Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 107.325 | EURUSD 1.13698 | AUDUSD 0.69258 | NZDUSD 0.65887 | USDCAD 1.32223 | USDCHF 0.97632 | GBPUSD 1.27458 |

LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.13863 | 1.1367

USDJPY                 107.447 | 107.272

GBPUSD               1.27567 | 1.27257

USDCHF               0.97734 | 0.97558

AUDUSD              0.69607 | 0.69299

USDCAD               1.32177 | 1.31894

NZDUSD               0.66014 | 0.65867

EURCHF                1.11215 | 1.10941

EURGBP               0.89310 | 0.89179

EURJPY                 122.269 | 121.972

For Today

  • GBP: Dip from the opening saw the lows around the 1.2735 level before steadily climbing through the session to test above the 1.2755 level and hold around the 1.2750 area through into the grey hour, likely strong congestion above the 1.2760 level with possibly weak stops on a test through the 1.2780 areas and a quick push through the sentimental levels and momentum building to a stronger test through to the 1.2900 level and limited congestion in the area likely to slow the rise however, very little technical wise to stop further movement higher other than Brexit news. Downside bids light through the recently broken 1.2700 level and weak stops limited through there with better bids then appearing through to the 1.2650 level however, any dip towards the 1.2620 level could see momentum taking the market back onto the 1.25 handle for further tests of the recent lows.
  • JPY: USDJPY saw slow gains through the session opening just above the 107.30 level and dipping back through the level before ranging deep into the session between the 107.30-40 areas before finally pushing through the topside on the move into the grey hour and holding around the 107.45 area. Congestion likely through the downside with weak stops on a break through the 106.80 areas and support are likely to start appearing on any push through to the 106.20-00 areas and the congestion then increasing on any attempt to break through to the 105.80 levels. Topside offers light through to the 108.00 level with weak stops likely on a break above the 108.30 areas and opening a move through to the 108.80-109.00 level where better offers are likely to appear.
  • AUD: Opening slightly stronger the Oz pushed quietly through into the Tokyo session around the 0.6930 level before climbing quickly through to the 0.6950 helped by some commentary from RBA’s Lowe however, the market struggled for several hours around the level before again lifting steadily through to the 0.6960 level and ranging through to the grey hour just below the highs, Topside offers from the current levels are a little thin but increase as the market pushes towards the 0.6980 level with weak stops on a move through the 0.7050 and then some stronger offers appearing to slow the market from squeezing higher, Downside bids light through the 69 cents level with limited stops likely to appear before stronger bids start to reappear on a move through the 0.6850 level and increasing the closer to the 68 cents level the market gets.
  • EUR: Rising slowly from the opening around the 1.1370 area the market managed to push through to the 1.1385 levels into early Tokyo before ranging in a tight 1.1375-85 area through to the grey hour with very little volume for the Euro, Topside likely to see strong offers into the 1.1400 with congestion and sentimental sellers in the area, and while there may be some weak stops on a move through the 1.1410-30 level that congestion continues through to stronger offers on any approach of the 1.1480 level. Downside bids likely to be light through to the 1.1300 level with light bids building in the area with weak stops just below for a move back through lightly congested 1.12 handle and a retest of the 1.1200 level where stronger bids are likely to appear.

 

Overnight News

CNY:

China’s Assistant foreign minister: World economy faces rising prices

AForMin: International community recognises harm from protectionism

AForMin: G20 should ensure unity and cooperation

AForMin: China will safeguard its fundamental interests

AForMin: China, US teams are making preparations for the Xi, Trump meeting

AForMin: China will not allow G20 to discuss Hong Kong issue

AForMin: G20 Will not discuss Hong Kong Issues

AForMin: Hong Kong issues are internal affair for China

AForMin: Will not allow anyone to interfere in its internal affairs at no matter what forum

NZD:

Bank of NZ now sees RBNZ cash rate cut in August BBG

MoM Credit card spending dips by 0.2% in May

NZ plans to introduce bank deposit protection regime BBG

Robertson: RBNZ won’t establish a financial policy committee

Robertson: Most deposit protection regimes funded by bank levy

Robertson: No decisions on funding for deposit protection yet

AUD:

RBA’s Lowe doesn’t really understand markets AFR

 

Today’s Data

Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

JPY         Leading Index CI (APR F) A 95.9| P 95.5

JPY         Coincident Index (APR F) A 102.1 | P 101.9

08:00     EUR        German IFO Business Climate (JUN) C 97.5 | P 97.9

08:00     EUR        German IFO Expectations (JUN) C 94.6 | P 95.3

08:00     EUR        German IFO Current Assessment (JUN) C 100.3 | P 100.6

14:30     USD        Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (JUN) C -1.0 | P -5.3

22:45     NZD       Trade Balance (MAY) C 200m | P 433m

22:45     NZD       Exports (MAY) C 5.61b | P 5.55b

22:45     NZD       Imports (MAY) C 5.40b | P 5.11b

23:50     JPY         BOJ Minutes of April Policy Meeting (APR)

23:50     JPY         Corporate Service Price (YoY) (MAY) C 1.0% | P 0.9%

 

Weekend News

 

EUR:

Eurozone job market cools, putting economic recovery in peril WSJ

Salvini prepared to quit Govt. if Italy won’t cut taxes – Corriere

CNY:

Quiet capital flight dents China’s sway as $1.2T disappears Nikkei

Beijing faces waning global clout with current account deficit looming Nikkei

AUD:

Inside the war on the big four banks AFR

Australia is finally debating QE, even if its CB isn’t – BBG

GBP:

