Daily FX Market Commentary

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 111.383 | EURUSD 1.11954 | AUDUSD 0.70142 | NZDUSD 0.66188 | USDCAD 1.34463 | USDCHF 1.01785 | GBPUSD 1.30498 |

LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.12093 | 1.11997

USDJPY                 111.668 | 111.351

GBPUSD               1.30605 | 1.3049

USDCHF               1.01836 | 1.01708

AUDUSD              0.70283 | 0.70117

USDCAD               1.34453 | 1.34335

NZDUSD               0.66398 | 0.66242

EURCHF                1.14064 | 1.13945

EURGBP               0.85871 | 0.85799

EURJPY                 125.111 | 124.754

For Today

  • GBP: Uninspiring day with the market quietly ranging between the 1.3050-60 level through into the grey hour holding the mid-ground, topside congestion through to the 1.3100 level with that congestion increasing as the market moves higher, a test through the 1.3120 areas could see weak stops appearing and the market opening only to stronger offers on any move higher with stronger offers increasing into the 1.3200 level. downside bids light through to the 1.2940 areas with stronger congestion through to the 1.2880 level with stops likely to appear if the market can gain impetus through the 1.2860 level to open a test to the stronger 1.2800 areas.
  • JPY: A steady rise through to the 111.65 area from the opening around the 111.40 having tested a little lower before moving into the Tokyo session and the highs, the move towards the grey hour saw the market slipping a little back to the 111.50 area before holding, Topside offers cleared through the 112.20 with further offers around the 112.50 level absorb the move and slow the market on any push to the 113.00 level, downside bids light through to the 111.00 area with congestion in the area and through to the 110.50 level before any weakness appears and the 110.00 becomes susceptible to a test with strong congestion on any dips.
  • AUD: Initially struggling around the opening level only once the JPY started to drift lower did the Oz move off the lows close to the 0.7010 area and steadily push through to just below the 0.7030 area before ranging in the 0.7020 area through to the grey hour in quiet trading. downside stops likely on a dip through the 0.6980 area and then stronger support on a mo0ve through to the 0.6950 area possible however, the support is dated to the slow ranges from 2016 and suspect at best, with a push through the sentimental levels open until possibly stronger bids into the 68 cents area, topside offers likely to be weak through the 0.7040-60 area and increasing only on a move through the 71 cents areas and increasing from there with stronger resistance increasing the further the market moves towards the 72 cents level.
  • EUR: Moving off the opening lows the market slowly rose through the session to test towards the 1.1210 level before holding quietly just above the figure for a long run to the grey hour, downside bids light through to the 1.1150 area where congestion increases through to the stronger supportive 1.1120-1.1080 with stops likely through the level and possibly stronger chance of a larger move, topside offer congested through the 1.1250 areas with those offers likely to increase through to the 1.1280 level and continuing through to the 1.1320 area before weakness appears for a short run into the 1.1350 areas.

 

 

Overnight News

GBP:

UK’s May prepares to keep EU customs rules – Times

UK’s May and Corbyn hint that a Brexit deal could be in sight – BBG

NZD:

NZ first quarter home purchases by foreigner’s slump – BFW

NZ insight: Job market at odds with RBNZ easing bias – BBG

USD:

Nasdaq gets a fresh technical sell signal on apple rally – BBG

CAD:

Poloz: Negative developments have caused detour for CAD economy

Poloz: BoC sees impact as temporary, growth will pick up

Poloz: Reiterates same messaging from yesterday’s testimony

Poloz: Federal budget neutral from macroeconomic perspective

Poloz: Labour market is performing extremely well

Poloz: Hard to believe economy would settle at negative rate

Poloz: If headwinds dissipate, rates would naturally rise

Poloz: Given headwinds, policy rate now is appropriate

USD/CNY:

China/US conclude productive trade talks, but sticking points remain

Suggestions a trade agreement is looking very likely by 10th May

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

NZD       Building Permits M/M Mar A -6.90% | P 1.90% | R 1.70%

06:00     EUR        German Retail Sales M/M Mar C -0.50% | P 0.90%

06:30     CHF        Retail Sales Real Y/Y Mar C -0.40% | P -0.20%

07:30     CHF        PMI Manufacturing Apr C 51 | P 50.3

07:45     EUR        Italy Manufacturing PMI Apr C 47.7 | P 47.4

07:50     EUR        France Manufacturing PMI Apr (F) C 49.6 | P 49.6

07:55     EUR        Germany Manufacturing PMI Apr (F) C 44.5 | P 44.5

08:00     EUR        Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Apr (F) C 47.8 | P 47.8

