Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 109.303 | EURUSD 1.12056 | AUDUSD 0.69269 | NZDUSD 0.65516 | USDCAD 1.34414 | USDCHF 1.00177 | GBPUSD 1.27127 |

LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.12153 | 1.12034

USDJPY                 109.512 | 109.297           

GBPUSD               1.27385 | 1.27201

USDCHF               1.00292 | 1.00159

AUDUSD              0.69362 | 0.69247

USDCAD               1.34465 | 1.34338

NZDUSD               0.65585 | 0.65498           

EURCHF                1.12433 | 1.1228

EURGBP               0.88126 | 0.88022

EURJPY                 122.772 | 122.511

For Today

  • GBP: Volume wise a quiet day with the Cable opening a little higher and pushing to just beyond the 1.2730 level before holding quietly through into the Tokyo session and after several hours started a slow rise through to push at the 1.2740 area for the move into the bank holiday session in London and NYK, light congestion through into the 1.2765 areas with likely weak stops opening a quick test to the 1.2800 level where there is possibly stronger offers in the area. Downside bids light through to the 1.2660 level and possible congestive bids from there downwards into the stronger 1.2600 level.
  • JPY: Opening a little higher the market filled the small gap to the 109.30 level and starting a slow steady climb through a quiet session to test to the 109.50 areas and a slow range through to the London session in the 109.45-50 areas. Downside congestion down through the 109.50 level and increasing as the market moves towards the 109.00 areas, with a break of the 108.80 level likely to trigger weak stops but running into stronger congestion on any dips through to the 108.50 areas and increasing into the 108.00 level. Topside offer into the 110.00 likely to be weak with weak stops possibly opening the market to a quick move through to the 110.50 areas before stronger congestion moves in and increasing into the 111.00 level with strong stops a possibility on a move through.
  • AUD: A quiet range through the session holding around the 0.6930 areas through to the grey hour with very little movement unable to push to far above the 0.6935 or below the 0.6925 and then tightening as the day moved along. Topside offers 0.6940-60 areas and likely increasing through the 0.6980-0.7000 levels, downside bids into the 0.6850 area likely to be more sentimental than anything else, stronger bids into the 0.6800 areas with sentimental values likely to show stronger bids on any push lower.
  • EUR: EU election results see a shift to the right with the lurch to the right dominating the news for the most part, early trading through Asia saw the market dipping from the opening around the 1.1210 level and testing lightly towards the 1.1205 area before recovering and trading to the 1.1215 level for the London session, Downside bids into the 1.1140 level with only a little opening before stronger bids appear through to the 1.1100 areas and likely to continue to the 1.1080 area before weak stops appear and the market opens a little through to the 1.1040 level and better bids reappear for any attempt at the 1.1000 level, topside offers into the 1.1220 area with possibly stronger stops on a push through the level however, above is likely to be congested and any move towards the 1.1300 is likely to be more of a grind through the levels

 

 

Overnight News

EUR:

EU Vote: Greens get 67 seats preliminary results RTRs

Belgian establishment suffers election loss as right surges BBG

European Parliament splintered by nationalists – Guardian

USD/JPY/KRW:

US Pres. Trump we’ve had some great talk on trade and military, made progress on a lot of subjects

Trump: We are working on imbalance of trade

Trump: Sure that trade imbalance will work out over time

Trump: He personally thinks good things will come with N. Korea, there has been no rocket or nuclear testing

Trump: He could be wrong about N. Korea

Trump: The nuclear testing seems to have stopped, but only time will tell

Trump: We will be announcing some things on trade probably in August

Trump: We’ll get the balance of trade straightened out rapidly

 

Today’s Data

Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

JPY         Leading Index CI Mar (F) A 95.9 | C 96.3 | P 96.3 | R 97.1

JPY         Coincident Index Mar (F) A 99.4 | C 99.6 | P 99.6 | R 100.5            

08:00     CHF        Total Sight Deposits CHF (MAY 24) P 578.3B

23:50     JPY         Corporate Service Price Y/Y Apr C 1.10% | P 1.10%           

 

