Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 107.821 | EURUSD 1.12846 | AUDUSD 0.70224 | NZDUSD 0.66853 | USDCAD 1.30485 | USDCHF 0.98492 | GBPUSD 1.25788 |

LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.12878 | 1.12782

USDJPY                 107.883 | 107.784

GBPUSD               1.25839 | 1.25751

USDCHF               0.98548 | 0.98459

AUDUSD              0.70284 | 0.7022

USDCAD               1.30609 | 1.30467

NZDUSD               0.66940 | 0.66797

EURCHF                1.11182 | 1.1112

EURGBP               0.89722 | 0.89645

EURJPY                 121.707 | 121.612

For Today

  • GBP: A very quiet session with the market initially pushing towards the 1.2585 areas in early trading to drop back and make the lows steadily into the mid Tokyo session around the 1.2575 level, the market then pushed off the lows and headed into the grey hour testing the 1.2585 level to make the range for the session, downside bids remain through to the 1.2550 levels and are likely to increase on a test through the level increasing the closer the market moves towards the 1.2500 areas with strong stops likely on a push through the 1.2500 area to open a deeper move, topside offers light through to the 1.2650 areas with limited congestion in the area building to stronger level into and through 1.2700 with some light stops through the level, further pushes are likely to see stronger offers increasing through the 1.2750 level and weak stops likely on a strong push through the 1.2780 areas.
  • JPY: Opening just above the 107.80 level early trading saw the market holding around the level with minor dips below before rising from the Tokyo fix to push through to the 107.88 areas and unable to do much more than that, the market held through to the grey area around the 107.85 level in very quiet trading, , downside light bids through to the congested 107.40-20 areas and likely to continue until the 106.80 areas break with weak stops likely to dominate the downside through to the 106.50 areas before some bids are likely to reappear, topside offers again building through to the 108.50 level however, congestion still remains and likely to increase on any test to the 108.80 level with weak stops likely on a push through the 109.00 level and stronger congestion in the 108.40-60 areas likely to limit further gains.
  • AUD: Very quiet with the market marking time around the 0.7025 level and unable to move beyond a limited range however, at least it stayed more or less away from the opening lows, Topside offers from the current levels are a little thin on a move through the 0.7050 and then some stronger offers appearing to slow the market from squeezing higher, Downside bids light through the 69 cents level with limited stops likely to appear before stronger bids start to reappear on a move through the 0.6850 level and increasing the closer to the 68 cents level the market gets.
  • EUR: Rising only slightly from the opening around the 1.1284 area the market pushed through to make its highs near 1.1288 before drifting back through the Tokyo session to test into the 1.1278 area and then ranging around the 1.1280 in what was a shockingly quiet session for the FX market, topside with possible weak stops above the 1.1320 level and lighter congestion from there through the usual 1.1340-60 area to build into stronger offers on any push for the 1.1400 area, even through this level the market continues to see resistance through the topside and the market, downside bids congested on any dip through the 1.1260 areas and likely to continue into the 1.1240 level however, even though it lightens a little the move through the 1.1200 areas is likely to see stronger bids appearing on any dip to test the 1.1150 level

 

Overnight News

JPY/KRW:

Japan’s testy trade row strikes at Samsung

KRW/JPY:

  1. Koreans call for boycott of Japanese cars beer and cosmetics as trade war intensifies

JPY:

Household spending rises at fastest pace in 4 years

USD/CAD/CNY:

Trump discussed detained Canadians with Xi – Trudeau

IRR/GBP:

Tehran fumes as Britain seizes Iranian oil tanker over Syria sanctions

 

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

05:00                     JPY Leading Index CI (MAY P) A | C 95.3 | P 95.9

05:00                     JPY Coincident Index (MAY P) A | C 103.2 | P 102.1

06:00                     EUR German Factory Orders (MoM) (MAY) C -0.1% | P 0.3%

06:00                     EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (MAY) C -6.3% | P 5.3%

07:30                     GBP Halifax House Prices (MoM) (JUN) C -0.4% | P 0.5%

08:30                     GBP Unit Labour Costs (YoY) (1Q) P 3.1%

12:30                     CAD Net Change in Employment (JUN) P 27.7k

12:30                     CAD Unemployment Rate (JUN) High P 5.4%

12:30                     CAD Hourly Wage Rate Permanent Employees (YoY) (JUN) P 2.6%

12:30                     CAD Full Time Employment Change (JUN) P 27.7K

12:30                     USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls (JUN) High C 163k | P 75k

12:30                     USD Unemployment Rate (JUN) High C 3.6% | P 3.6%

12:30                     USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (JUN) C 0.3% | P 0.2%

12:30                     USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (JUN) C 3.2% | P 3.1%

12:30                     USD Average Weekly Hours All Employees (JUN) C 34.4 | P 34.4

 

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: Choppy but well contained range through the day with the market trading around the 1.2580 levels for the most part, early buying saw the market rising through into the Tokyo session and testing above the 1.2590 levels to make the highs for the day, the market returned to the 1.2580 level and ranged in a quiet range through to London, London were quick sellers to make the lows just below the 1.2570 level and that was the range for the day with the market moving backwards and forwards throughout the session to the close with the market tightening into the end of the day.
  • JPY: A steady drift from the opening arouhd the 107.85 areas and testing to its lows into mid Tokyo before rising through to the grey hours from the 107.70 level to hold quietly through into the London session around the 107.80 level in very quiet trading, the market continue to range quietly through to the close with very little deviation from the 107.80 areas to finish the day almost unchanged.
  • AUD: The Oz managed a minor rally through towards the 0.7050 level before dropping back again to range around the 0.7035 until the grey hour, London were steady sellers to push the Oz donw to the 0.7020 areas where the market remained through the session having tested to the 0.7015 areas.
  • EUR: No real difference for the Euro than the other pairs with limited volume through the day and the Asian session seeing the high on a push from the opening just below the 1.1280 area to test into the Tokyo session around the 1.1290 level and continuing the move in mid Tokyo to touch lightly through the 1.1295 level before dropping back a little quicker to hold just below 1.1285 and range around the level into London, some minor gyrations around the Euro numbers and holding its level through to the NYK session were some quick selling from the opening saw the market make its lows just above the 1.1270 level before gradually rising through to finish the day in the same 1.1285 area.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

AUD       Retail Sales (MoM) (MAY) A 0.1% | C 0.2% | P -0.1%

06:30     CHF        CPI (MoM) (JUN) A 0.0% | C -0.1% | P 0.3%

06:30     CHF        CPI (YoY) (JUN) A 0.6% | C 0.5% | P 0.6%

06:30     CHF        CPI EU Harmonized (MoM) (JUN) 0.2% | P -0.2%

06:30     CHF        CPI EU Harmonized (YoY) (JUN) A 0.7% | P 0.5%

06:30     CHF        CPI Core (YoY) (JUN) A | C 0.6% | P 0.6%

07:00     EUR        ECB Chief Economist Lane Speaks in Frankfurt

07:30     EUR        Markit Germany Construction PMI (JUN) A 50.0 | P 51.4

09:00     EUR        Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (MAY) A -0.3% | C 0.4% | P -0.4%

09:00     EUR        Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (MAY) A 1.3% | C 1.6% | P 1.5%

09:10     EUR        ECB’s de Guindos, Enria, Koenig Speak at Conference in Lisbon

11:00     MXN      Consumer Confidence Index (JUN) A 106.1 | P 108.1

 

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