Boris Johnson wins cheers from Tories amid private life turmoil BBG

SAR:

The latest: Saudi Arabia reports deadly attack on airport ABC

CNY/USD:

China won’t agree if US keeps some tariffs Global Times

NZD:

Hedge funds hold out hope for Kiwi even as second rate cut looms

USD:

US considers requiring 5G equipment for domestic use be made outside China DJ

Trump says Major sanctions on Iran Monday after Drone downed – BBG

USD/CNY:

China is manipulating currency to offset US tariffs BBG

Pentagon launches China containment plan MB

Trump blacklists more China tech companies’ days before Xi summit – BBG

TRY:

Lira rallies as opposition bags landslide victory in Istanbul BBG

Erodogan dealt stunning blow as Istanbul elects rival candidate BBG

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: A light push up through into the Tokyo session and the market testing to the 1.2725 level into Mid-Tokyo before drifting back to the opening levels for the move into the London session, quick selling with the market reacting to media stories of arguments between PM potential Boris Johnson and his girlfriend, whether trouble making left leaning types it did have the medias attention for a short while, the market dipping through to the 1.2680 level before pausing initially and holding the figure level for a brief period before losing more ground as some of the numbers in Europe came in better than expected, Cable tested down to the 1.2650 levels for the move into the NYK session making the lows on the opening before starting a slow recovery through to the end of London and then moving quickly through to the 1.2700 level and continuing on a steady rise through the balance of the session having as Cable was dragged along by the rising Euro and pushing through to just below the 1.2750 level for the high of the day and the close.
  • JPY: A quiet move through into early Tokyo saw the market holding around the 107.30 level before dipping on an attempt to test the 107.00 level however, the bids were thick enough to hold the attempt and after several hours of trying the market moved into the grey hour and a quick recovery through to the London opening to push to the opening levels again and London buyers pushed it through to the 107.50 areas and holding quietly through to deep into the NYK session before moving for a second time higher with conviction with similarities to a failed option play to the downside quickly pushing beyond the 107.70 area before drifting off through to the close returning to the opening levels.
  • AUD: A fairly quiet day for the Oz overall, with the market opening around the 0.6920 level and making a slow move through into the Tokyo session pushing through towards the 0.6940 level and the highs of the day before holding quietly through to the London session and testing back through to make the lows on the run to the NYK opening and holding steady around the 0.6905 areas deep into the session before starting a slow and steady rise pushing through to the 0.6930 level and holding quietly through to the close.
  • EUR: A slow slight rise from the opening around the 1.1290 level to test through towards the 1.1310 level and a quiet range around the 1.1300 level into the grey hour, steady selling in the grey hour and through into the first hour of trading in London saw the market make its lows around the 1.1285 areas before recovering on the early numbers and gapping a little higher on mixed numbers for Germany however, it was only to the 1.1315 level and held in a tight range through to the NYK session before starting a slow steady rise through the balance of the session and increasing in pace in mid-NYK to test through to the 1.1370 level triggering some weak stops and slowly climbing to the high just above the 1.1375 level and finishing just off the highs.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

JPY         National CPI (YoY) (MAY) A 0.7% | C 0.7% | P 0.9%

JPY         National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (MAY) A 0.8% | C 0.7% | P 0.9%

JPY         Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food, Energy (YoY) (MAY) A 0.5% | C 0.5% | P 0.6%

JPY         Nikkei Japan PMI Manufacturing (JUN P) A 49.5 | P 49.8

JPY         Nationwide Department Store Sales (YoY) (MAY) A -0.8 | P -1.1%

CHF        Money Supply M3 (YoY) (MAY) A 3.4% | P 3.5%

EUR        Markit France Manufacturing PMI (JUN P) A 52 | C 50.9 | P 50.6

EUR        Markit France Services PMI (JUN P) A 53.1 | C 51.6 | P 51.5

EUR        Markit France Composite PMI (JUN P) A 52.9 | C 51.4 | P 51.2

EUR        Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI (JUN P) A 45.4 | C 44.6 | P 44.3

EUR        Markit Germany Services PMI (JUN P) A 55.6 | C 55.3 | P 55.4

EUR        Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI (JUN P) A 52.6 | C 52.5 | P 52.6

EUR        Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (JUN P) A 47.8 | C 48.0 | P 47.7

EUR        Markit Eurozone Services PMI (JUN P) A 53.4 | C 53.0 | P 52.9

EUR        Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (JUN P) A 52.1 | C 52.0 | P 51.8

GBP        Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) (MAY) A 10.6B | P -7.1b

GBP        Central Government NCR (MAY) A 16.6B | P -9.8b

GBP        Public Sector Net Borrowing (MAY) A 4.46b | C 3.2b | P 5.0b

GBP        PSNB ex Banking Groups (MAY) A 5.1B | C 4.2b | P 5.8b

CAD       Retail Sales (MoM) (APR) A 0.10% | C 0.2% | P 1.1%

CAD       Retail Sales Ex Auto (MoM) (APR) A 0.1% | C 0.4% | P 1.7%

USD        Markit US Manufacturing PMI (JUN P) A 50.1 | C 50.5 | P 50.5

USD        Markit US Services PMI (JUN P) A 50.7 | C 51.0 | P 50.9

USD        Markit US Composite PMI (JUN P) A 50.6 | P 50.9

USD        Existing Home Sales (MAY) A 5.34M | C 5.25m | P 5.19m

USD        Existing Home Sales (MoM) (MAY) A 2.5% | C 1.2% | P -0.4%

 

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

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LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.