Weekend News

GBP:

Boris Johnson as UK PM is the EU’s worst nightmare BBG

CNY:

China regulator downplays trade war impact, warns on FX

Something is amiss with US political discourse on China China Daily CHD

Baoshang bank to receive liquidity injection from regulators – BBG

NZD:

NZ House price outlook slumped before capital tax decision – ASB

RBNZ offers banks an olive branch on capital plans Afr

EUR:

Support ebbs for governing parties in core of European Union AP

ECB’s  Weidmann sticks to view price gains show no stimulus nee BBG

Salvini’s League set to surge, but premiership may elude him BBG

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: A very quiet run to the London session with Cable holding around the 1.2660 level and struggling to move in either direction, the move into the grey hour saw the market rising quickly through to the 1.2690 level before dipping back into the London opening, and a steady rise through to the previous high and a quick stab above the 1.2700 levels, then dropping back to the opening levels around the 1.2660 area again, the choppy movement continued with the market this time running to the 1.2715 level holding a little longer before dropping back again and testing those opening levels again, the move into the NYK session saw the market again testing this time to the 1.2650 level before bouncing and holding for a couple of hours in the 1.2665 area before pushing through to the 1.2700 for the move to the London close and a long weekend, NYK continued the push with the market rising to above the 1.2730 area and PM May now set to leave office on the 7th June and the wrangle for leadership to takeover from Brexit.
  • JPY: A very limited range for the USDJPY with the market opening around the 109.60 level and centring around that level for the Asian and London session, initially dipping lightly through the 109.50 areas before slowly recovering through early Tokyo to push to the day’s highs around the 109.70 area. The market remained in that range for the most part with the move into the London session seeing early lows just below the 109.50 level, the move through to the NYK session saw very little change until the approach of the London close before dipping quickly through to the 109.30 before holding quietly for the move through to the close.
    AUD: Opening around the 0.6900 area the market held steady through into the Tokyo session with a limited push into the 0.6905 areas, before dropping quickly on comments from WestPac expecting 3 rate cuts before the end of the year, the market dipped through to test into the low 0.6880 area with the market finding sufficient support to turn the market and the move into the London session saw the market start a slow but steady rise through to the 0.6910 areas into the NYK session and although slower the market continued to rise through to the close pushing through to the 0.6935 level before dipping a little for the move into the close.
  • EUR: A quiet Asian session saw the market ranging around the opening 1.1180 area through to the grey hour where strong buying quickly appeared from East Europeans to push the market through to the 1.1205 level before dropping back steadily through to the opening levels again. The rest of the day saw the market rising for the most part pushing steadily through into NYK testing towards the highs and eventually pushing at the 1.1210 level for the move to a quite close.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

NZD       Trade Balance (NZD) Apr A 433M | C 400M | P 922M | R 824M  

JPY         National CPI Core Y/Y Apr A 0.90% | C 0.90% | P 0.80%  

JPY         All Industry Activity Index M/M Mar A -0.40% | C -0.20% | P -0.20%         

GBP       Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel M/M Apr A -0.20% | C -0.50% | P 1.20% | R 1.40%          

GBP       Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel Y/Y Apr A 4.90% | C 4.30% | P 6.20% | R 6.30% 

GBP       Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel M/M Apr A 0.00% | C -0.40% | P 1.10% | R 1.20%          

GBP       Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel Y/Y Apr A 5.20% | C 4.50% | P 6.70%    

GBP       CBI Reported Sales May A -27 | C 6 | P 13             

USD       Durable Goods Orders Apr (P) A -2.10% | C -2.00% | P 2.60%       

USD       Durables Ex Transportation Apr (P) A 0.00% | C 0.20% | P 0.30%

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.