Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 110.354 | EURUSD 1.11504 | AUDUSD 0.68816 | NZDUSD 0.64971 | USDCAD 1.34345 | USDCHF 1.000965 | GBPUSD 1.2662 |
LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT
                               Highs | Lows
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.11572 | 1.11482
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 110.366 | 110.127Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.26660 | 1.26434
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00938 | 1.00819
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.68828 | 0.68666
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.34497 | 1.34321
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.64976 | 0.64842Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.12605 | 1.12417
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88183 | 0.88077
EURJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 123.076 | 122.791
For Today
- GBP: A slow drift in another quiet Asian session with the market drifting from the highs around the 1.2665 level and testing lightly through the 1.2650 areas for the move into the grey hour, downside bids into the 1.2630 level with limited congestion on a break through to the 1.2600 area and light sentimental bids around that level a push through will likely see some congestion through to the 1.2500 areas however, once through the 1.2550 area those bids are likely to be limited and the potential for a larger break lower through the 1.2500 is possible, topside offers light though to the 1.2700 level with very limited congestion and weak stops through the level and a chance of a short squeeze if there were to be any good news, a push through the 1.2750 level will likely see a quick rise to the 1.2800 area and possible stronger offers into the area.
- JPY: Opening a little lower the market filled the gap and then drifted through to the Tokyo session and light cross selling moved in after the weaker than expected PMI numbers and contrary to sentiment the market pushed through to the 110.10 level before starting a recovery and steady push through to the 110.35 level and the grey hour, Downside bids light through the 110.00-109.80 and weak stops likely through the level with no real bids until into the 109.00 levels with possible stronger stops on a move through the 108.80 areas with stronger bids through into the 108.50 level and increasing congestion through the downside through to the 108.00 level and the lows from the beginning of the year, topside offers light through to the 110.50 levels and likely to see stronger congestion through to the 110.80 and strong offers from there through to the 111.20 level and weak stops on a break through that level.
- AUD: AUDJPY selling from the opening in Tokyo having ranged around the opening highs to dip steadily through the 0.6870 level before starting a slow rise back into the mid 0.6870 area for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers light through the 69 cents area with weak stops around the 0.6920 areas with very weak congestion through to the 0.6940-60 areas and likely increasing through the 0.6980-0.7000 levels, downside bids into the 0.6850 area likely to be more sentimental than anything else, stronger bids into the 0.6800 areas with sentimental values likely to show stronger bids on any push lower.
- EUR: Opening around the 1.1155 level the market made only a token push higher before heading into Tokyo and drifting back through the 1.1150 level in a very limited range for the Euro. Downside bids into the 1.1140 level with only a little opening before stronger bids appear through to the 1.1100 areas and likely to continue to the 1.1080 area before weak stops appear and the market opens a little through to the 1.1040 level and better bids reappear for any attempt at the 1.1000 level, topside offers through to the 1.1180-1.1220 area with possibly stronger stops on a push through the level however, above is likely to be congested and any move towards the 1.1300 is likely to be more of a grind through the levels.
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Overnight News
JPY:
May PMI Manufacturing PMI 49.6 a slow slide into recession BBG
Japanese bought net 1.4T Yen overseas debt last week – BBG
USD:
Steve Bannon says killing Huawei more important than trade deal with China SMP
More Democrats push for impeachment with speaker Pelosi accusing Trump of engaging in a coverup BDR
Potential changes to currency manipulation report, hints of additional assertiveness in US FX policy
Carriers drop Huawei phones as US crackdown crimps plans BBG
Mnuchin: He discussed China tariffs with Walmart executive BFW
Mnuchin: expects business to move away from China due to tariffs
Mnuchin: Exemptions possible on latest round of China tariffs
Mnuchin: Happy to talk to polaris CEO on China trade policy
Mnuchin: Trump, Xi likely to see each other at end of Jun
NZD:
NZ Robertson says NZ govt. will shift to net debt target range
Robertson says debt range gives government more flexibility BBG
SEK:
Riskbank will follow its plan to raise rate says Skingsley SVT
CNY:
Wang Yi: China won’t accept unfair basis in talks with US
Wang Yi: No unfair pacts with the US will be agreed
Wang Yi: China to fight till the end of US uses extreme pressure
GBP:
May’s Premiership hangs by a thread as Leadsom quits over Brexit – BBG
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Today’s Data
Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing May (P) A 49.6 | C 50.5 | P 50.2Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GDP Q/Q Q1 (F) C 0.40% | P 0.40%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
07:15Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Manufacturing PMI May (P) C 50 | P 50Â Â Â
07:15Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Services PMI May (P) C 50.8 | P 50.5Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
07:30Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Manufacturing PMI May (P) C 44.8 | P 44.4Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
07:30Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Services PMI May (P) C 55.4 | P 55.7Â Â Â Â
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Manufacturing PMI May (P) C 48.1 | P 47.9Â Â Â Â Â Â
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services PMI May (P) C 53 | P 52.8Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO Business Climate May C 99.1 | P 99.2Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO Expectations May C 95 | P 95.2Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO Current Assessment May C 103.5 | P 103.3Â
11:30    EUR       ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts                                               Â
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Trade Sales M/M Mar C 0.80% | P 0.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 18) C 215K | P 212KÂ Â
13:45Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI May (P) C 52.7 | P 52.6Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
13:45Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Services PMI May (P) C 53.5 | P 53Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Home Sales Apr C 678K | P 692KÂ Â Â Â Â
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Home Sales M/M Apr C -2.50% | P 4.50%Â Â Â
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P 106BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
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Harry Hindsight
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- GBP: A quiet range through the Asian session with the market edging slightly higher through to the grey hour, moving from the opening around the 1.2705 there was a single brief period where the market tested the 1.2700 level before heading towards the 1.2720 areas and holding close to the level through the session, the move into the grey hour saw early sellers appearing and the market pushed through to the 1.2685 area with a brief pause before dropping quickly triggering weak stops through to the 1.2660 level and pausing through to just before the NYK session before testing the 1.2650 level, holding the level for a short period with UK inflation numbers nothing to write home about the market finally dipped through to the 1.2630 levels and the stronger support bouncing a little before steadily rising through to the 1.2695 areas and a slow drift through to the close.
