Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 111.383 | EURUSD 1.11954 | AUDUSD 0.70142 | NZDUSD 0.66188 | USDCAD 1.34463 | USDCHF 1.01785 | GBPUSD 1.30498 |
LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT
                               Highs | Lows
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.12093 | 1.11997
USDJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 111.668 | 111.351
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.30605 | 1.3049
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.01836 | 1.01708
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.70283 | 0.70117
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.34453 | 1.34335
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.66398 | 0.66242
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.14064 | 1.13945
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.85871 | 0.85799
EURJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 125.111 | 124.754
For Today
- GBP: Uninspiring day with the market quietly ranging between the 1.3050-60 level through into the grey hour holding the mid-ground, topside congestion through to the 1.3100 level with that congestion increasing as the market moves higher, a test through the 1.3120 areas could see weak stops appearing and the market opening only to stronger offers on any move higher with stronger offers increasing into the 1.3200 level. downside bids light through to the 1.2940 areas with stronger congestion through to the 1.2880 level with stops likely to appear if the market can gain impetus through the 1.2860 level to open a test to the stronger 1.2800 areas.
- JPY: A steady rise through to the 111.65 area from the opening around the 111.40 having tested a little lower before moving into the Tokyo session and the highs, the move towards the grey hour saw the market slipping a little back to the 111.50 area before holding, Topside offers cleared through the 112.20 with further offers around the 112.50 level absorb the move and slow the market on any push to the 113.00 level, downside bids light through to the 111.00 area with congestion in the area and through to the 110.50 level before any weakness appears and the 110.00 becomes susceptible to a test with strong congestion on any dips.
- AUD: Initially struggling around the opening level only once the JPY started to drift lower did the Oz move off the lows close to the 0.7010 area and steadily push through to just below the 0.7030 area before ranging in the 0.7020 area through to the grey hour in quiet trading. downside stops likely on a dip through the 0.6980 area and then stronger support on a mo0ve through to the 0.6950 area possible however, the support is dated to the slow ranges from 2016 and suspect at best, with a push through the sentimental levels open until possibly stronger bids into the 68 cents area, topside offers likely to be weak through the 0.7040-60 area and increasing only on a move through the 71 cents areas and increasing from there with stronger resistance increasing the further the market moves towards the 72 cents level.
- EUR: Moving off the opening lows the market slowly rose through the session to test towards the 1.1210 level before holding quietly just above the figure for a long run to the grey hour, downside bids light through to the 1.1150 area where congestion increases through to the stronger supportive 1.1120-1.1080 with stops likely through the level and possibly stronger chance of a larger move, topside offer congested through the 1.1250 areas with those offers likely to increase through to the 1.1280 level and continuing through to the 1.1320 area before weakness appears for a short run into the 1.1350 areas.
Overnight News
GBP:
UK’s May prepares to keep EU customs rules Times
UK’s May and Corbyn hint that a Brexit deal could be in sight – BBG
NZD:
NZ first quarter home purchases by foreigner’s slump BFW
NZ insight: Job market at odds with RBNZ easing bias BBG
USD:
Nasdaq gets a fresh technical sell signal on apple rally BBG
CAD:
Poloz: Negative developments have caused detour for CAD economy
Poloz: BoC sees impact as temporary, growth will pick up
Poloz: Reiterates same messaging from yesterday’s testimony
Poloz: Federal budget neutral from macroeconomic perspective
Poloz: Labour market is performing extremely well
Poloz: Hard to believe economy would settle at negative rate
Poloz: If headwinds dissipate, rates would naturally rise
Poloz: Given headwinds, policy rate now is appropriate
USD/CNY:
China/US conclude productive trade talks, but sticking points remain
Suggestions a trade agreement is looking very likely by 10th May
Today’s Data
Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M Mar A -6.90% | P 1.90% | R 1.70%
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Retail Sales M/M Mar C -0.50% | P 0.90%
06:30Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Real Y/Y Mar C -0.40% | P -0.20%
07:30Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Apr C 51 | P 50.3
07:45Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Italy Manufacturing PMI Apr C 47.7 | P 47.4
07:50Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Manufacturing PMI Apr (F) C 49.6 | P 49.6
07:55Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Manufacturing PMI Apr (F) C 44.5 | P 44.5
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Apr (F) C 47.8 | P 47.8
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction PMI Apr C 50.3 | P 49.7
11:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Rate Decision C 0.75% | P 0.75%
11:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Asset Purchase Target May C 435B | P 435B