08:30     GBP       Construction PMI Apr C 50.3 | P 49.7

11:00     GBP       BoE Rate Decision C 0.75% | P 0.75%

11:00     GBP       BoE Asset Purchase Target May C 435B | P 435B

11:00     GBP       MPC Official Bank Rate Votes C 0–0—9 | P 0–0–9

11:00     GBP       MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes C 0–0—9 | P 0–0–9

11:30     USD       Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Apr P 0.40%

12:30     USD       Initial Jobless Claims (APR 27) C 220K | P 230K

12:30     USD       Nonfarm Productivity Q1 (P) C 1.20% | P 1.90%

12:30     USD       Unit Labour Costs Q1 (P) C 2.10% | P 2.00%

14:00     USD       Factory Orders Mar C 1.40% | P -0.50%

14:30     USD       Natural Gas Storage P 92B

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: A quiet rise through the Asian session rising from the early lows around the 1.3030 area to push quietly into the mid 1.3040’s and ranging quietly through to the grey hour, the market slipped a little before rising off the opening levels around the 1.3035 area to quickly test to the 1.3060 level, over exuberance maybe with main stream media talking about a deal between Tories and Labour to keep the Customs union intact with the EU and the market pushed through into the NYK holding the 1.3070 area, NYK then continued the move with the market slowly push through to the 1.3090 level and then increasing the highs for the move testing lightly through the 1.3100 level and into the FOMC, not change for the rate as expected however, Powell seemed rather sanguine on growth and unconcerned for the most part on transitory softness of inflation and the USD rallied leaving Cable quickly dipping back to the 1.3040 level and testing back to the 1.3050 level for the close.
  • JPY: Opening around the 111.40 level the market saw limited gains through the Asian session holding the opening levels through to deep into the Asian session before rising slowly through to the 111.50 level and holding through into the grey hour, early London saw the market dropping back from grey hour highs just above the 111.50 area and slowly slipping back to the 111.30 area holding quietly through into the NYK session, weaker ISM numbers in the US saw the market dip back to 111.20 level very quickly before stabilizing a little but drifting through to test just below the 111.10 level into the FOMC release, needless to say the USD quickly rallied through to hit just above the 111.60 area before drifting to its close almost unchanged on the day.
  • AUD: Dipping from the opening around the 0.7050 level the market pushed quickly through to the 0.7035 area before bouncing quickly through to the opening levels again with limited stops triggered on the downside triggered, the market slowly ground higher pushing into the mid 0.7050’s before drifting a little lower, early London took the market steadily through to the highs just above the 0.7060 area, having tested to the highs the market slowly drifted through to the NYK session testing back to the 0.7040 area and ranging quietly in the 0.7040-30 areas, some buying into the FOMC to see the market through the 0.7050 level again before dropping quickly through to the 0.7010 area and holding quietly above the level for the move into the close.
  • EUR: Slow grind off the opening lows pushing into the Tokyo session to move off the 1.1210 area to test through to the grey hour holding the 1.1220 in very quiet trading, the move into the London session saw the market rising steadily in steps push initially to the 1.1230 level and then through to the 1.1240 area to move quietly through to NYK, ISM numbers saw the Euro push the 1.1250 level quickly and the market moving into the FOMC release testing the 1.1265 level before the communique from Powell helping the USD recover and the Euro quickly testing below the 1.1200 level pushing lightly through the 1.1190 area before finishing the day slowly.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

AUD       AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index Apr A 54.8 | P 51

NZD       Employment Change Q/Q Q1 A -0.20% | C 0.50% | P 0.10%

NZD       Unemployment Rate Q1 A 4.20% | C 4.20% | P 4.30%

NZD       Labour Cost Private Sector Q/Q Q1 A 0.30% | C 0.50% | P 0.50%

GBP       BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Apr A 0.40% | P 0.90%

GBP       Mortgage Approvals Mar A 62K | C 64K | P 64K | R 65K

GBP       Money Supply M4 M/M Mar A -0.50% | C 0.30% | P 0.30%

GBP       PMI Manufacturing Apr A 53.1 | C 53.1 | P 55.1

USD       ADP Employment Change Apr A 275K | C 181K | P 129K | R 151K

CAD       Manufacturing PMI Apr A 49.7 | P 50.5

USD       Manufacturing PMI Apr (F) A 52.6 | C 52.4 | P 52.4

USD       ISM Manufacturing Apr A 52.8 | C 55 | P 55.3

USD       ISM Prices Paid Apr A 50 | C 55.7 | P 54.3

USD       ISM Employment Apr A 52.4 | P 57.5

USD       Construction Spending M/M Mar A -0.90% | C 0.10% | P 1.00% | R 0.70%

USD       Crude Oil Inventories A 9.9M | C 1.3M | P 5.5M

USD       FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) A 2.25% | C 2.25% | P 2.25%

USD       FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) A 2.50% | C 2.50% | P 2.50%

 

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