Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 109.959 | EURUSD 1.12341 | AUDUSD 0.69985 | NZDUSD 0.65994 | USDCAD 1.34159 | USDCHF 1.01171 | GBPUSD 1.30021 |

LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.12390 | 1.12282

USDJPY                 109.832 | 109.61

GBPUSD               1.30146 | 1.30047

USDCHF               1.01153 | 1.01043

AUDUSD              0.69957 | 0.69737

USDCAD               1.34440 | 1.34207

NZDUSD               0.65995 | 0.65773

EURCHF                1.13659 | 1.13523

EURGBP               0.86396 | 0.86303

EURJPY                 123.411 | 123.146

For Today

  • GBP: A quiet day with the market rising from the opening around the 1.3000 level having tested towards the 1.2995 level from the opening rising through to the 1.3010 level and holding for much of the session ranging between the 1.3005-15 level through to the grey hour, , Topside offers light through to the 1.3080-1.3100 level with some token offers building again in the area, with weak stops light through the 1.3100 level and limited offers until closer to the 1.3150 areas and building increasingly through to the 1.3200 area, downside bids cleared through to the 1.2950 areas with stronger stubborn bids in the area and congestion likely to continue through to the stronger 1.2900 areas and strong stops possible on a dip through to the 1.2880 level opening a deep move.
  • JPY: Opening lower with the US-CNY trade deal on off, off on, testing from just above the 109.80 areas the market slipped lower through to the 109.60 level before bouncing and then moving around the 109.75 areas through into the grey hour, downside bids likely to be strong with increasing congestion through the level and continuing into the 109.00 area with weak stops through the level likely to run into congestive bids through the 108.50 levels, a push to the 108.00 level is likely to be a struggle however, any push through the level is likely to see stronger stops appearing and the market pushing for the 107.50 area quickly with potential for a stronger move lower, topside offers weak through to the 111.00 area where stronger bids start to appear with congestion through the level likely to be tested by weak stops with stronger offers then appearing on any test above the 111.50 level and into the 112.20 level.
  • AUD: A slow slip lower from the opening helped along the way by the poor home load numbers to test into the early part of Tokyo to the 0.6980 and eventually slipping through the level to range around the 0.6975-80 areas through to the grey hour, Downside bids into the 0.6950 level likely to be congestive in nature with the market likely to be fairly stubborn through to the 0.6920-00 with strong bids reappearing, topside offers likely to be weak through to the 71 cents level with those offers likely to continue through to the 0.7120 level before weak stops appear and the market is free to push again towards the 72 cents levels.
  • EUR: Opening around the 1.1235 areas the early buyers managed to test just beyond the 1.1240 areas before slipping slowly through the session to just below the 1.1230 level for the move into the grey hour, downside bids light through to the 1.1150 area where congestion increases through to the stronger supportive 1.1120-1.1080 with stops likely through the level and possibly stronger chance of a larger move, topside offer congested through the 1.1250 areas with those offers likely to increase through to the 1.1280 level and continuing through to the 1.1320 area before weakness appears for a short run into the 1.1350 areas.

 

 

Overnight News

USD/CNY:

Trump: We are right where we want to be with China, remember they broke the deal with us and tried to negotiate – TWT

Trump: The next deal will be far worse Trump warns China – AFR

Trump: reiterates China would prefer trade talks with a democrat – BFW

Trump: China dreaming that democrat beats him in 2020 – BFW

CNY/USD:

China not to compromise on matters of principle, economy resilient – Global times

AUD:

Australian March owner occupied home loan values fall 3.4% MoM

Value of home loans to investors fell 2.7% in March

March home loan approvals -2.8% MoM est. -0.5%

NZD:

NZ Central bank needs economy grow faster – BBG

SAR:

Saudi Minister denounces attack on Saudi Oil carriers – BBG

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

AUD       Home loans MoM Mar A -2.50% | C -0.50% | P 2.00% | R 0.80%

JPY         Leading Index I Mar (P) A | C 96.3 | (&.1

2350       JPY         Current Account (JPY) Mar (P) C 1.71T | P 1.96T

 

