Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.603 | EURUSD 1.11819 | AUDUSD 0.6900 | NZDUSD 0.6518 | USDCAD 1.34727 | USDCHF 1.00336 | GBPUSD 1.26576 |
LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT
                               Highs | Lows
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.11851 | 1.11771
USDJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 109.747 | 109.483Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.26647 | 1.26575
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00414 | 1.00292
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.69049 | 0.68811
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.34820 | 1.34716
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.65249 | 0.65125Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.12274 | 1.12162
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88332 | 0.88288
EURJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 122.712 | 122.422
For Today
- GBP: With EU elections over and the counting going on nothing happened as the results for the whole of Europe will be released on Sunday once voting across Europe is completed, opening around the 1.2660 level and testing through to just above the 1.2665 area the market dipped from the early highs and drifted back a little and traded around the 1.2660 level through to the grey hour with a range barely scrapping 5 pips, Downside bids cleared through to the 1.2600 level with possibly limited congestion through to the 1.2500 level with possibly a deeper move through that level, Topside offers light through to the 1.2700 level with weak offers likely and stops on a move through with the market then open to a test to the 1.2800 level and stronger stops above.
- JPY: A very limited day with the market opening around the 109.60 areas and dipping into the Tokyo opening to test lightly through the 109.50 area and slowly pushing through to the 109.75 areas to make the highs before slowly drifting back to the lows and then moving through to the grey hour unchanged on the day with limited volume. Downside congestion down through the 109.50 level and increasing as the market moves towards the 109.00 areas, with a break of the 108.80 level likely to trigger weak stops but running into stronger congestion on any dips through to the 108.50 areas and increasing into the 108.00 level. Topside offer into the 110.00 likely to be weak with weak stops possibly opening the market to a quick move through to the 110.50 areas before stronger congestion moves in and increasing into the 111.00 level with strong stops a possibility on a move through.
- AUD: Opening just above the 69cents level the market managed meagre tests through to the 0.6905 area before moving into the Tokyo session and although the range increased by a couple of pips the same high was repeated before the market reacted the WestPac comments and the Oz dipped through to the 0.6880 level to hold quietly through to the grey hour, Topside offers light through the 69 cents area with weak stops around the 0.6920 areas with very weak congestion through to the 0.6940-60 areas and likely increasing through the 0.6980-0.7000 levels, downside bids into the 0.6850 area likely to be more sentimental than anything else, stronger bids into the 0.6800 areas with sentimental values likely to show stronger bids on any push lower.
- EUR: Quiet range through to the grey hour with the market ranging around the 1.1180 opening levels and very limited volume, Downside bids into the 1.1140 level with only a little opening before stronger bids appear through to the 1.1100 areas and likely to continue to the 1.1080 area before weak stops appear and the market opens a little through to the 1.1040 level and better bids reappear for any attempt at the 1.1000 level, topside offers through to the 1.1180-1.1220 area with possibly stronger stops on a push through the level however, above is likely to be congested and any move towards the 1.1300 is likely to be more of a grind through the levels
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Overnight News
AUD:
WestPac now forecasting 3 RBA interest rate cuts in 2019
CNY:
Government is increasingly worried about unemployment
PBoC quietly moving forward with interest rate liberalization
NZD:
Ardern sees slower NZ economic growth amid global headwinds BBG
USD/KRW:
US asks Samsung, Korean co’s to join Huawei boycott DongA
USD:
US considers duties on countries that undervalue currency Commerce dept
Commerce Dept: Has proposed a rule to impose countervailing duties on countries that undervalue their currency relative to USD
Commerce Dept: US amending countervailing duty process US moves to impose duties on countries undervaluing currency
Huawei, ZTE would be banned from 5G networks in US under bill – BBG
USD/CNY:
Doubts cast over Xi-Trump talks at G20 summit SMP
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Today’s Data
Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (NZD) Apr A 433M | C 400M | P 922M | R 824MÂ Â
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â National CPI Core Y/Y Apr A 0.90% | C 0.90% | P 0.80%Â Â
05:30Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â All Industry Activity Index M/M Mar C -0.20% | P -0.20%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel M/M Apr C -0.50% | P 1.20%Â Â Â Â
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel Y/Y Apr C 4.30% | P 6.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel M/M Apr C -0.40% | P 1.10%Â Â Â
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel Y/Y Apr C 4.50% | P 6.70%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
10:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CBI Reported Sales May C 6 | P 13Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Durable Goods Orders Apr (P) C Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -2.00% | P 2.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Durables Ex Transportation Apr (P) C 0.20% | P 0.30%
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Harry Hindsight
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- GBP: Opening around the 1.2660 areas the market was unable to push through to the 1.2670 level through into the Tokyo session and a slow steady drift lower through to the grey hour testing the 1.2635 level before dipping quickly and triggering some weak stops on a test to the 1.2605 level and basing through the early morning in London before starting a steady recovery to the 1.2635 level again and ranging between that level and the 1.2650 area into the NYK session. A minor dip through the 1.2630 level then a strong rally initially to the 1.2650 and then triggering weak stops on a move through to the 1.2685 level before relaxing and slipping back to hold around the opening levels to the close.