- JPY: Rising from the opening 110.50 levels the market pushed through into the Tokyo session and the 110.60 level ranging quietly deeper into the session before heading through the level to trade to its highs just beyond the 110.60’s before dropping back steadily into Tokyo lunch and then drifting through into the grey hours holding the 110.40 area moving in a tight range around the level before drifting only into the approach to the grey hour, ranging through to the London close testing through the 110.30 level to post lows around the 110.25 area before recovering a little for the close.
- AUD: A range bound day with the market ranging around the 0.6880 level, the market opened around the 0.6885 level and moved through into the Tokyo session dipping quickly through to the 0.6875 areas bouncing back to the opening levels in the first 3 hours before settling for a short period around the 0.6880 area, the move into the Lunch period saw the Oz drifting through to make the lows testing into the low 0.6870’s before moving into the grey hour and London steady buyers chasing the market steadily higher to make the high for the day just through the 0.6895 level, the move through into the NYK session saw the market drifting lower and again eventually testing to the lows before moving through to the close almost unchanged.
- EUR: The Euro struggled through to the Tokyo lunch period holding in a tight 1.1160-65 for the most part before leading the market in a steady drift through to the 1.1150 areas to make the lows, buying in London triggered a quick rise from the lows to the opening levels and eventually squeezed through to push towards the 1.1175 areas before holding quietly into NYK, a quick push from the opening in NYK saw the market rise quickly to the 1.1180 area before dropping back quickly and again saw the market testing steadily lower through the session to the lows again and a quiet range to the close.
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Yesterday’s Premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Ex Inflation Q/Q Q1 A 0.70% | C 0.60% | P 1.70%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Core Q/Q Q1 A 0.70% | C 0.90% | P 2.00%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (JPY) Apr A -0.11T | C -0.12T | P -0.18TÂ Â Â Â Â
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Machine Orders M/M Mar A 3.80% | C 0.00% | P 1.80%Â
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Leading Index M/M Apr A -0.10% | P 0.20% | R 0.30%Â Â
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction Work Done Q1 A -1.90% | C 0.00% | P -3.10% | R -2.10%Â Â Â Â
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Apr A 0.60% | C 0.70% | P 0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Apr A 2.10% | C 2.20% | P 1.90%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Core CPI Y/Y Apr A 1.80% | C 1.90% | P 1.80%Â Â Â Â
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RPI M/M Apr A 0.30% | C 0.90% | P 0.00% | R 0.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RPI Y/Y Apr A 3.00% | C 2.80% | P 2.40%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Input M/M Apr A 1.10% | C 1.20% | P -0.20% | R -0.80%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Input Y/Y Apr A 3.80% | C 4.40% | P 3.70% | R 3.20%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output M/M Apr A 0.30% | C 0.30% | P 0.30% | R 0.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Y/Y Apr A 2.10% | C 2.30% | P 2.40% | R 2.20%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Core M/M Apr A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.00% | R -0.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Core Y/Y Apr A 2.20% | C 2.20% | P 2.20%Â Â Â Â Â
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index Y/Y Mar A 1.40% | C 1.00% | P 0.60% | R 1.00%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Apr A 5.0B | C 5.1B | P 0.8B | R -1.0B
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Mar A 1.10% | C 1.00% | P 0.80% | R 1.00%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M Mar A 1.70% | C 0.80% | P 0.60% | R 0.70%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A 4.7M | C -1.2M | P 5.4MÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
USD      FOMC Minutes May                     Â
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