Daily FX Market Commentary

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 107.895 | EURUSD 1.1286 | AUDUSD 0.69939 | NZDUSD 0.66711 | USDCAD 1.31053 | USDCHF 0.98625 | GBPUSD 1.25937 |

LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.12951 | 1.12861

USDJPY                 107.901 | 107.535

GBPUSD               1.26000 | 1.25873

USDCHF               0.98615 | 0.98343

AUDUSD              0.69994 | 0.69858

USDCAD               1.31132 | 1.30961

NZDUSD               0.66837 | 0.66735

EURCHF                1.11342 | 1.11085

EURGBP               0.89683 | 0.89612

EURJPY                 121.801 | 121.427

For Today

  • GBP: Opening just above the 1.2590 level the market slowly rose to the 1.2600 areas unable to push through the market dipped a few times to the 1.2590 areas and ranged in that area until late in the session dipping eventually and slowly through the 1.2590 into the final hour through to the grey period, downside bids remain through to the 1.2550 levels and are likely to increase on a test through the level increasing the closer the market moves towards the 1.2500 areas with strong stops likely on a push through the 1.2500 area to open a deeper move, topside offers light through to the 1.2650 areas with limited congestion in the area building to stronger level into and through 1.2700 with some light stops through the level, further pushes are likely to see stronger offers increasing through the 1.2750 level and weak stops likely on a strong push through the 1.2780 areas.
  • JPY: USDJPY slowly drifted from the opening around the 107.90 level moving through to the Tokyo fix around the 107.85-80 area and then dropping steadily through to the 107.55 area before finding sufficient support to arrest any further downside movement, the market continued to range around the 107.60 level then until the grey hours in very slow trading. downside light bids through to the congested 107.40-20 areas and likely to continue until the 106.80 areas break with weak stops likely to dominate the downside through to the 106.50 areas before some bids are likely to reappear, topside offers cleared through to the 108.50 level however, congestion still remains and likely to increase on any test to the 108.80 level with weak stops likely on a push through the 109.00 level and stronger congestion in the 108.40-60 areas likely to limit further gains.
  • AUD: Very quiet trading for the Oz with the market opening just above the 0.6990 level and ranging in a tight range through the session deeper into the Tokyo period, light selling of AUDJPY saw the market drift off through into the mid 0.6980’s before slowly returning and testing towards the 0.7000 level for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers from the current levels are a little thin on a move through the 0.7050 and then some stronger offers appearing to slow the market from squeezing higher, Downside bids light through the 69 cents level with limited stops likely to appear before stronger bids start to reappear on a move through the 0.6850 level and increasing the closer to the 68 cents level the market gets.
  • EUR: Opening around the 1.1290 level the market remained mired around the level through to the grey hours with a slightly increasing range as the market moved through Tokyo to the grey hour, the market struggled with the 1.1295 area and never really challenged either side of the market. Congestive offers still remain to the topside with possible weak stops above the 1.1320 level and lighter congestion from there through the usual 1.1340-60 area to build into stronger offers on any push for the 1.1400 area, even through this level the market continues to see resistance through the topside and the market, downside bids congested on any dip through the 1.1260 areas and likely to continue into the 1.1240 level however, even though it lightens a little the move through the 1.1200 areas is likely to see stronger bids appearing on any dip to test the 1.1150 level.

