Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 111.648 | EURUSD 1.11851 | AUDUSD 0.70563 | NZDUSD 0.66678 | USDCAD 1.34575 | USDCHF 1.01967 | GBPUSD 1.29359 |
LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT
                               Highs | Lows
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.11931 | 1.11793
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 111.691 | 111.51
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29445 | 1.29264
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.01987 | 1.01906
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.70691 | 0.70344
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.34688 | 1.34527
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.66823 | 0.66547
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.14053 | 1.13998
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.86494 | 0.86441
EURJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 124.987 | 124.791
For Today
- GBP: while volumes were a little stronger through the session the market was still stuck in a limited range with the market opening around the 1.2935 area and slowly moving through to the 1.2940 level before dipping through to just below the 1.2930 level and a slow recovery through to the 1.2945 level, the market then continued to hold in the 1.2940 area through to the grey hour. Topside light congestion through to the 1.3000 level and sentimental offers only through to the 1.3100 area, stronger congestion increasing into the 1.3140 levels and likely to increase on any push above the 1.3150 level with limited potential for a break through the 1.3200 areas, with stronger offers remaining above the level. downside bids into the 1.2900 areas likely to provide decent support before a break through the 1.2880 level triggering weak stops for a move through to the stronger bids around the 1.2800 level with limited sentimental bids in 1.2850. a push through the 1.2800 area likely to open the downside to a larger move with 1.2760 being the start of the year ranges and limited support.
- JPY: Opening around the 111.65 areas the market slowly moved to its highs just below the 111.70 level before dipping back on weaker China numbers to hold around the 111.60 level then ranging through to the 111.55 areas into the grey hour, Topside offers cleared through the 112.20 with further offers around the 112.50 level absorb the move and slow the market on any push to the 113.00 level, downside bids light through to the 111.00 area with congestion in the area and through to the 110.50 level before any weakness appears and the 110.00 becomes susceptible to a test with strong congestion on any dips.
- AUD: After a quiet opening around the 0.7055 area the release of the China numbers initially saw the Oz push through towards the 0.7070 area before dropping quickly through to the 0.7035 level once the knee jerk reaction was over with the market struggled towards the 0.7050 areas before holding quietly through to the grey hour holding around the 0.7045 level. downside stops likely on a dip through the 0.6980 area and then stronger support on a mo0ve through to the 0.6950 area possible however, the support is dated to the slow ranges from 2016 and suspect at best, with a push through the sentimental levels open until possibly stronger bids into the 68 cents area, topside offers likely to be weak through the 0.7040-60 area and increasing only on a move through the 71 cents areas and increasing from there with stronger resistance increasing the further the market moves towards the 72 cents level.
- EUR: Very limited through to the data releases in China and a similar move through the session rising through the 1.1190 dipping back quickly to the 1.1180 area, the market eventually pushed towards the highs again but generally held quietly through to the grey hour unmoving for the most part just below the highs. downside bids into the 1.1120-1.1080 level is likely to see stronger stops likely to appear with some minor stops on the run to that level although some support on a dip through to the 1.1050 area it is possibly weak and the market will likely to run into stronger bids around the 1.1020-00 areas with a deeper move through that level, topside offers light through to the 1.1200 area with weak stops on a push through to the 1.1220 levels however, congestion likely to continue through to the 1.1260 level with stronger offers around that level and a small gap to the 1.1280 areas where increasing offers are likely to appear.
