through to midsession testing just above the 111.60 level before drifting through the session and holding in the 111.50 areas through to the London session with early sellers, the market dipped through early morning to the 111.40 area before again rising slightly in a very quiet session, the end of London saw the market dipping quickly through to the 111.30 level before stabilizing and holding through to the close around the 111.40 areas.
- AUD: Despite the negativity flowing out of the RBA the market moved from the lows just below the 0.7080 level before pushing through the 0.7090 areas and then a solid push higher through the 0.7110 level holding in a light climb into the 0.7120 area before being steadily sold back to just below the 71 cents level and slowly slipping after a slight bounce back to the 0.7090 and a light range around the 71 cents level to the close.
- EUR: Euro remains pinned in a reasonably tight range and today was no exception with the market opening around the 1.1325 areas dipping to early lows before moving off the 1.1320 level in early Tokyo and a slow steady grind through to the grey hours holding just below the 1.1340 level, early Europeans started a further slow rally through into the London session and pushing to the 1.1350 areas, the move through to NYK saw the market edging towards the 1.1360 level before then reversing the move in only a slightly quicker move to the opening levels again pausing at the end of London before pushing for a close around the 1.1340 level.
Yesterday’s Premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (JPY) Feb A 0.12T | C 0.09T | P -0.37T | R -0.29T
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Rightmove House Prices M/M Mar A 0.40% | P 0.70%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Jan (F) A -3.40% | C -3.70% | P -3.70%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Jan A 17.0B | C 17.2B | P 15.6B
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â International Securities Transactions (CAD) Jan A 28.40B | C 15.03B | P -18.96B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAHB Housing Market Index Mar A 62 | C 63 | P 62
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