 

 

Overnight News

USD:

Trump says he’ll nominate Christopher Waller to Fed board

EUR:

Christine Legarde is being considered to succeed Mario Draghi at ECB – BBG

JPY:

BoJ’s Funo says may keep current ultra-low rates beyond spring 2020

GBP:

UK Economy may need more help as trade war, Brexit risks grown BoE’s Carney

IMF:

IMF board names American David Lipton as interim leader

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

NZD       QV House Prices (YoY) (JUN) A 2.0% | P 2.3%

AUD       AiG Performance of Service Index (JUN) A 52.2 | P 52.5

AUD       CBA Australia PMI Services (JUN F) A 52.6 | P 53.3

AUD       CBA Australia PMI Composite (JUN F) A 52.5 | P 53.1

GBP        BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (JUN) A -0.1% | P 0.8%

JPY         Markit Japan PMI Composite (JUN) A 50.8 | P 50.7

JPY         Markit Japan PMI Services (JUN) A 51.9 | P 51.7

NZD       ANZ Commodity Price (JUN) A -3.9% | P 0.1%

AUD       Building Approvals (YoY) (MAY) A -19.6% | C -21.5% | P -23.4%

AUD       Building Approvals (MoM) (MAY) A 0.7% | C 0.0% | P -3.4%

AUD       Trade Balance (MAY) A A$5.745b| C A$5.250b | P A$4.871b

CNY        Caixin China PMI Composite (JUN) A 50.6 | P 51.5

CNY        Caixin China PMI Services (JUN) A 52 | C 52.6 | P 52.7

07:45     EUR        Markit Italy Services PMI (JUN) C 50.0 | P 50.0

07:45     EUR        Markit Italy Composite PMI (JUN) C 49.5 | P 49.9

07:50     EUR        Markit France Services PMI (JUN F) C 53.1 | P 53.1

07:50     EUR        Markit France Composite PMI (JUN F) C 52.9 | P 52.9

07:55     EUR        Markit Germany Services PMI (JUN F) C 55.6 | P 55.6

07:55     EUR        Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI (JUN F) C 52.6 | P 52.6

08:00     EUR        Markit Eurozone Services PMI (JUN F) C 53.4 | P 53.4

08:00     EUR        Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (JUN F) C 52.1 | P 52.1

08:30     GBP        Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI (JUN) C 51.0 | P 51.0

08:30     GBP        Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI (JUN) C 51.0 | P 50.9

11:00     USD        MBA Mortgage Applications (JUN 28) P 1.3%

11:30     USD        Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (JUN) P 85.9%

12:15     USD        ADP Employment Change (JUN) C 140k | P 27k

12:30     CAD       International Merchandise Trade (Canadian dollar) (MAY) P -0.97b

12:30     USD        Trade Balance (MAY) C -$53.4b | P -$50.8b

12:30     USD        Initial Jobless Claims (JUN 29) C 220k | P 227k

12:30     USD        Continuing Claims (JUN 22) C 1681k | P 1688k

13:45     USD        Markit US Services PMI (JUN F) C 50.7 | P 50.7

13:45     USD        Markit US Composite PMI (JUN F) P 50.6

14:00     USD        Factory Orders (MAY) C -0.5% | P -0.8%

14:00     USD        Factory Orders Ex Trans (MAY) P 0.3%

14:00     USD        Durable Goods Orders (MAY F) P -1.3%

14:00     USD        Durables Ex Transportation (MAY F) P 0.3%

14:00     USD        ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services Composite (JUN) C 56.0 | P 56.9

14:30     USD        DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (JUN 28) P -1.28m

16:00     USD        EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (JUN 28) P 98