Overnight News
GBP:
May to face grassroots vote demanding her resignation The Sun
Tory local candidates are not bothering to canvass for the local elections
Remainers have blown the EU elections, and increased the chance of a no deal Brexit- Telegraph
AUD:
Australia’s irrelevant election, short sighted policies have left economy at the mercy of external events Nikkei
Australia’s 19B gold industry on edge of production cliff as mines run out of gold – AUB
USD:
Sliding US inflation pushes Fed rates above neutral BBG
NZD:
NZ business confidence suggests soft patch for GDP ANZ
Economists lower NZ 2019 GDP and CPI outlook BBG
JPY:
Aging Japan grapples with 8m empty homes and stashed cash – Nikkei
Today’s Data
Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GfK Consumer Confidence Apr A -13 | C -13 | P -13
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI Apr A 50.1 | C 50.6 | P 50.5
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Non-manufacturing PMI Apr A 54.3 | C 55 | P 54.8
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ANZ Business Confidence Apr A -37.5 | P -38
05:30Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â French GDP Q/Q Q1 (P) C 0.30% | P 0.30%
05:30Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â French GDP Y/Y Q1 (P) C 1.10% | P 1.00%
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Import Price Index M/M Mar C 0.30% | P 0.30%
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GfK Consumer Confidence May C 10.3 | P 10.4
07:00Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â KOF Leading Indicator Apr C 97 | P 97.4
07:55Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Change (000’s) Apr C -6K | P -7K
07:55Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Claims Rate Apr C 4.90% | P 4.90%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Unemployment Rate Mar C 7.80% | P 7.80%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q1 (A) C 0.30% | P 0.20%
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Italian GDP Y/Y Q1 (P) C -0.10% | P 0.00%
12:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M Apr (P) C 0.50% | P 0.40%
12:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y Apr (P) C 1.50% | P 1.30%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP M/M Feb C 0.00% | P 0.30%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Product Price M/M Mar P 0.30%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Raw Materials Price Index M/M Mar P 4.60%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Cost Index Q1 C 0.70% | P 0.70%
13:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Feb C 3.10% | P 3.60%
13:45Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Chicago PMI Apr C 59 | P 58.7
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Pending Home Sales M/M Mar C 0.70% | P -1.00%
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Confidence Apr C 126.5 | P 124.1
00:30Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Apr (F) P 49.5
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening around the 1.2920 level and unchanged from Friday’s close, the move through into the bank holiday Tokyo session saw a reasonably flat range through to deep into the session before rising through to the 1.2940 level and the grey hour, the move into the London session saw the market pushing to the 1.2945 areas before dropping steadily back through to the NYK session trading to the 1.2905 areas, light buying from the close in London saw the market again regaining the opening levels and holding through to the close just above the 1.2930 areas.
- JPY: Opening around the 111.55 level the market is faced with several days of holidays however, day one saw a light rise through to the 111.65 areas and holding in a very quiet Asian session, the grey hour saw some stronger buying through into the London session pushing to the 111.75 areas before holding through to the NYK session in a tight range before moving into the NYK session and a quick rise through to the 111.85 level pausing and extending to the 111.90 level to make new highs for the day before spending the balance of the session drifting through to the 111.65 areas for the close.
- AUD: Light buying through the Asian session with the market pushing away from the lows just below the 0.7040 area and trading steadily through to the 0.7055 areas before holding in the area through into the London session, the market slowly drifted through to the NYK session holding around the 0.7050 areas before dipping away towards the London close back to the opening levels before recovering quickly into the close to push through to the 0.7060 area and a slow range to the close.
- EUR: Slow trading through the Asian session holding around the 1.1150 area and dipping only to the 1.1145 areas before slowly rising through to the 1.1160 levels, grey hour buying saw the market touching the 1.1165 level before moving quietly through to the NYK session and a slow drift back to the lows, late USD selling saw the market slowly rising through to the 1.1180 area before holding quietly around the 1.1185 level to the close.
Yesterday’s Premiership results
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone M3 Money Supply Y/Y Mar A 4.50% | C 4.20% | P 4.30%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Business Climate Indicator Apr A 0.42 | C 0.49 | P 0.53 | R 0.54
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Economic Confidence Apr A 104 | C 105 | P 105.5 | R 105.6
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Confidence Apr A -4.1 | C -2 | P -1.7 | R -1.6
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services Confidence Apr A 11.5 | C 11.5 | P 11.3 | R 11.5
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Consumer Confidence Apr (F) A -7.9 | C -7.9 | P -7.9 | R -7.2
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Personal Spending Feb A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Deflator M/M Feb A 0.10% | C 0.00% | P -0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Deflator Y/Y Feb A 1.50% | C 1.20% | P 1.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core M/M Feb A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core Y/Y Feb A 1.70% | C 1.70% | P 1.80%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Personal Income Mar A 0.10% | C 0.40% | P 0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Personal Spending Mar A 0.90% | C 0.70% | P 0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Deflator M/M Mar A 0.20% | P 0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Deflator Y/Y Mar A 1.50% | P 1.50%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core M/M Mar A 0.00% | P 0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core Y/Y Mar A 1.60% | C 1.70% | P 1.70%
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