- JPY: A slow drift in the early part of the session opening around its days highs at 110.35 and then slipping through to mid-Tokyo testing the 110.15 level and recovering over the course of the session top recapture those highs before quietly moving to the grey hour, slow drift started in the grey hour pushing into the London session holding the 110.20 level and then accelerating to test the 110.00 level into mid-morning, the move through to the NYK session saw the market dropping quickly through the figure level triggering weak stops on a dip through to the 109.70 level before slowing and drifting through to test the 109.50 areas and a long drawn out move through to the close with the market pushing back only to the 109.60 areas.
- AUD: A quiet opening and a tight range around the opening level through into the Tokyo session saw AUDJPY selling moving in after the release of a disappointing PMI number in JPY and the market dropping back to the 0.6865 level for some reason before stabilizing and holding quietly around the mid 0.6875 area for the run into the grey hour, the market ranged around the 0.6870 level through into the London session and probed the lows a few times before moving into the NYK session regaining some composure and pushing the 0.6880 level, the breakdown of the USDJPY saw the Oz climbing through the early part of the NYK session to test the 69 cents level and running to the close holding around the level.
- EUR: Euro made a light push to test through the 1.1155 level from the opening just below the area however, from there it was a steady drift back to the 1.1150 level and slow trading around the level through to the grey hour, early numbers didn’t help the market and the market dipped through to the 1.1135 levels before holding quietly through to the NYK session, strong selling in early NYK saw the market pushing around the 1.1100 areas before seeing strong buying recovering to the 1.1145 level and then a steady climb through to the 1.1185 areas for a slow move through to the close holding in a tight range.
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Yesterday’s Premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing May (P) A 49.6 | C 50.5 | P 50.2Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GDP Q/Q Q1 (F) A 0.40% | C 0.40% | P 0.40%Â Â Â Â Â
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Manufacturing PMI May (P) A 50.6 | C 50 | P 50Â Â
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Services PMI May (P) A 51.7 | C 50.8 | P 50.5Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Manufacturing PMI May (P) A 44.3 | C 44.8 | P 44.4Â Â Â Â Â
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Services PMI May (P) A 55 | C 55.4 | P 55.7Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Manufacturing PMI May (P) A 47.7 | C 48.1 | P 47.9Â Â Â Â Â
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services PMI May (P) A 52.5 | C 53 | P 52.8Â Â Â Â Â Â
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO Business Climate May A 97.9 | C 99.1 | P 99.2Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO Expectations May A 95.3 | C 95 | P 95.2Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO Current Assessment May A 100.6 | C 103.5 | P 103.3Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
EUR       ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts                                               Â
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Trade Sales M/M Mar A 1.40% | C 0.80% | P 0.30% | R 0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 18) A 211K | C 215K | P 212K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI May (P) A 50.6 | C 52.7 | P 52.6Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Services PMI May (P) A 50.9 | C 53.5 | P 53Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Home Sales Apr A 673K | C 678K | P 692K | R 723K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A 100B | C 104B | P 106BÂ Â Â Â
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