11:00    GBP      MPC Official Bank Rate Votes C 0–0—9 | P 0–0–9
11:00    GBP      MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes C 0–0—9 | P 0–0–9
11:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Apr P 0.40%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (APR 27) C 220K | P 230K
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Nonfarm Productivity Q1 (P) C 1.20% | P 1.90%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unit Labour Costs Q1 (P) C 2.10% | P 2.00%
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Factory Orders Mar C 1.40% | P -0.50%
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P 92B
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A quiet rise through the Asian session rising from the early lows around the 1.3030 area to push quietly into the mid 1.3040’s and ranging quietly through to the grey hour, the market slipped a little before rising off the opening levels around the 1.3035 area to quickly test to the 1.3060 level, over exuberance maybe with main stream media talking about a deal between Tories and Labour to keep the Customs union intact with the EU and the market pushed through into the NYK holding the 1.3070 area, NYK then continued the move with the market slowly push through to the 1.3090 level and then increasing the highs for the move testing lightly through the 1.3100 level and into the FOMC, not change for the rate as expected however, Powell seemed rather sanguine on growth and unconcerned for the most part on transitory softness of inflation and the USD rallied leaving Cable quickly dipping back to the 1.3040 level and testing back to the 1.3050 level for the close.
- JPY: Opening around the 111.40 level the market saw limited gains through the Asian session holding the opening levels through to deep into the Asian session before rising slowly through to the 111.50 level and holding through into the grey hour, early London saw the market dropping back from grey hour highs just above the 111.50 area and slowly slipping back to the 111.30 area holding quietly through into the NYK session, weaker ISM numbers in the US saw the market dip back to 111.20 level very quickly before stabilizing a little but drifting through to test just below the 111.10 level into the FOMC release, needless to say the USD quickly rallied through to hit just above the 111.60 area before drifting to its close almost unchanged on the day.
- AUD: Dipping from the opening around the 0.7050 level the market pushed quickly through to the 0.7035 area before bouncing quickly through to the opening levels again with limited stops triggered on the downside triggered, the market slowly ground higher pushing into the mid 0.7050’s before drifting a little lower, early London took the market steadily through to the highs just above the 0.7060 area, having tested to the highs the market slowly drifted through to the NYK session testing back to the 0.7040 area and ranging quietly in the 0.7040-30 areas, some buying into the FOMC to see the market through the 0.7050 level again before dropping quickly through to the 0.7010 area and holding quietly above the level for the move into the close.
- EUR: Slow grind off the opening lows pushing into the Tokyo session to move off the 1.1210 area to test through to the grey hour holding the 1.1220 in very quiet trading, the move into the London session saw the market rising steadily in steps push initially to the 1.1230 level and then through to the 1.1240 area to move quietly through to NYK, ISM numbers saw the Euro push the 1.1250 level quickly and the market moving into the FOMC release testing the 1.1265 level before the communique from Powell helping the USD recover and the Euro quickly testing below the 1.1200 level pushing lightly through the 1.1190 area before finishing the day slowly.
Yesterday’s Premiership results
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index Apr A 54.8 | P 51
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change Q/Q Q1 A -0.20% | C 0.50% | P 0.10%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Q1 A 4.20% | C 4.20% | P 4.30%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Labour Cost Private Sector Q/Q Q1 A 0.30% | C 0.50% | P 0.50%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Apr A 0.40% | P 0.90%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Mortgage Approvals Mar A 62K | C 64K | P 64K | R 65K
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Money Supply M4 M/M Mar A -0.50% | C 0.30% | P 0.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Apr A 53.1 | C 53.1 | P 55.1
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ADP Employment Change Apr A 275K | C 181K | P 129K | R 151K
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI Apr A 49.7 | P 50.5
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI Apr (F) A 52.6 | C 52.4 | P 52.4
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Manufacturing Apr A 52.8 | C 55 | P 55.3
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Prices Paid Apr A 50 | C 55.7 | P 54.3
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Employment Apr A 52.4 | P 57.5
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction Spending M/M Mar A -0.90% | C 0.10% | P 1.00% | R 0.70%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A 9.9M | C 1.3M | P 5.5M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) A 2.25% | C 2.25% | P 2.25%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) A 2.50% | C 2.50% | P 2.50%
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.
LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.
Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.
If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.