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: For the most part the market held around the 1.3010 through the day moving quietly in the Asian session pushing in early Tokyo to test to the 1.3020 levels dipping away from the early highs to push only to the 1.3005 area before rising again, the second failure at the 1.3020 level saw the market dropping back to the 1.3000 and holding through into the grey hour, early London attempted to push through before bouncing quickly through the 1.3020 level, a weaker than expected GDP number saw the market dropping quickly through to the 1.2990 level before starting a slow but steady push through to the NYK session again around the 1.3010 level, NYK were quiet buyers through the early part of the session with Cable pushing through towards the 1.3050 level before dropping back quickly to the 1.3030 area and into the London close and a steady slide through to the close of the day testing back to the 1.3000 level.
  • JPY: Limited range through the day with the market opening around the 109.50 level and then rising through early trading to test to the highs pushing the 110.05 area before falling back and testing through to the 109.60 level before moving into London session quietly rising off the lows and pushing through to the 109.80 level for the move through into NYK session falling again this time steadily pushing through the 109.50 level to make the lows before again rising through to the close testing the highs again for the move to the close.
  • AUD: Saw jitters around the RBA statement, opening around the 0.6990 level rising through to the 0.7020 areas after a quick drop to make the lows just below the 0.6980 area rising through to the 0.7020 level before dropping back just as quick to the 0.6985 areas before holding quietly through the rest of the day holding the 70 cents area with a narrow range overall.
  • EUR: A steady rise through the session moving off the opening lows around the 1.1210 level the market pushed steadily through to the 1.1230 areas and then held quietly around the level deep through the day and into the NYK session before pushing to the highs of the day just above the 1.1250 area before drifting back to hold quietly around the 1.1230 level through to the close.

 

Weekend News

 

CNY/USD:

China names its trade deal price as Trump sets new deadline – BBG

Chinese state media blames US for setback in trade talks – BBG

USD/CNY:

Markets watch for China blowback as Trump turns up heat on trade – BBG

GBP:

Farage surge heaps pressure on May, Labour ahead of Brexit talks – BBG

Cross party Brexit talks to address all proposals and issues Monday

UK Govt: Aim of talks is to leave the EU by the summer

UK Govt: Comments on Brexit talks in statement

UK Govt: To discuss changes to political declaration on customs

UK Govt: To ask EU about changes to Brexit political declaration

UK Govt: To talk to EU about possible Brexit accord changes

EUR:

Salvini’s Difficult week stirs up fears of instability in Italy

AUD:

Oz housing slump deepens as Sydney listings hit 2004 low – BBG

TRY/RUB:

Turkey denies scrapping Russian S-400 missile deal after US pressure – FEX

IRR/USD:

Iran commander calls US military in Gulf a target not a threat – HAA

CHF:

SNB’s Jordan: Low rates have impact on real estate market

Jordan: CHF is highly valued

Jordan: Fixed rate vs. Euro not compatible with mandate

Jordan: Monetary policy needs flexible FX rate

Jordan: Issuing digital currency doesn’t make sense

Jordan: Crypto currencies are more assets than currencies

Jordan: Not crowding out investors from markets

Jordan: Trade tension a big risk for global economy

Jordan: Economy would be worse off with higher rate

Jordan: Will keep policy as long as necessary

Jordan: Negative rate the best way to implement policy

Jordan: Inflation expectations far below 2% threshold

Jordan: Have tools to withdraw any surplus liquidity

Jordan: Balance sheet expansion was worthwhile

 

 

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

JPY         Overall Household Spending YoY Mar A 2.10% | C 1.60% | P 1.70%

JPY         Labour Cash Earnings YoY Mar A -1.90% | C -0.50% | P -0.80% | R -0.70%

JPY         BoJ Summary of Opinions

AUD       RBA Statement on Monetary Policy May

EUR        German Trade Balance (EUR) Mar A 20.0B | C 19.4B | P 18.7B

GBP        GDP MoM Mar A -0.10% | C 0.00% | P 0.20%

GBP        GDP QoQ Q1 (P) A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P 0.20%

GBP        Total Business Investment QoQ Q1 (P) A 0.50% | C -0.70% | P -0.90%

GBP        Industrial Production MoM Mar A 0.70% | C 0.10% | P 0.60%

GBP        Industrial Production YoY Mar A 1.30% | C 0.40% | P 0.10% | R 0.40%

GBP        Manufacturing Production MoM Mar A 0.90% | C 0.00% | P 0.90% | R 1.00%

GBP       Manufacturing Production YoY Mar A 2.60% | C 1.10% | P 0.60% | R 1.20%

GBP        Construction Output MoM Mar A -1.90% | C -0.90% | P 0.40%

GBP       Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Mar A -13.65B | C -13.7B | P -14.1B

GBP       Index of Services 3M/3M Mar A 0.30% | C 0.40% | 0.40%

CAD       Building Permits MoM Mar A 2.10% | C 2.30% | P -5.70% | R -5.10%

CAD       Net Change in Employment Apr A 106.5K | C 15.0K | P -7.2K

CAD       Unemployment Rate Apr A 5.70% | C 5.80% | P 5.80%

USD       CPI MoM Apr A 0.30% | C 0.40% | P 0.40%

USD       CPI YoY Apr A 2.00% | C 2.10% | P 1.90%

USD       CPI Core MoM Apr A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.10%

USD       CPI Core YoY Apr A 2.10% | C 2.10% | P 2.00%

 

 

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