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: Opening around the 1.2640 levels and a meagre rise through to just below the 1.2650 area before drifting through Tokyo until late in the session and a quick test below the 1.2630 supportive area, the move into the grey hour saw the market bounce back to the opening levels before dropping back into the London session with unenthralling House and construction numbers, the market pushed to the 1.2620 level and held for a brief period through to midmorning before dropping through to the 1.2610 level and the early lows of London, the market managed to slowly push back through to the opening levels through to the first few hours into the NYK session before Carney’s speech put paid to the market and a quick drop through to the 1.2590 however, one has to point out this is the same BoE Governor that predicted mass unemployment in 2016 and much worse once the Brexit vote was announced, having tested through the 1.2600 level the market struggled through to the end of London rising a little and eventually pushing above the 1.2610 areas holding quietly before starting a steady drift through to the close holding just above the lows around the 1.2585 area.
  • JPY: Opening around the 108.45 areas and dropping quickly on the opening in Tokyo to test the 108.30 level before slowly rising through to midmorning in Tokyo to push to its highs for the day just above the opening, the market drifted to the grey hour holding quietly around the 108.35 levels and early London tried the topside in a weak rally but as with the previous pushes the opening level proved to be too much before drifting off through to the 108.20 level, not until deep into NYK did the market move lower testing steadily through to the 107.75 areas and basing there through to the close in a quiet session.
  • AUD: Limited day and considering the well projected cut in interest rates fairly uneventful with the market rising in the Tokyo session from the opening around the 0.6965 initially testing a little to the downside but the market started to slowly rise through to the 0.6980 areas, the release saw the market spike lower to make the lows into the 0.6950’s before snapping back and then trading to the 0.6985 area and ranging to deep into the London session around the 0.6980 areas struggling to test above the 0.6990 areas rising slowly into the NYK session and making the high just above the 70 cents level before drifting to a close around the 0.6990 areas.
  • EUR: A quiet session for the Euro through the Asian session slipping a little on the Tokyo opening to test the 1.1280 level for the first time, the market recovered to the opening level and then slowly drifted through the 1.1280 level testing to the 1.1275 areas and holding quietly through to the grey hour, the market rallied slowly through into the London session rising towards the 1.1300 areas failing the first time and then pushed through to spike to the 1.1320 level triggering some weak stops the rally was quickly over and the market dropped back to the 1.1300 level and holding quietly through to midmorning in NYK dipping through to the opening levels before a slow steady rise through to the 1.1310 level before ending the day in a slow drift through to the close. Unchanged on the day.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

NZD       Building Permits (MoM) (MAY) A 13.2% | P -7.9%

JPY         Monetary Base (YoY) (JUN) A 4.0% | P 3.6%

AUD       RBA Cash Rate Target (JUL 2) A 1.00% | C 1.00% | P 1.25%

EUR        German Retail Sales (MoM) (MAY) A -0.6% | C 0.5% | P -2.0%

EUR        German Retail Sales (YoY) (MAY) A 4.0% | C 2.7% | P 4.0% | R 4.6%

GBP        Nationwide House PX (MoM) (JUN) A 0.1% | C 0.2% | P -0.2%

GBP        Nationwide House Px n.s.a. (YoY) (JUN) A 0.5% | C 0.5% | P 0.6%

GBP        Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI (JUN) A 43.1 | C 49.2 | P 48.6

EUR        Euro-Zone PPI (MoM) (MAY) A -0.1% | C 0.1% | P -0.3%

EUR        Euro-Zone PPI (YoY) (MAY) A 1.6% | C 1.8% | P 2.6%

AUD       RBA Governor Lowe speaks in Darwin

USD        Fed’s Williams Speaks on Global Economic and Policy Outlook

CAD       MLI Leading Indicator (MoM) (MAY) A 0.2% | P 0.4%

CAD       RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI (JUN) A 49.2 | P 49.1

GBP        BOE’s Carney Speaks in Bournemouth.

USD        Fed’s Mester to Speak on Economy in London

 

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

 

LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.

Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.

 

If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Exchange has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Exchange will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Exchange does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Exchange or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.

LMAX Exchange will clearly identify and mark any content it publishes or that is approved by LMAX Exchange.

FX and CFDs are leveraged products that can result in losses exceeding your deposit. They are not suitable for everyone so please ensure you fully understand the risks involved. The information on this website is not directed at residents of the United States of America, Australia (we will only deal with Australian clients who are "wholesale clients" as defined under the Corporations Act 2001), Canada (although we may deal with Canadian residents who meet the "Permitted Client" criteria), Singapore or any other jurisdiction where FX trading and/or CFD trading is restricted or prohibited by local laws or regulations.